Member Info for raharh

That is the main point for MB - it is an MTA.

Looks like the real news flow is starting now. Had my month off(ish) after the design freeze and the board descended into facebook for traders but seems to have calmed down now (almost - who is this Sam_Pullcox ?!?) Took my placing shares and just sat on them with my initial investment CK is clear - news flow July / August / September - so if you dont want to hold until then at least you should probably be out but your call - everyone is different.

India news was welcome, everything is lined up now with massive capacity and 5 tests in the pipeline. Saw an earlier post asking if the govt are supplying free tests wont Omega have to - really - do people really write this stuff - that just means Govt will be paying suppliers.

SNG had their day yesterday and good luck to them, I can see our ride starting soon.

Been entertaining reading the board and not being wound up to post but time to break cover as I miss you guys, especially Ethio with his happy go lucky one minute / mr angry the next :-)

GLA especially the LTHs - we will do well here IMO.

Dufry - ignoring any ramping and de-ramping - with the actual value of the asset in the ground that has been identified it will make no sense for the BoD to sell at the current SP - why would they - that value is in the bank and if they did not sell and there was a retrace then they will easily build it back by moving in to production. The offer would have to be above the current SP - and therefore everyone should be happy from here even if they only bought on the re-listing as there will be a profit.

I dont think it is worth debating the multiple - it will all be a moot point in time - the key is - if you believe there will be a sale (and everything indicates there will be with the UBS involvement and open statement with interests) then there is a profit from the current SP.

BoD have a total vested interest to maximise here and stand to benefit more than any of us on these boards so I am comfortable now letting this play out.

GFD - thank you .

We wait with baited breath - I assume if the Flanks license lands an pushes the SP higher it can only help support the BoD in the actual sell price. Why would you sell the company at 30p per share if the share price was sat there already!

I just wanted to thank all the 'real' posters on the board that post the facts about the company and allow you to research, rowka you really do provide information overload! I was reading up during suspension and jumped in after it came back on (although day 2 unfortunately!) I am a new shareholder (average 15p) and I know a lot of you guys are already standing on huge gains but the fact you are still here does help with the confidence a little. New to investing having only been active since April (lockdown boredom) and a small pot (£5000) to play with as wanted to learn the ropes. I have been really outplayed on some Covid shares - too much sentiment in those at the moment that good news can mean bad news and no news can mean SP increases - all a bit strange. But it has been a baptism of fire as I turned by £5000 into £4600 :-) I actually feel lucky that this is all the damage i had. For every 'ramper' there are multiple 'de-rampers' and as soon as any stock gets traction everyone comes out of the woodwork - look at SNG today (which I stayed away from - I do learn!)

EUA is definitely the real deal IMO but sale valuations based on the resources are a bit alien to me as I have been involved directly before in a corporate sale of £1bn+ of a company a few years ago that I work for we went through a structured 12 week process from declaration, all confidential of course as not listed. The process ended after 6 weeks post three weeks of DD and investor presentations before some more questions from the suitors. One of the potential buyers put an offer on the table our existing owners were happy with and the deal was done. The offer however, was always equated to a multiplier of EBITDA - something that you cannot do here.

TBH - I cannot get my head around the valuations based on resources and how long they will mine for which are so wide so I have based my risk on 50% of the lower end of the ACF report (i.e. double my investment) and this will allow me to take my money out and have an investment pot to learn and play with over time. The fact the company is in a formal process with UBS on board tells me it should happen - UBS dont do this for fun.

I do have one question though:

I would not think the process would be any different for a listed company and so with a formal process from 1st July being driven by UBS (we used Goldman - but same MO) then at the outside it may look like end of September.

Does that sound sensible or are there different rules when it is a listed company - i.e. set timelines?

Good luck to all involved!

I have to say the last two days have resembled facebook arguments that are usually reserved for teenage children at school. We used to have debate and conversation and that has all ended on Design Freeze as the great hope did not get us to £1. If you listen to CK and the presentation to investers there will be growth and newsflow July / Aug / Sept - thats 90 days.

If people want to sell, then sell. If people want to buy then buy - but I note today that a lot of the considered posters are absent and I dont blame them. For those that are posting and combating all the new names, I dont know why we are providing the air time.

This is the last time I make the points I think are salient:

1. Design Freeze means that we have a product and are going through final stages with guaranteed order of 10m from UK on RTC - there is the ability to scale up and deliver more if needed and we need clarification on non-UK based sales.
2. Mologic has gone from 1 product to 4 this month and is moving through approvals concentrating on international sales esp. in Africa and we have shipped the first 900k of tests to Senegal for validation - Odx have reserved 80% of the capacity for Mologic at the moment so they obviously see the revenue and margin there.
3. Chinese intolerance business is growing at an alarming rate (positively) - not a bad market to open up.
4. The BoD have taken the view to (1) exceptionalise 7m as Covid is a much better prospect and (2) raise 11m to expand the business - if you dont believe that is the right strategy to take advantage of the situation then you should bail - they have more shares than anyone on this board I would imagine.

Going to leave the board to naysayers now and some of the lth's may wish to do the same, the posts here dont really impact the SP IMO and just allow the normal keyboard warriors to gloat, laugh, opinionate and basically use anonymity to get a kick. People should invest in companies they research and not base it on these boards, the boards should be here for polite, courteous debate - something this board was achieving in May but is now descending into insults etc...

Speak to you all at the end of July and Good Luck, as they say, DYOR but I think the Omega prospects are good and I remain invested.

Thanks Ton1c and MB - just watched it - got it now so even better.

I do hope the board can return to civil debate and we can lose the abusers now, we can continue to look forward and having listened to the presentation there seems to be continuous news flow through to September are least laid out now with the various updates on trading, CE mark etc...

MB - even more reason to hold. I have just re-read and have missed the doubling of capacity to 100million - can you point me at the right announcement to digest. This is even better than what I had worked through in my mind as I was based at 50million.

People are hung up that RTC is the main stream, it isnt, it is Mologic for me.

Comfortable to sit and see where July takes us.

Chris

I agree - I have taken some more today also. I do not think the interview was brilliant and could have been used a better platform, I am fine saying this and still be a supporter of the company. The interview seems to have consumed the day and this BB has been unbelievable today - no respect or courtesy at all from many.

ODX have capacity to deliver 50million tests per annum (currently)
5 revenue streams from RTC and 4 x Mologic - Mologic only had one previously
Business in China is growing
The write down of £7m tells you that the company see the profit in the tests for Covid in the next 12 - 24 months

If people dont believe in the company then sell and move on and let invested individuals debate the merits cordially.

Been quite an emotional day for most who were waiting for the massive climb on DF that has not materialized - i did expect a bounce, not to 90p but did not expect red - the fundamentals of the company are the same and may take a little longer but still believe this will grow beyond £1. I am not one to believe it is the next Novacyt (that got in at the start and generated revenues from the get go) so anything over £2 is a stretch at the moment but I am invested and will log off the board for the next day or too as it feels like a playground for people to hurl insults, not reasoned conversation over the company. There are some really good posts (PDMS, MB, Elon, Ethio) amongst others and sure a few people are a little bruised today but this is fundamentally a company I still believe in.

Block - I think it speaks volumes that Omega is balancing its production 80% Mologic and 20% RTC - I think that tells us all where the margin is.

So last time there was an interview we rocketed and got a speeding ticket. This time with excellent news we have an interview and it is in the red. I have no doubt CK knows his business and I am looking forward to the upcoming news but the two interviews haven't helped at all. Everytime he is in front of the camera he has to work on his agenda as it is free PR and Walbrook should be advising him:

1. Yes talk about how fantastic this is (show enthusiasm), talk about the consortium but promote Omega, 'We will be delivering 10m tests to the UK government in the first year and can scale to produce more if requested'
2. Know the facts - can they be sold internationally and independently of the government / RTC - they should know this now, it should be part of the MOU and agreement - so have an answer - 'It's a government initiative' is not an answer.
3. Use the interview to further the companies profile and agenda - talk about the Global need and mention the tie up with Mologic and the fact that currently Omega have capacity to delivery 50million tests per annum, it does not matter if CK did not get asked this - in the media you use the exposure to talk about what you want to talk about - there is always an in.

I am not de-ramping as you guys call it - I just think we really need to work on our PR. The potential is fantastic and the actual numbers will ensure the SP realises it, I assume that if nothing else, the placing and under-hype will mean we dont spike and fall.

I just want CK to get as excited as I am about the opportunity in public!

Anyone can go to the london stock exchange website and find every RNS there under the appropriate ticker.

DF achieved in June is the confidence LTHs needed here, they said they expected to do it and they did - if you invest in a company based on what they say will happen and it happens then there is no problem is there? You made your call on the fundamentals and confidence should now be high. Omega has capacity for 50m tests per year and 10m for RTC which was their commitment. They have confirmed they can (1) flex the other 40m to RTC test if Mologic are not ready / dont have the immediate demand and (2) expand if needed.

This is not now about whether they can get the test working, it is about how many do people want to buy, I would expect the next four weeks are going to be a positive journey, especially if we end up moving towards more lockdowns (see Leicester article last night)

For those not invested who feel the need to post, I appreciate your advice, but I will choose to trust my own.

Well that's me done then - either trust the people on the boards who think that the virus has gone or trust businesses who are spending 10s of thousands, probably 100s of thousands to expand and meet the demand they see in their commercial world.

This is not just confidence from what Omega are doing but what the consortium are doing as private enterprises.

There seems to be publicity push today and now the RTC being named as well as Omega so hopefully this is the start of a great journey in July and beyond. Possibly DF nailed and other bits being ironed out. More over the weekend and a reaction on Monday (esp with an RNS) would be great.

Just watched it on iPlayer - it is at 12:25.

Interview talks about the test and the 2500 volunteers they are now looking for to use the home kits, i believe that list closes today. John Bell says "gold standard" and report says public are being asked to try out tests that are more than 98% accurate.

They were specifically talking about the RTC and it is referenced - all good from what I could see.

MB - couldnt agree more. It is like anything - if they get demand then they can expand and it depends on the horizon but if the imminent demand more than makes the expansion commercially viable then you would do it.

Being from yorkshire and a natural pessimist I keep trying to look for the downside at the moment and couldnt even see it at 50p margin (which it wont be) so just need to ride the wave now.

DF in June will be key for confidence in the RTC and SP stability I think but we have a bigger problem, if we get DF by next Tuesday that will halve the number of posts daily as people cant ask when it will be anymore!

Ok not pasting the reply in again ... but I was trying to understand three things. If there is any risk / change in confidence on Design Freeze and if the DF announcement would be able to extend to include committed orders, if there was any newsflow on Mologic and whether the capacity Omega have could easily be flexed from the 20 / 80 split (RTC / Mologic) in case Mologic were not ready with their tests so more RTC tests could be issued. I therefore contacted Walbrook this morning and learnt the following.

1. With two days to go there is no change, i.e. it did not give me personally any red flags that DF will not happen before end of the month. I also got a confirmation that 200k tests per week was always the commitment to RTC (10m per annum)
2. On Mologic - they are working with other countries and will update as orders are achieved and Paul has added me to the distribution list. This just feels like waiting for further newsflow.
3. On flexibility - they can flex and do more for RTC if needed which is good in my opinion as if Mologic dont have orders they can fill the interim capacity with more RTC orders if required. I was interested in this as it could boost revenues if Mologic capacity wasnt needed short term.

All in all - I am now more confident - apart from getting a telling off!

So I guess that is my first LSE lesson - my thread has been removed and I have received a warning about sharing communications which I have seen many do! Shall not be doing that again and shall keep that to myself!

Interesting that people can post anything they like but when you ask for information and share you cannot do so and need to parade it is your own info - hey ho .....

PDMS. Hadn’t thought of the Gates Foundation bit. In summary I think we are both violently agreeing that this is massively undervalued. Keep up with the excellent insights and stay safe.

PDMS I always read your posts with interest as they are insightful and balanced. I also do try not to post ‘bollix’ as we see too much of that. I think £300m Mcap is available but I am just trying to come up with I think the base / pessimistic case would be and build from there as upside.

I am just trying to have some debate in these long days awaiting the next 7am hopeful update as I would just like to get the DF gone as it is becoming the only point people are waiting for.

I only penned 50p on the basis that my understanding is that mologic are looking to supply low cost tests to Africa which Odx will manufacture through the MTA. Margins should be much higher but if it makes sense at that level then there is a huge upside.

I am in and staying in, apologies if this wound you up!

forever - tbh that is what i am trying to work through in my mind. This has been at the 50 - 60 range since the announcement of the RTC - so there was a boost on announcement without confirmation of the test working. Since then we have had a few fundamental changes:

1. the test should / will work (DF imminent) and share of capacity confirmed
2. Mologic MTA for additional 3 products - additional revenue
3. Placing - this muddies the waters with some dilution

Unpicking this is perplexing, not a straightforward flow of news and events do you have a view on what the potential is here now? I am invested and think for the long term this is a good business but there have been so many additions / moving parts since the RTC announcement that have all cancelled each other out. The Sky News interview rocketted the SP before the speeding ticket - is this how it will behave after DF and confirmation of orders - and this excluded the 3 additional Mologic streams.

Brain overheating in the absence of the RNS we have been waiting for - never mind - only 3 trading days left.