RE: Conservative.....28 Sep 2024 14:30
None of us really know how this is going to play out. There are optimists and pessimists on this board, each is entitled to their own view. I'm in the latter category in the short term but the former thereafter. My take is similar to that of Jedclampit. I think MM is being bought off with Ingenuity.
Whatever the outcome, it's clear that MM wants to keep control of something. It's in his nature. Maybe he sees Ingenuity as his new baby? For that he must hold 51% and not be overly-burdoned with debt, a consistent line in the sand for him, and the reason he rejected Apollo.
For securing Ingenuity he now seems willing (or is being 'encouraged') to let go of Nutrition and Beauty. Both can stand on their own two feet, or could stay together as a slimmed-down THG, without the 'shackles' of Ingenuity (and some would say MM himself) to hold them back. In either case both should become successful, highly profitable companies in their own right. That's the bit I'm optimistic about over the longer term. It's how we get there that concerns me.
MM will want Ingenuity for the right price, and his 'right' may well differ significantly from what some of us here think. Is this the price we PIs will be asked to pay to get MM to relinquish control of the THG group? And is it a price worth paying? Whatever that price may be, it's not going to please everyone. It never does.
Nutrition and Beauty have propped up Ingenuity for years, to the extent that it is nearing critical mass. So why now? That is the question I keep asking myself, and the main reason for my pessimism in the short term. It just seems a bit premature. Would it not be better to hold on to Ingenuity for a few more years until it comes good? After all, isn't that what they have been telling us will happen for the last couple of years, while we've watched it suck the lifeblood out of the other Divisions? Don't just do something, stand there, as Ronald Regan once famously said. Maybe that would be a better strategy than what is being proposed now?
Don't get me wrong, something does need to be done. Some shareholders are becoming restless and want change, but is this the best way to go about it? Yes, maybe we can all roll over into the new 'Ingenuity PLC' and preserve our positions - maybe. However, it's often the case that new money gets a better deal than the old, how much better being determined by the strength of the company at the time. Well Ingenuity will be in a much better bargaining position as a profitable Division in a few years time than it is as an unprofitable one now, so why the rush to separate it out? To me it just doesn't stack up.
I'm probably wrong on this, and of course it might work out well for everyone in the end. The announcement looked rather half-baked on the webcast so anything, or nothing, could be possible. With a bit of luck Apollo or some other PE outfit will come and take the lot, and we won't need to worry about it any more. Only time will tell what comes