RE: Billions to millions25 Oct 2024 09:18
Some here are still in denial over what is happening. I, and it seems a few others now, have moved on to anger.
Regardless of what we speculate/think/want/hope/pray might happen, the market works with facts. And as the facts stand they don't much like what they see. Share price is very much a forward looking metric of a company's prospects or potential. So if the market really believed a re-rate was warranted it would already be reflected in the SP, but they don't, and it isn't. And if the market believed a bid was incoming, that too would be reflected in the SP, but they don't, so it isn't either. In fact the market sees very few positives at the moment, hence the SP is on its backside, struggling find a support level. Hopefully that will change after the Circular is released but as yet they are not convinced.
You could hear that during the analyst call. There were some difficult questions asked, from a sceptical audience, which is unusual. MM tried to come out fighting but his answers just weren't that convincing. The problem is they are suspicious of MM's intentions and motives. Can you blame them? Ingenuity has been valued at the square root of FA, mainly thanks to MM's mismanagement, but think what it would cost now to build it from scratch. We all know because most of THG's earnings for the last few years (and some) has gone in to getting it to where it is now. So why has it been valued so low? Well maybe that's because it was valued by MM, for the good and benefit of him and his chums.
And before anyone says we can all 'roll' with it, yes, I suppose we can. Just as long as our shares are not held in a SIPP or ISA, which I suspect is the case for most of us, and we can trust MM not to dilute us out of existence over time, which we obviously can't. For us there is no real choice, which is why the demerger has been structured in that way. Obvious really in hindsight.
So, to all those that have been crying out for a 'capital event' for the last God knows how long, I hope you are happy now? Careful what you wish for I say.
Well played Matt!