RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: Corallians value and sale?2 Feb 2022 17:06
Nope, you can’t do that.
Bottom line as someone has pointed out is that it’s what someone is prepared to pay, and that’s a function of risk tolerance and how many bidders.
NPV is as you say the unrisked discounted cashflows and includes all costs and revenues that are input into the model, sellers tend choose more aggressive pricing and lower Capex. Of course there is risk in this project, for example. Is there a chance the Capex will overrun, is there a chance the well might not deliver the volumes or rates anticipated, what is the price of gas for the first few years, what is the cost of entry to the pipeline system and is that fixed or based on opex sharing. Will the project get OGA approval on time and start producing at the time expected or will it be late…and so on.
Your comment about Capex was slightly misleading. Yes Capex is included in the calculation, but of course the Capex is not something the seller delivers to the buyer, the buyer has to provide that. The buyer will asses the risks based on their own evaluation in a data room, a calculation of potential NPVs discounted by the risks and including their own cost of capital as the discount rate.
Then they’ll offer as little as they can get away with…
So in my own view that will be in the £10’s mm at best, probably with a large proportion being contingent on the project meeting milestones. Anyone thinking £100mm is going to plop onto Eric and Ernie’s desk this year will be sadly disappointed..