Member Info for raharh

Personally I would like an intra or EOD release if it is available today as it will then hit the chats and news feeds over the weekend ready for Monday morning but it will come when it will come.

Nearly the weekend - have a good day all!

Do we want to set up a PI Telegram Group for Arbitration investors? Is that a plan? Saves spamming this board.

@190945 I am really interested in this space and only in two ARB cases at the moment. Would love to be able to get your notes - could you PM me them on here at all? Do not want to fill the board up with other shares but I have my eye on EML as well as PAT + another I am in.

Well at least the board has woken up 2 days before SOC deadline. Not sure why people are panicking like they are on the board. There is a court date set for 16th May - it is the 14th (and was the 13th yesterday).

If you bought in knowing that then two days ..... just chill, go to work, play golf or do whatever you like but we have all sat on our hands up until today and I expect RNS early next week. They could submit during the day on Friday and will RNS out of market hours so I am comfortable and will just wait for the RNS and hopefully we will all be smiling.

Chill everyone - the time is near!

Totally agree - including the 93k trade shown after hours which feels in the buy range....

Tik tok tik tok

Panman

First time an AC move has had the same reaction from me.

Not overly concerned about the raise at 1.20NOK - but the CLNs ...

$2m @ 20% over 18months is over $2.6m and then in addition an 11% discount on the previous 3 months VWAP to convert which will feel much higher if they convert just before ICC2 award. If ICC2 comes before the 3 months then I would be converting on the day of the 3 month expiry if the SP climbed on award to gain the best price.

I truly do not understand that - they could have got an institutional and retail placing with a small discount and no interest.

Either collect the $10m and get this repaid or get an ICC2 result in the next few weeks otherwise I am with you on the CLNs.

Still going to hold, just disappointed in this move, and it will probably deter me from adding at the moment.

I think the only near time risks are.

1. A SoC is delayed. People may move on if it is delayed. I don’t think this will happen. Dictated dates.

2. The SoC is extremely low (less than $500m). Extremely unlikely, if anything should be north of $1bn or higher.

3. Radio silence and no RNS by 16th May. The conspiracy’s theorists will spring to life.

I don’t think any of the above will happen. But let’s at least be balanced on worst case. My expectation is an RNS between now and 16th with a SoC in excess of $1bn at least and that should be a c.40p SP.

How much above $1bn is anyone’s guess but not long to wait.

I think the price will steadily climb until RNS and the. Will react to SoC value.

Only 9 trading days left now.

People are definately buying in advance of SoC judging by price paid.

Cannot disagree with that - we have about four months left at most to get to the decision which all signs point to it being a positive outcome unless there is a settlement in advance.

Collection of the 10m would be a boost as well.

Currently hoping my timing is not out as want to add here but waiting on other news to be able to move more over. Just a patience game with ZEN now - all the news is known that is material with options to come - settle / collect / decision - which will come first?

When I look at other Arbitration cases this still feels under the radar and probably will remain so until the SOC is issued. Less than 20 days to go. Good luck all!

£48k buy at full ask today. Some one is confident of upside!

Two decisions in the summer. Congo will be the appetizer.

Unless Tunisia settles before then …..

Good luck all.

Good to see a quieter board.

I have to admit I missed a beat when I got the RNS alert! But good to see Norway volume today, all bides well now for a wonderful summer!

No new news - LOA in bullish mode - but AC did say updates in weeks ... possibly about other activities but lets see.

GLA

I make it 14 trading days to the end of March. Last operational update was that Block2A will be complete by the end of Q1 do anytime soon our future is secure and they can move towards production. Do like the MCAP and shares in issue - when it moves it will move fast with that level of shares in circulation.

Sit on hands time!

Plumbs - these are cases 2 and 3

ICC2 is the 2nd case that has just been heard for $130m and decision in Summer

ICSD is the 3rd case being heard in December ($500m) and decision in Q2 2026

ICC1 has already been won and $10m awarded in December so that is 'in collections' now

Anyone that expected a decision on the RNS is smoking something. There is a process to go through and end of Summer is reasonable for a considered judgement and time, if the Tunisians want to, come up with a settlement that both sides can live with.

Today's drop is only annoying by the fact that people thought that it would be quick and is not so possibly getting bored. I will just keep holding this until the Summer - nothing has changed except that a hearing took less than a week, is a repeat of ICC1 in terms of arguments and the court was not very happy with the Tunisians after ICC1 so I see a good likelihood of victory and worth holding IMO.

I like the new quiet board - we talk when there is news and when there isn't as none is expected we get to live our lives - long may it continue!

If you assume a $160m award with interest which is £125m plus the £8m already owed then let’s call it £130m in total. Current mcap is £40m we should be near 28p on that award plus whatever sentiment builds in for case 3.

Doesn’t matter if it is a special dividend or held, it should work out the same in terms of return.

It has taken four days to hear, and is literally a repeat of case 1 in reality so unless there was some strange new evidence then my confidence is high.

I hope for an RNS stating case has been heard and an indication from the court on the ruling timescale.

Just a waiting game. If they want to settle I trust AC to wrap up all three cases and would take a discount with good payment terms and a quick turn around.

Settlement after a case is heard of this magnitude is often the exact time it is settled.

Both parties will weigh up their chances of winning and losing and risk appetite.

If ICC2 has a worth of $130m plus interest (let’s say $170m in total) then even if ZEN felt they had a high percentage of winning it would be a brave person to turn down an offer above half way and risk losing it all.

So I think both parties will regroup post the case conclusion (which I hope is RNSd) and then it is up to Tunisia to see if they want to play chess or not. If they don’t put an offer on the table we go to the end of

If they do then you negotiate, you don’t just say no, you derail the decision and see if you can get a price you are comfortable with.

Block 2A RNS in next four weeks should bring the spotlight. £10m in bank and burning £3m per annum. Revenue from 2A will come on line.

Then there is DEWA.

Feels like the cap has a long way to go and with such a small number of shares in issue this could move quickly when its profile is raised.

I think the last presentation priced 2A at £1 per share and the behemoth at £15+.

So doubling from here feels safe enough from what I can see. Then the upside could be huge.

We all want the same outcome. Not much discovery left here now so patience and discussion unless some unexpected news comes.

When the results of the case come out I am sure there will be a lot of chatter.

Until then chill let’s all be friends 😀