Member Info for raharh

CF said he is ideally targeting London (lab in Whitechapel) and more looking at the big corporates (JP etc...) as a way of getting the capital back working. He is setting up the network of GPs etc.. to take the blood etc... but he wont be interested in 'chains' i think.

But not to sound like a stuck record, this is not that big - £10m to £30m in his pipeline. Challenge studies £80m and Immutex £150m to £250m at 50% - those are the real earners. Not to mention annualised £10m savings in 2020 bringing back to profit.

If anything testing is just PR and good OO brand awareness - I am not saying that £20m in testing isnt great business, it just seems the BB disproportionately focusses on this IMO.

raharh 9th July

CF in his last two presentations indicate £10m to £30m. The presentation is in the company website.

3000 tests per day with a maximum of 1million per annum.

Pipeline for challenge studies us more attractive IMO

Consortium confidence around June is growing and they are definitely being more vocal now. Only 15 working days left !

I agree with you on the understanding - and I am one (new to this) - Merchant's summary earlier helped me greatly - but i would have thought the journo's writing it would have interpreted this, they just seemed to catch a negative headline AM and a positive one PM.

Just spotted the second news item by Sharecast today basically on the same RNS

10:45 Focusing on the £8.73m hit with a brief mention of the other 'stuff'
14:16 Focusing on the new agreements and initial order received - a longer article - along with a much briefer mention of the £8.73m but being offset somewhat by £1.02m - so indicating less in reality

Same reporting, different tilt, either re-read / digested or I have no idea.

At least on this board we are different individuals with differing views.

Looks like the SP is fighting it's way back to previous close, lets hope it does and kicks on tomorrow.

PL75 - i am not sure everyone gets your sense of humour but it does make me laugh.

On a serious note though, Al said that there were three things on train:
1. Adeptrix BAMS
2. Cytiva LFD
3. Pharma partner for treatment

He always said that he expected Adeptrix news first and today we have had it. For me that provides two strong signals in that firstly the Affimers do their job and that has been validated and secondly we now await Cytiva news. Then it is regulatory processes etc... so I do think this is coming together in the timescales - we can all debate whether it should be 3 weeks or 4 weeks - but we are talking weeks.

I think we should all probably leave the BB until mid July and reconvene, that is after all only 4 weeks away!

My only conclusion is that AIM is nuts, been investing since beginning of March, so a real newbie, but this market can have crazy reactions!

The RNS is great:

First confirmed order
15 other countries
Three more strands to the Mologic partnership and now in the Antigen test side - will be huge for coming years, esp. in Africa
£8m hit - lets be honest - this is not a small decision, do we really think they would do it if the opportunity was not significantly better than this.

Not to mention Design Freeze in June with guaranteed Govt Order and expanded manufacturing.

I do have one question to pose to the board.

There could have been two directions: 1. Take the £8m hit or 2. Placing to support everything they have running (like Avacta have) and expand - do the board think this takes a placing off the table and is shrewd in that CEO sees the Covid opportunity as just that opportunistic before resuming BAU in a year or so?

Rudey - could not agree more. IMO this is worth holding OO for alone. CF said next few months so expecting by September / October Immutex will hopefully be resolved with a dividend of 15 - 30p. Just need to sit tight on this one, whilst Covid has provided additional revenue streams it is nothing to do with Immutex and so 'not a covid play' in my book, that just adds value. The challenge studies are a nice extra in the next twelve months. DYOR.

Now that is scary. We need the challenge study vaccines to accelerate the vaccine in any event and this really does re-inforce that.

Saw this url posted on another board but pretty scary, Iran second wave, look at the 7 day moving average.

https://tinyurl.com/ycqnu6q5

Just in case everyone think this virus is done, we need quicker tests to know if you have it and if you have had it. Odx will be gold standard 'have you had it test' at POC. Stay safe.

Woodstock - agree completely - it has been a bit of a bloodbath today and even good stocks with good fundamentals have taken a beating. Early morning everyone chases the oil stocks and main board. Still here, not about not been out in case of an RNS tomorrow - I have said before, I think next week would be more likely (but would like to be proven wrong!). After the mammoth rises and dips of other stocks it feels like we are at fair value for what we have.

When design freeze lands and we move to manufacture we will have more.

ODX seems to be the sensible share of the covid revolution at the moment and I am happy with that.

Generally any pharma stocks have taken a beating today with Oil and Gas / main market ticking up. So once again, if you stand back.

1. CF originally thought a sale price of £100m was right - that should be c. 16p per share - he no longer thinks that is the case (watch the previous interviews).
2. This excludes Immutex, which could Nasdaq listed / sold - even a sale of £150m for a Universal Flu vaccine (far too low) will net £70m to shareholders - c.11p dividend. Expectation is that this will be done in Months (between Sept and Nov at latest).
3. Covid challenge studies will bring in between £40m and £80m that was not in the original evaluation (6 - 12 vaccine trials)

The antibody test is good publicity but low relative value at £10m to £30m as is renting out the lab.

The placing simply enabled Hvivo to fund the challenge studies and not have to give some of the revenue away and also be independent.

When you look at all this it becomes quite clear to me that even if you bought at the high of 16p, with Immutex at a minimum price achieving 11p dividend and a sale at a minimum price of 16p per share then that is 27p return on 16p which could be in benefit in the next three to four months.

Everyone can chase oil etc... but IMO if you have these shares it is just time to let CF work his magic, yes I would like to see an RNS with contracts to push the SP higher and yes I would like Immutex selling for £450m (35p dividend) and an SP on OO of 40p but ultimately this is the extreme upside - a range of 27p to 75p to look at IMO.

For me the base case is that I can get c.27p on an average of about 13p for myself at a base case and rather than running around aim looking for the next potential rainbow I will be holding as I have confidence in CF to deliver. DYOR as always, but watch the presentations and research the company and don't be annoyed if everyone sells off at the placing and makes 10%, that is there call.

trader - the antibody test is minuscule and distraction - it is £10m - 30m of a £260m pipeline - it is just a small part of the business. Challenge studies have a £80m alone and I hope you dont believe we dont need a Vaccine?

None of this pipeline includes Immutex.

ODX though shows stability - the Sky interview saw how it will behave on real news and then it retraced and has landed slightly above the 55 - 60 range it was moving in.

Looking at today then the wild swings others are experiencing are not being experienced here at the moment. A predictable slight retrace as news is awaited. If we can hold between 60 and 70 it shows a more stable platform for me.

Design Freeze I still think will be next week so considering a lot of people have been waiting since April (and a lot before this) its just another week or so ..... rather have a 2% retrace and a better uplift than 10% down / 10% up which does not help with the nerves!

I usually never get involved in these predictions but what the hell!

90p on Design Freeze in June - might touch £1 and retrace.. Once we up and running with manufacturing though ......

Cattleman - I agree - daily you see the same boards being flooded Avacta, Odx, GGP and Novacyt and this remains quiet but this to me has the most potential.

What are peoples thoughts on the challenge studies - it builds a great relationship with Pharma's if OO do a good job to have a discussion about Immutex ...... next few months are going to be good I think.

From a manufacturing perspective in the UK I think that when (and I do think it is a when) it is operational then Avacta should work with the manufacturer for the UK test (Cytiva) to achieve integration in to NHSx - that would be a USP. It looks like the ODC RTC guys are doing this for the antibody POC test and they are not mutually exclusive. If this was integrated then anyone taking the test could be registered and the NHS automatically informed of people who have had (ODX) and have (Avacta) the virus.

That could be an excellent USP for the UK market for Avacta in an approach to the government (and for people holding both ODX and Avacta which I declare I am).

Thoughts?

Given there was a press release last week (which I think meant there had to be the RNS) then I think it is more likely to see a design freeze w/c 15/06 for a few reasons.

1. Why do a press release citing June and a week later design freeze, you would not have bothered with a 'holding' press release.
2. The NHSx app has to be ready, the fact that these tests will be integrated to the NHSx app tells me all I need to know about the support for it, but the technology needs to dovetail.
3. July onwards will be a dangerous time as the government has to start opening other areas of the economy (e.g. pubs / holiday resorts) as people may be 'staycationing' over July and August, so they will need something in place. Mid June helps them push a rollout better than end of June.

Hopefully nothing political in the above.

We may get an RNS on Mologic which is just another string to the bow.

We saw how the SP reacted to the Sky Interview, it has retraced but not all the way so for me there at most 3 weeks left to get the news so I personally am holding at the moment, but obviously everyone else has to decide what they wish to do.

GLA and remember if you are posting, you are hopefully invested so we all want the same outcome!

I use EQI and it is easy - not a lot of tools but just for pure trading.