SOLGOLD NAV ESTIMATE Part 110 Sep 2025 12:14
Been having a look at Stas20’s work and also trying understand more about why Solgold’s management are so excited about prospects currently.
Please bear in mind these figures are estimates only but are, nevertheless estimates aiming to be plausible and realistic. None of us know whether Solgold will end up as a producer or will, in fact, sell some or all of the company.
This is all just an opinion and could be right or wrong.
In essence, I concur with Stas20 NAV of 164p and actually see a slightly higher figure based on revised metals’ prices, etc. From market data, it is clear that Tier 1 assets purchased over the last 10 years ago have been sold at between 0.8 and 1.1 of NAV, on average.
Back in 2022, SolGold put out its Pre-Feasibility Study for Alpala. The problem is, that study was built to tick regulatory boxes, not to capture the full picture. It only covered about 18% of Cascabel’s resource and used very cautious metal prices i.e. $3.85 lb copper, $1,750 oz gold and $22.50 oz silver. By rule, NI 43-101 keeps a PFS tied tightly to proven reserves, so all the upside beyond that was left out.
Even with that restrictive framework, the base case came in at $3.2 billion NPV (post-tax, 8% discount). With just over 3 billion shares in issue, that was already worth about 79p a share so noticeably higher than the 46p per share numbers you see in broker notes.
1. Updating to today’s prices
Copper today is closer to $4.50 lb and gold has pushed up to around $3,640 oz. SolGold’s own PFS sensitivities show that each 10 cents lb copper adds roughly $110 million to NPV, and every $100 oz gold adds about $133 million. Plugging in current prices gives us around $6.4 billion NPV, or roughly 159p per share. (NB: I realise that brokers would never use current spot but suitors are able to reference prices as they wish and are not constrained in the same way brokers are. Suitors have to make a business case to their investors). Apart from anything else, there is a huge gap between where we are now and the NAV estimate i.e. a large contingency.
2. Bringing in Tandayama (TAM)
The PFS ignored TAM entirely. TAM is a shallow, gold-rich open-pit starter project that could ease the upfront capital bill and get cash flow moving earlier. Broker commentary suggests it could add $0.75–1.0 billion in value. Include this and NAV climbs into the 177–183p per share range.
3. Adjusting for the Franco/Osisko gold stream
Of course, the gold streams do skim off value. They cut around 10to15% from project NPV. That brings the spot-plus-TAM range down to roughly 150–165p per share.
4. Porvenir upside
The Brokers assign token value to Porvenir, even though the drilling has already shown it could be another major porphyry. As a placeholder, giving Porvenir even $0.5 to 1.0 billion of NPV adds another 12 to 25p per share.
Sign In
Follow the stocks
