Member Info for Redacted

There seem to be a lot of the inevitable 'told you so' comments on here tonight, but thankfully a few useful ones as well.

Personally I need to digest what little info has so far been released and see if there's anything in the weekend press that might shed a bit more light onto what might happen next. There are more questions than answers so far, so it seems a bit too early to be jumping to any conclusions just yet.

First thoughts are that PIs are going to be shafted - as usual. Is SDRY really on the brink? That's news to me if it's true. If it's not then why does it need JD's money, especially at a 'very material discount to the current share price'? What other options are available or are being considered? And why is JD still CEO? Is that not a conflict of interest while he is still in discussions with the Company 'in respect of alternative structures'? That looks like the Board are assisting JD in his aims rather than looking after the interests of all shareholders, as is their proper job.

Call me naive...

It doesn't cost any party anything to re-instate GENL's right to develop the gas fields, except for some legal costs and time, so to me that is the only viable outcome should GENL win the arbitration - the KRG can't pay and the FGI won't.

What GENL does then is what I can't figure out.

Sheltie, "OR they decide to carry on 'as is', cut costs, close...."

I'm not sure that is an option for JD now, is it? Surely if his attempt to take SDRY private fails his position would at best be very difficult to maintain, maybe even untenable?

I'm pretty puzzled that another potential suitor hasn't yet emerged, even if their end game is no more than to act as a spoiler. I'm sure none of SDRY's nearest competitors want to see JD getting it for a song, and in so doing gaining competitive advantage over them. So why would they not express an interest for no other reason than to prevent him, or at least force him into paying a higher price than he might otherwise do?

It would certainly put the cat amongst the pigeons, would it not?

I was invested in CNE when they won their arbitration case against the Indian Government. Enforcement then would have been via the New York Convention, although the GoI eventually paid up without the need for it. It allows for confiscation of assets held in any country that is a signatory to the Convention, which is most of the Western world I think, so it certainly has teeth.

I'm still of the opinion that it will not come to that, though. I suspect that re-instatment of GENL's rights to develop the fields will effectively be any award, and not much in the way of hard cash. Where GENL goes from there is another matter. Just my opinion.

I think too many people get hung up on the LSE, looking at it in isolation. In fact is is part of something much, much bigger, the City of London financial centre. Still officially the second larget in the world:

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/091114/worlds-top-financial-cities.asp#:~:text=The%20top%20global%20financial%20cities,Zurich%2C%20Tokyo%2C%20and%20Chicago.

Trading stocks is actually only a samll part of the financial services industry, and in terms of profitability, much higer fees can be made from the myriad of other services available in London.

NYSE might seem like a good idea, and a quick buck may be made, but in the long run THG will just end up a very small player in a very large pool. Then what? Does MM really looks like he has a plan for what happens next?

Another concern of mine is that US stocks are looking very toppy. A few megga-caps are propping it all up, much as they did before the dot-com bubble burst. I'm not saying that the LSE will be immune to the US market popping, it won't, but it might end up being the better move to stay away from it for now.

The LSE certainly isn't perfect but be careful what you wish for is my take.

I'm in the same boat jc_123. Paid over 10 quid for my first tranche of shares and it's been all down hill ever since.

My thoughts are that neither the KRG (nor FGI for that matter) need cough up much money should they lose the arbitration case, certainly not the $1.4Bn being discussed. All they need do is restore the previous situation and so allow Genel to develop the fields. I'm not sure how that would work out exactly as Genel probably couldn't do that by themselves, but at least they would regain the right to do so, with the KRG keeping to their side of the original contract. That might seem simplistic but, to me at least, ofers a way out for everyone. Let's hope so!

Anyone got an idea of what the effect would be on Genel if that $20.60/b figure was implemented?

Cheers.

Does anyone think existing shareholders will be given any preference on the upcoming offering of the Govenrment's (our) shares?

I'm not sure how that would work, particularly in my case as all of my holdings are in a SIPP, but surely it would make sense to give current holders some sort of incentive to invest futher, no?

I'd be interested to hear what others think might happen.