Luke2 - thank you for that post - for those that are fairly new to mining shares (like me) it is a superb way of visualising, I am fairly new to HZM after being led to start looking at it a few weeks ago from another BB and have taken a modest position (40,000 shares) earlier in the week.
I read this as we are between steps 4 and 5 but nearly at 5 after yesterday (funding commissioned but not secured) - is that how you see it?
Read the posts today and the SP behaviour has been very odd. With the volume of trades you would have expected some chip in the graph but the near intention to maintain 4.2p throughout the day was eye opening. Especially if you don’t believe the MMs have real control over SPs at times. Still learning and MMs do amaze me but back to today!
Would it be fair to assume that a large buy order was been fulfilled at a fill level of 4.2p and as there was enough churn from people willing to sell in profit the MMs were able to hold the price until they had all the shares they needed and by the time it was released PIs amongst others weee perplexed so it limped over the line at close.
If that is right then it can only be good as the large buy order is in sticky hands having just bought.
Would a sell order have tracked more movement throughout the day as no buyers would have depressed the price to get people to buy.
Weird day but interested in thoughts as first time I have witnessed this strange behaviour.
Interesting board again. Definitely divisions forming between PIs who all invested due to what they saw as potential. It’s a shame differing expectations of timelines interpretations of what constitutes early / mid / late are causing friction.
I think the interview is Colin being Colin. He is a very approachable CEO and responsive to PI queries. The two sky interviews were challenging for different reasons. When Colin laid out his timescales in the previous interview I believe it was as he saw it and I believe he has integrity but we all know there are other parties that need to move at a pace also such as the government.
My takeaway from this interview is that everything he has communicated before will happen but he knows PIs are moaning in some areas and possible the India and PHE is taking longer than anticipated and so his message is ‘it’s still happening but it is taking a little longer’.
Hopefully over the next 6 weeks as news comes through this BB can come back together as investors who are happy at reaching their exit point or have decided to ride the Odx train for longer.
In the interim let’s not fight, I would rather have Sam pullc@x for entertainment than PIs arguing and getting personal when we are invested for the same reason, to make returns. GLA.
Not that it matters as really want the sale price but London Stock Exchange currently shows:
23.25 Trading Status : Closing Price Crossing
What does the Closing Price Crossing status mean? Is it in auction ? I see SPs changing about 17:15 every day, is this tidy up of trades so the final LSE price is published after that?
All I would say is that I am not a medical expert - but the premise of vaccines is that they trigger an immune response by activating Anitbodies to fight the infection the vaccine is for.
The only issue is that antibodies do not last forever in most cases and infections can mutate (hence an annual flu vaccine is delivered to people needing it).
But I have as much formal medical training as I do formal training on investing in shares ..... so happy to be corrected.
This BB will never change. It is like Design Freeze all over again - I want my RNS and I want it now.
I dont see any change and everyone debating whether early August is 7th August or 15th August doesnt really matter, any RNS will be issued when it is ready and the various milestones are met.
When someone says 'I expect' it is a view of that person who is involved and assessing the timescales.
CK cannot force India to sign a contract - he can negotiate and inform people as to what he thinks are reasonable but cannot force it. But we have the test ready and they need it.
CK cannot force the UK to sign the supply agreement with the RTC - the government has proven at best to be unpredictable, but we have the test and they need it.
CK independently is in control of CE mark of second Mologic test and RTC test post transfer of tech data from Abingdon.
If people were looking for an RNS today to sell today then I think they are missing the point of the next two months.
If at end of September nothing has changed and we are not £1+ then there will be a lot of people dissappointed on this BB (including me) but I would re-assess at that point whether this was a fundamental or something outside of the BoD's control and personally make a decision to hold or sell on that judgement but there is no decision to make yet.
A lot of the commentary is frustration as opposed to anything based on evidence that things are not going to happen, everyone wants it to happen yesterday (modern society I guess) but patience is the key, I dont think we should 'attack each other' or allow the de-rampers to pollute the board.
Solid share, solid plan, solid products, transformative plan - hold and chill IMO DYOR
Seems to be the case - but last two days went down and climbed in to the close to finish marginally up, would take that today and tomorrow without an RNS.
I wouldnt say doldrums - i would just say we have found our level until we get order confirmation.
Movement will be up on +ve RNS, down on -ve RNS - cant see it or down on no RNS in next week or so - cant see it but that is the main danger on the SP for me.
Seen a few questions about how the SP will react on an offer for the company.
Check out HSTG (Hastings Insurance) today - closed at 215p yesterday - RNS at 7am with confirmation of takeover offer at 250p per share. SP immediately re-rated to 252p on open.
We would like to see a bit of that (and preferably on 10th August as that was my guess!)
So highest Monday climb so far anywhere and 50,000 new infections. To get the India economy moving with a degree of safety they really do need to understand who has had it (and has therefore some immunity) to be able to get those people safely back to work.
Our mologic test is just the job .... we have a sales force out there .... test approved .... RNS needed :-)
Phillipines back in lockdown - it feels like it is only just beginning rather than abating. Local lockdowns in UK will only grow and god forbid we could have another national one by Autumn.
Everyone prefers blue days but if you look around we are holding up pretty well at the moment.
Tils -15%, AVCT -9%, Novacyt -4%, GDR -5% and SNG -6% so all Covid stocks down. So hard to call at the moment and RNS after RNS has not held us here, mainly as they are continually promises of the future orders (CE mark etc...) so I think before this goes it will need concrete orders, not even PHE approval will create a sustained higher gain having seen the behaviour.
The stars are aligning, if we are still here end of September having delivered the pipeline of news I am sure that most supporters will start to ask questions but at the moment, we have what we hold as Mourinho would say.
Only 39 working days left to end of September.
I am calling 6 RNSs in that time: PHE and Govt Contract on RTC, India Orders, Mologic Test 2 CE Mark, Africa Orders, External RTC sales, Mologic Test 3 CE Mark
Four of these are order based which I hope will drive the SP easily beyond Finncaps bottom valuation of £300m MCAP.
Each member has the rights to make and sell there own, firstly to the government to fulfill their obligation, but once their supply is met then they are able to sell the excess quantities.
I believe it is control through a Material Transfer Agreement (MTA) like Omega have with Mologic and is detailed in last weeks RNS as well as the ability to sell excess quantity (which is excellent with a test of this quality). So Omega will own the IPR and be able to compete with the other three outside of government orders - I hope we have an edge here being a pure manufacturer.
We dont know what the arrangement is with the government in terms of price and quantity (Omega signed up for 10million - but there may be an order for more), this contract has not been agreed / released yet.
This month tech transfer and manufacturing, sales from September onwards.
Also, MTA for second Mologic test was a few weeks ago (after we discovered the Mologic test had been CE marked 22nd July) and so we should expect the Omega CE mark of this before the CE mark of the RTC one from RTC which I believe Omega will now CE mark following the technical transfer last week.
My expectation is sales news (India / Africa), Second Mologic Test CE Mark, RTC CE Mark, RTC PHE Approval and Government Contract in August IMO.
Lockdowns starting to ramp up so we need to understand if individuals have some form of immunity / resistance and so the test is critical to the economy.
There is way too much news flow coming now so all going to plan as laid out by BoD - exciting few weeks I hope - an RNS every week would just be dandy!
PS... To everyone who isnt aware - Happy Yorkshire Day!!! (From a proud Yorkshireman)
Feels like Design Freeze all over again - the normal naysayers come out of the woodwork to try and destroy sentiment - and everyone wants to know why we are not 30% up.
Basically what have we learnt today:
1. Colin King has done what he said he would do in terms of expected news flow
2. We have the best POC Antibody test on the market
3. We will sell the excess - more margin
4. Colin cannot control the government in ordering and contracting (who can?!)
5. We got NO orders today - but we are further de-risked in getting those orders
6. Market dreadful - so SP just retracing but stable at 58 - 62 again by the looks of it - let's wait for orders
If you are invested and researched you should be sat there smiling on track and looking to make a decision in September as it all plays out. Unless you bought in the spike after the Sky Interview you are either level or in profit - if you dont believe in a company that is meeting its delivery estimates then sell and move on to something you do.
Even if this stretched to October due to delays with government etc... then I would be fine with it as fundamentally the company has enough in the portfolio to move forward.
Finncapp MCAP was £300m to £900m - £300m = £1.80 - that is my target (said it before) and I wont do anything until Sept / Oct
Each to their own but if you read the RNS and watch the interviews then the company is delivering what it has said - so ignore the noise.
Let's stop the infighting, anyone who bought on 68p today and got 'spiked' because they saw an RNS probably isnt researched - and if they are they probably should be hoping for £1+ anyway so whats the problem.
If we are in October and we are at 60p with no orders / even with orders I will be happy to come on and take the BB battering but when we are on track I just shake my head and go back to email at work!
The RNS is very positive - not a BOOM RNS but the key points are:
1. Production by September indicates PHE approval remains on track this month - delivering as promised
2. Firm indication that excess quantities can be sold privately
3. Will ensure, I would think we consolidate in the late 60s at least at least waiting for the orders and Mologic news
All in all on track - always thought we would sit and watch through to September and £1.80 was in sight (lower end of Finncap MCAP analysis) but dependent on orders it could be higher so overall a good day for ODX.
I cant help having a slight tinge of jealousy - just getting started with my portfolio as I have said before so much lower investment base of £5k so dont have that number of shares but we all gotta start somewhere!
Good luck - you win - I win!