RE: BHP FRIENDLY TAKEOVER INBOUND27 Aug 2025 09:53
Quady,
Broker notes are never 'worthless'. If they were, why would companies pay folk such as RC, HP and Canaccord to produce them?
Broker notes from company brokers always need to be reviewed as such and one makes a decision about that and what it could mean.
The notes do provide important ideas such as:
1. Professional analysis and modelling
The most recent Red Cloud note, for example, is based on detailed discounted cash flow (DCF) modelling of Cascabel using the 2024 PFS data, adjusted for metal prices, royalties, and financing assumptions. That is real analytical work, not just marketing
2. Sector context and comparables
It benchmarks SolGold against explorer/developer peers on P/NAV and EV/lb CuEq, showing SolGold trades at a deep discount (0.11x vs 0.30x). This type of relative valuation is valuable context for investors
3. Identification of catalysts and risks
The report lists near-term milestones (DFS, ESIA, ExploreCo spin-out, etc.) and outlines risks (geopolitical, financing, execution). These are essential for framing investment decisions, even if one disagrees with the optimism
4. Independent target setting
It sets a target price (C$0.75/sh, a 456% implied return) based on applying a risk discount (0.6x NAV). While assumptions may be debated, the methodology is transparent and follows standard industry practice.
5. Market signalling
Broker coverage provides credibility with institutions and may influence liquidity, especially when majors (BHP, Newmont, Jiangxi) are on the register. Even if investors disagree, the report signals how the market may be guided.
Overall, then, the various broker notes provide valuable frameworks and reference points. They are not investment advice but provide valuable pointers. An excellent example of this was Stas20’s work based on the latest broker notes available at the time plus his own research and that of Needagain’s to come up with an estimated NAV of 164p which, as you know, I agree with.