Member Info for RBMInvest

Haven’t seen the board all day, so don’t know what someone said in order to have it removed. Why not remove the comment, rather than the whole thread?
Also, apologies for the strange question marks throughout! Copied it onto my phone, no idea why that happened….

I’ve been informed that Ryder Scott are in the process of finalising a new Resources Report for COPL, with a wider scope than the last one. Who do you think will have requested that?
The 2 potential lenders, prior to signing off an increased RBL?
Independent verification for a potential JV partner, given they’re now looking at additional COPL assets?
Or maybe AM was just bored…..
Interesting.
DYOR

2 if 2??So let's consider by example how close we'll be to breakeven by mid March. If 1500 bopd or thereabouts is being produced at BFSU on an 85/split that's 1275 bopd net to COPL. And if 350 bopd is being produced at CC we have 1625 bopd in total. Now let's say WTI is at $77/ brrl.??In this example then we have 1625 x 365 = 593125 bopy and 593125 boo x $77 to give us $45.6m annual revenue.??Royalties and production tax works to about 30% given most of the production is on private leases and under special conditions. So $45.6m - 30% gives us $31.9m annual netback at this stage.??Debt payments are approximately $16m/annum and G&A etc a further $10m. So $31.9m - $26.0m giving us $5.9m annual netback after debt and G&A etc.??Finally production costs at BFSU should be minimal given the gas is already paid for. So 465375 x $4 to give us $1.86m and that should cover it. ??Costs at CC will be slightly higher as shipping is by tanker lorries. But 127750 x $9 should suffice from which adds a further $1.15m. We then have virtually $3m/annum as a total production cost leaving us $2.9m annual netback before notional Federal tax . Federal tax is 22% which although unlikely to be paid should be accounted for to leave us with $2.26m final netback/net profit/earnings.??In conclusion I believe it's correct to say that COPL will more than likely be producing positive cashflow when it's producing from both the BFSU and the recompletion wells at CC even if they're in an early unstimulated state..??In both cases it's wrong to say COPL isn't a going concern at the moment. It's very unlikely to be classified as such given its ability to raise cash and the fact that it's just at the turning point of producing sufficient boo in any event is my view ??If you consider the recompletions being fracked in short order at minimal cost I see no reason why COPL shouldn't be producing over $1m/month positive cashflow at that point which would be easily enough to cover its debts and support its ongoing Capex.??If I'm near right, and with conviction I believe I am, then it's little wonder AM isn't communicating with shareholders at the moment. He's sure to be in an NDA in the JV and given he thinks the new discovery presents such a rare opportunity he's unlikely to risk saying anything to anyone. ??At the same time I believe he knows he has several options when it comes to raising cash if he needs to. So I very much doubt he's losing any sleep at the moment unless it's through the excitement of developing the new discovery.??This post is not meant to be a ramp or to encourage anyone to buy. I just wanted to lay down some of the facts and share them whilst also suggesting how AM might be feeling.??AIMHO and GLA.

Just in case you missed it, worth a read…
1 of 2??This post is about COPL's cash position in the very short term as it continues to trade as a going concern. Yes it is able to pay its debts and therefore it is trading as a going concern. The post I've put together is fact based and supported by math where I've been able to.??Firstly on COPL's shirt term cashflow. As of the date of the Prospectus COPL calculated that if it did need to raise finance at it it would not be until the end of March. This is stated very clearly in the document. So no not at the beginning of March as propositioned by some. They're simply being mischievous. The long-stop is the end of March.??There are several options available to COPL to raise cash.As we know we have the RBL and the JV which are in the latter stages of agreement. We've been told that term sheets from at least two banks were scheduled to be received by COPL in December. And on the JV were told terms are being addressed. These two options are obviously the preferred ones and perhaps the RBL won't be necessary if the COPL's needs are satisfied in the JV.??Then we have the accordion facility of $20m within the existing loan agreement, subject to terms if for any reason it's needed.AM has said he would prefer not to use this option as it locks COPL into the current contract for a longer term.??Next we have gas pipework under COPL's ownership. It was first highlighted in an early Analysts report. It's said to be worth around $10m with cash becoming available on a sale and lease-back basis. I believe it was installed by Atomic at a cost of $9m in 2019. So perhaps 10m is about right. ??Then we have the cornerstone BH who undoubtedly would be supportive. Followed by other BH's if needed and last on my list of options we have a placing.??So now let's look at how much finance COPL needs. We're told in the Prospectus it's just over $15m spread over the year starting from the Prospectus date. That is if circumstances don't change and as I say not all at once.??But circumstances are changing.We can see that. COPL is working to recomplete three of the many existing wells at CC and is more than likely producing from two now. Unstimulated, these three wells appear to be collectively capable of producing 350 bopd unstimulated. That is if the results of the first one is anything to go by and possibly 4x that so 1450 bopd when stimulated

Where’s that thread gone, has it been removed?

That’s the important paragraph.

Just for clarity, I was referring to the fish/scampi poster.
Sorry to hear about anyone suffering due to the current situation.
A long way to go yet…

What is wrong with this guy?
Truly bizarre behaviour.
Quite pitiful, painful to watch….

Penny dropping?
Sentiment changing?
Possibly.

Great to hear that many prolific posters have a simple exit strategy. Hit c.16p and they’re gone.
I’m sure we’ll all be very pleased for you…and for the peace and quiet it will bring. My target is much higher than 16p, but it’s now a level I am thoroughly looking forward to!

Hard to justify any negativity around this morning’s RNA, yet some still try to spin it that way. There’s a surprise! If anything, it’s actually positive.
Don’t get me wrong, it’s very frustrating that it wasn’t the message we wanted, but it’s not negative.

Glad you’ve come to a decision. Could I suggest that your best course of action for an early exit is now to stop posting negatively and running the company down.

Sure I wasn’t the only one that hoped this was it! Ahh well, not the one we were hoping for, but no real news here. Certainly nothing negative, just frustrating.
GLA.

Ritchie, an early contender for ‘brain-dead comment of the day’. Well done.

Nope. I’ve had quite a few replies previously, but nothing in the last week. Makes me think something is imminent and he’s having to maintain silence until finalised. Pure gut feel.

Laughable, isn’t it? ‘The countdown crew’ were made to look like clueless fools earlier today, why persist with it?

Dry yer eyes and stop your infantile scaremongering.
Nobody’s going bust.

I’d add more, but I’ve hit my ceiling. I always run just one ‘punt’ stock outwith my SIPP and try and be firm on the amount. Did reasonably well with Aston Martin and NCYT previously, but willing to go longer term with this and see where it takes me. Always had a strong interest in the black gold market, so enjoying seeing how AM works this one.
Huge asset, huge opportunity- but also a huge task.

Good post Illusion, clearly thought out. The key thing when looking at AM’s performance is to realise that he’s still trying to hit a moving target. He’s accumulated well and put all shareholders in with a good chance of a very good return. He isn’t perfect, not by a long shot, but then who is?
As for integrity, I’ve seen this questioned in AM, hypocritically, by some who display absolutely none themselves.
As for the abuse and threats that he and his team are now receiving, it’s just a poor reflection of where UK society is at present. There’s an element amongst us who display an air of entitlement, who feel they deserve anything they want and appear willing to do or say anything to get it. Not good.
Anyway, keen to see how this pans out, I have a feeling we’ll find out pretty soon. I remain extremely positive, although I’d far rather have recovered from 20p than 7p….

Whoever brings it up, however they do it, COPL are sitting on one helluva verified asset, that’s beyond doubt.
For balance, finding it’s the relatively easy bit though….