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NAFTA went out of the window over 4 years ago.

1pencil, see ASOS RNS yesterday:

ASOS (UK, 3092725) will be added to the FTSE 250 Index and deleted from the FTSE SmallCap Index.

All changes effective from 3 February 2025.

Rumour has it the Reeves and Miliband are at loggerheads over this sort of stuff - and that Starmer is inclined to back his Chancellor. Time will tell who wins out but in the mean time we can live in hope that all the madness will stop sometime soon. I'm all for saving the planet, but not at the expense of wrecking the UK economy. Why does the UK always feel it needs to go further in this sort of stuff? The rest of the world are laughing at us. It's complete madness.

I'm trying to understand why the FCF target appears to have missed so badly. Brent averaged around $81 in 2024 so full year FCF of $156m was $44m short of their minimum target, while expendature was all within forecast.

From the May 2024 AGM Trading Update:

· Full year free cash flow guidance remains $200-300 million at $80/bbl, with a weighting towards the second half of the year largely driven by the timing of cash tax payments, liftings and revenue receipts and phasing of capital spend.

Then, from today's TU:

-Forecast free cash flow of c.$200 million at $80/bbl, including c.$50 million of overdue gas receipts in Ghana from 2024.

So it seems the overdue gas payments are the cause of the FCF target miss, otherwise they would have been within the $200m - $300m guidance? Maybe that's why we haven't had the usual Trading Update fall in SP? Not a great result but certainly not a bad one either.

However, their forecast of c$200m this year includes the overdue $50m for gas so is really $150m, and that's at $80 oil. Anyone care to guess what Brent will average this year? God only knows with 'The Donald' back in the Whitehouse.

Yes the 2025 bonds will be paid at amturity, but the money used to pay them also needs to ne re-financed (or re-negotiated) by June, so it has only been a can kicking exercise so far. They need to get all of the debt managed properly, whatever that takes. Until the debt is taken care of, and I mean in a sustainable, long-term way, it is going to be hanging over us. The 2026 bond repayment date will be upon us before we know it, and we can't allow these things to keep on dictating the narrative.

And now it seems that selling off the family silver is the way to manage debt. Anyone got any ideas of what they might let go, and how much it might be worth? What can TLW sell of that isn't going to affect current production?

I know that feeling, Jbeez!

I also topped up recently and thought I'd bagged myself a bargin at 21.4pps. But look where we are now. WTF?

There was just an outside chance of an RNS this morning stating that the debt was re-financed on half-decent terms, a positive Kenya update, or some other bit of good news to distract from tomorrow's update. But nothing. If tomorrow's production numbers are as bad as some on here are prediciting then who knows where TLW will be by next weekend?

Going by past performance, not me, that's for sure!

Good luck for tomorrow...

What planet are the KRG on? $36m in costs for arbitration. WTF were they doing? Surely bungs, bribes and brown envelopes cannot be included? :-)

Back in the real world, in which the KRG seem not to live, the LCIA will not take kindly to anyone over-inflating their costs. They may even decide to award them nothing if it turns out that they were wildly over-egged.

Let's hope so.

Best quote I've ever heard from one a top economist (who's name I unfortunately can't remember) when asked "whats the most important thing you have ever learned about money" replied "It shouldn't be made of paper".

I've not actually read it yet so can't comment:

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/US-Intervention-in-Iraqs-Oil-Dispute-Sparks-Backlash.html

Looks like you're one of the planks PeterH1 is referring to, bots.

I hate to be the resident doom monger again but the cable rate is irrelevant to us at the moment, unless I'm missing something? All costs, debt etc. are US$ denominated so, until TLW start to pay us a dividend that needs to be converted to sterling, it makes no difference to us.

The OP being around the $80 mark should help reduce the debt more quickly though, hopefully bringing that pay-day closer. TLW need to refinance the debt first and interest rates are staying higher for longer, so that is going to cost us more that had been hoped for. How much more I'm not sure, but more it will be.

Ha ha! £600m in a 2.8 trillion economy doesn't even qualify as a rounding error. It's no more than noise. And it's over 5 years FFS. I wouldn't be bragging about it if was Rachel from accounts. What a joke! And they haven't told us what the reciprocal cost to the UK will be, but the reality is, for the amounts being talked about, is doesn't really make any difference, does it?

Anton, if you don't like what they (or maybe it's me you're having a go at?) have to say then just filter them. They are entitled to their opinion, but that just shows what side of the fence they sit on. Personally I like to see both sides. Sometimes a difference of opinion can be useful, sometime it's not. Just take it for what it is and move on. I doubt any of us on here has enough influence to affect any other, never mind the SP.

Keep going guys, it's working. The SP has just gone blue!!! :-)

I think we are all (by all I mean all of us genuine LTHs) disappointed by the lack of response to winning the Tribunal. But what is needed is the BoD to get off their ass and do something. 2025 bonds may be 'covered' but that's with a very expensive revolving credit facility. Those bonds need to be re-financed properly, and now that a major obstacle has been removed, there's no reason why TLW can't do that at a much better rate. Same goes for the 2026 bonds in another 6 months or so.

Unfortunately, until we get some news that is actually going to make us some real money sentiment isn't going to change. Remember, TLW did not make any money from the Tribunal result (other than a couple of £ mil in costs), they only had a potential liability removed.

OP seems to be firmly above $75 atm so TLW should be doing much better that the current SP suggests.

It could just as easily be spun the other way, TankerQ.

The new Govenrment will milk the current mess for all they can get, I think we would all agree on that point. But it also gives them the opportunity to build bridges and draw a line in the sand - whilst at the same time trashing the old lot for the mess they have created. A win, win.

Also, they won't want any of this to come back and bite them later, so why not get it all out of the way now and be done with it?

Correct M3. From the half-year results:

In December 2022, TGL received a $190.5m corporate income tax assessment and payment demand from the GRA relating to the disallowance of loan interest for the financial years 2010 to 2020. The Group has previously disclosed assessments by the GRA relating to the same issue; this revised assessment supersedes all previous claims. The Group considers the assessment to breach TGL's rights under its Petroleum Agreements. In February 2023, TGL filed a Request for Arbitration to the ICC, disputing the assessment with the suspension of TGL's obligation to pay any amount in relation to the assessment until the dispute is formally resolved. The parties have agreed a procedural timetable for the arbitration under which the first Tribunal hearing will be held in July 2025.

In December 2022, TGL received a $196.5m corporate income tax assessment and payment demand from the GRA relating to proceeds received by Tullow during the financial years 2016 to 2019 under Tullow's corporate Business Interruption Insurance policy. The Group considers the assessment to breach TGL's rights under its Petroleum Agreements. In February 2023, TGL filed a Request for Arbitration to the ICC, disputing the assessment with the suspension of TGL's obligation to pay any amount in relation to the assessment until the dispute is formally resolved. The parties have agreed a procedural timetable for the arbitration under which the first Tribunal hearing will be held in November 2025.

That's just Ghana though. TLW also have a dispute in Bangladesh.

Costs are all in there Anton.

80% of costs awarded, mainly due to the fact TLW's costs exceeded those of the GRA by 50%. In total they will be paid just shy of £2m and just shy of US$300k if I'm reading it correctly? I'm assuming that's just legal costs. Are you referring to some other costs?

It doesn't seem to make any sense at all but it is what it is for a reason.

Maybe the market valued Ingenuity at a lot more than MM and his chums bought it for so, now that it is no longer included in the valuation of RemainCo, then its market cap is reduced accordingly?

What else can explain it?

I find it impossible to believe anyone would be categorical about something over which they have absolutely no control, Anton, but I agree about the handling of the uncertainty not being as good as it possibly could.

Let's hope they have all their ducks in a row for the award, whichever way it turns out. GENL had an award go against them three weeks ago and it's been radio silence from them ever since. It's bordering on criminal that, after an arbitration Tribunal that has lasted years, they hadn't found the time to plan for that outcome. Hopefully TLW have more sense.