Member Info for raharh

Chuggley I think in April there was obviously planning from the UK government (on medical advice) to gear up for Antibody testing and that this was going to take time to develop something that could easily be used by the public and so in some ways it was good planning to set up the RTC then and get moving, these tests take time to develop, especially for home use.

The main challenge has been that people see Covid stocks rising but the majority of those are either Antigen tests (lab based - Novacyt) or treatments (Sng). Avct have seemingly got the PR machine going - they dont actually have a test yet (not deramping - i have been in and out of there) and based on RTC Omega seems to have re-rated and sat here waiting for antibody. But nevertheless some have found it difficult sitting on a 50p+ average for most and no real movement, especially with the placing which has had to be absorbed with further news to get back to the 55 - 60 range.

I still think it will be insignificant next to the Mologic potential but that is further down the line. Within the next three months I think we will have home based testing for both and potentially one encompassing both antibody and antigen (although commercially you may choose not to do this unless others are).

The next month or two is the Covid time of Omega and we should be first on antibody, possibly not on antigen but it is a big old world - dont need to be the only supplier. I would prefer a thumping India order over RTC at the moment.

I had the same query and contacted Walbrook on 22nd July and got the response below.

So I am expecting and RNS when Omega have manufactured and are able to CE mark which I believe is a validation that the tech transfer is successful.

Happy to be corrected but that seems to be what is indicated below.

1. Mologic have now CE marked a second product which I believe comes under the MTA agreement – will Omega be posting an RNS to confirm as I believe this happened on the last occasion to keep the market informed.

You are correct, Mologic has CE marked their second product but this has nothing to do with Omega Diagnostics.

Omega Diagnostics has an agreement with Mologic in place, to use Mologic’s technology and transfer it to their own manufacturing site, to make and commercialise their own Omega Diagnostics branded POC lateral flow test. The technical transfer of this has commenced, with the next steps including making batches of the product at scale to check the manufacturing methods work. Omega will then look to CE Mark the product.

You never know Mac - as I said - we ran a twelve week process and there was a previous post a month ago I think where someone posted the average number of days FSPs had taken across a number of deals and they were all 9 - 13 weeks I believe.

The FSP has to draw to a conclusion at some point and the reason for running structured processes is to make sure that buyers have the same opportunity and it does not meander so hopefully the timing is a good sign and not just coincidence! I have plumped for 14th Sept with Ian on the basis of what I have previously said as it seems sensible to me but I only know what you guys know (and probably a bit less on Eurasia!)

There may well be. An offer could be announced anytime and a resolution added to the AGM to vote it through? There wont be a suspension I believe on offer will just re-rate to within 5% of the offer (happened that way before - e.g. Castleton) until it is passed, counter offered or voted down (unlikely).

AGM is a mandatory process and is trading as normal so whilst they are in a FSP they still do have to run the business and deliver AGMs, RNS, operations etc... so normal trading as far as I can see.

Newvestor – been watching from the sidelines but I am starting to wonder why you are invested (I take that you are on face value)?

You have posted 83 times since you joined on 14th August, all your posts are on ODX, all are essentially showing disappointment in the company. This is your first share as you say. I would slow down, you are obsessing too much. The newsflow expected if laid out and Merchant has articulated it very well. There is the Finncap valuation note to digest and all the previous RNS and presentations to view.

I assume you have done all of this prior to investing and not invested based on the word ‘Covid’ or this or any other BB.
The company has set out a strategy with key milestones to the end of September – expectations have been reset on some dates by CK (he doesn’t control the govt) but we have a home use antibody test at the final stage of MHRA approval for public use in the UK. It will be the only one available at that point that I am aware of. That is only 20% of the Covid opportunity.

The food intolerance and CD4 tests are progressing well (WHO approval) – orders wont be until next year, so if you don’t have that horizon then fair enough but some do, not everyone is invested for a week or a month.
As an example, I have always said I will review my position at the end of September and if the company is delivering (even if things are moving about timewise) or I am confident they are delivering then I will stay – if not I will move on – as anyone should.

The posting feels frenetic and like you are desperate for 100% today and every day at 7:01 you are on a downer and post this. Stay away from the board for a few days would be my advice, this is a strong company and the foundations built since April are excellent – yes it needs to deliver – so does every company – but compared to April where we were trading at similar levels we have had a placing and funding and now the milestones have been met in terms of the tests – in April we didn’t have an antibody test – now we have one working in the final stage of approval.

Chill out – I don’t ramp (or de-ramp) – I just look at a company, invest and engage in what is found out and try and have some fun whilst doing it – stress is a bigger killer than Covid I can assure you!

Not sure he is that bothered about owning 1% of the company, probably more interested in the return he can make at the current SP - and obviously a vote of confidence that he is still willing to buy more at this price. All positive.

Ian

Okay. That’s four in a row! I may not know how to value a mining company but I am a roll with RNS dates.

My next, and hopefully last, guess is 14th Sept and it will be the big one.

Mainly because the 12th is my birthday and DA will be writing the RNS that day as I have asked for it for my birthday.

Good luck all!!

Ian

I have no choice but to go for 25/08/2020 for the next RNS - following the herd for the flanks RNS

That's three in a row for me .... people will start talking ... with that luck I am off to buy a lottery ticket!

Ohmni - debate always welcome on all boards I hope otherwise they really serve no purpose IMO.

Throughout June and onwards the board got quite personal with attacks on individuals as well as some posts that seemed to mislead people - it wasnt a debate on research / findings - they were simple posts due to either impatience or attacks on the company / posters (with the exception of Sam_PullCox who was just plain funny)

Happy for any debate on this board, CK has reset some expectations recently putting newsflow back a few weeks, this has upset some holders but not everything is in the companies control. The more you look at Covid (not Omega) this is going to be around for months if not another two years. Chris Whitty saying over the weekend that a vaccine this year is optimistic and shouldnt be planned for, even if Trump now wants our vaccine out pre election.

So a few weeks doesnt bother me. Dont get me wrong if we dont have PHE / Govt Contract and Mologic sales by October / November it will be dissappointing but I dont see it stretching that far.

I take all posters on face value - look at Benton today - no reason to doubt the post and that is good news, everything is being geared up for production of RTC tests.

Please debate away, as long as we all do it respectfully and try to back it up with facts rather than frustration then I am all for it.

What are your views?

Good to see a smaller number of posts and a sensible posting stream from people. Benton - that sounds very positive indeed.

AGM this week, not sure it will reveal anything earth shattering (they never seem to) and we now have to accept that there are two things outside our control in the government contract where discussions are 'active' according to CK and PHE approval - both may come together but not in the control of ODX.

Orders are - would be good to get something from India but the main update I am hoping for from the AGM is an update on the tests shipped to Senegal - it was in the 9th June RNS and so would like to understand how that has gone and whether it provides confidence of further traction and a positive message for our India opportunity.

Whilst RNS could drop anytime - it isnt linked to AGM, that wont drive the issue of an RNS, they will just come when they come and I am not sure we will see anything this week unless we get the RTC one and the government wants some breaking news before schools return - but for that to happen the contract has to be sorted.

Feels like the spammers and de-rampers have got bored and gone elsewhere - good - hopefully the BB can return to sensible research, news and debate now - a very interesting five weeks ahead for investors.

Clearly this was never a boom RNS (as some people call them!), it simply cements and creates a firm foundation for the share price. I would rather have this news followed by and Mologic / RTC news to act as a firmer starting point. The revenues wont come until 2021 / 2022 so it was not going to rocket on this but having this or food intolerance news this week is great to underpin where we are.

If we werent in Covid times then this would have had a greater effect - then again - we would not be at 58p to start with so take it as one of the normal trading updates that is positive to the long term health of the company - not every positive RNS is worth 30%!

If this can hold a close above 60p I think it will have been a good week with no Covid news and then the BB can argue over the weekend awaiting 7am on Monday ....

Says it ok Gazza - obvious class.

MOT!!

Mind you would have preferred to not meet Liverpool at Anfield on the first fixture!!

Ian

That totally gets a recommend from me.

Now the quandary - two dates guessed and two correct - do I opt out and stick with my 100% record or go again

What the hell - 24/08/2020 - next major RNS - got to be the MT Flanks license just to set the sale up nicely!

A frustrated BB at the moment but the fundamentals are no different - the timelines have slipped and I believe that is why CK did the interview last week. If anyone expected an RNS last week after that then I am not sure what to say. IMO this week doubtful but possible. Next week I would imagine so.

On 21st July Mologic completed the MTA for the second test - this now needs building to the same standards so Omega and CE mark it - this was confirmed by Walbrook reply to query (see below) - therefore news expected on that (and sales manager in India is a clue)

You are correct, Mologic has CE marked their second product but this has nothing to do with Omega Diagnostics.

Omega Diagnostics has an agreement with Mologic in place, to use Mologic’s technology and transfer it to their own manufacturing site, to make and commercialise their own Omega Diagnostics branded POC lateral flow test. The technical transfer of this has commenced, with the next steps including making batches of the product at scale to check the manufacturing methods work. Omega will then look to CE Mark the product.

On 30th July Abingdon completed the MTA for the RTC test, production is ramping up for early september and the MHRA timelines work well for this - therefore assume CE Mark and MHRA approval this month so they dont manufacture 100s of 1000s of tests that arent to standard.

If you read that back than I hope to see Mologic 2nd test CE mark this week or next, that would give confidence in the RTC equivalent.

CK is not in control of the world (for those that think he can tell India to order and the UK Govt to sign a contract), he is control of scaling up and CE marking tests he has had the MTA completed for - that is the test and so far I am happy.

End of September was always a view on when we would know if we were going to deliver, if there is a desperate need for an RNS to calm PIs down it wont happen - that is not the reason for releasing them.

If people are genuinely unhappy with the company they do need to move on, even at a loss, if people dont think it is going to happen why would you hold if you truly believed that ?

Holding and switching off again, GLA in whatever you decide.

rowka - it was just a joke - your research has been fantastic, no other meaning, just my sense of humour

So we know IIs know more than us PIs (possibly except Rowka!) but I do think it is fantastic that a placing for £10m has been secured at the closing SP yesterday with no discount. I agree that it sends a message to buyers, it says we are not running out of cash, we dont need to sell unless the number is right and we now have no pressure - all the pressure is on the buyer in the sense that the longer this goes on, with more news, the higher the price so I am not sure it will elongate the process - it may accelerate it some way.

My other thought, is that in attracting IIs to the placing knowing that the company is in an FSP then they would have wanted some confidence of a return on 22.5p and therefore these prices are now cheap - the company will not sell anywhere near the bottom of the ACF research I would have thought now.

Finally - this may mean the Flanks RNS is imminent - to provide immediate comfort to the IIs who have bought in. It will show them a premium straight away (a reverse discount if you get what I mean) and give them comfort to hold for the sale.

All looks very good moving forward.

Calamari
PE to PE is slightly different in that the BoD remains in place (we did) and the selling PE house walks away. As the PE house generally owns more than 80% there is only one vote that matters. We had a situation where there was a PE house we wanted and there were some in the process we were ‘worried about’ having as our masters moving forward, but you need the competition. Our current PE house set a value before the process which if breached they committed to give us the decision as they wanted a good home for the business and we had (and still have) an excellent relationship with them (we did make them a lot of money). So we worked harder on our preferred and it is them that broke ranks and everyone was happy.

Sanboy - I was (and still am) one of the Exec Directors (i.e. direct in to CEO) and run one of the trading divisions. Obviously not going to divulge any details to identify me or the company, still on the board and I still work at the company in the same capacity, I am just sharing my experience of the sale that happened in the PE world - i dont see this as any different, at the end of the day it is a company sale to another investor, us PIs and the IIs just ride the wave and whilst shareholder approval is needed we would be irrelevant in that vote as we dont hold enough equity.

My role was obviously to present and answer questions on my trading division looking back four years and forward four years (as PE houses tend to work on a 2 - 2.5x return over a four year period - i.e. they will look to move us on for 2 - 2.5bn four years after ownership to another PE house).

mac - i agree in part with you. Having been involved in a four way sale of a company (to private equity - not public listed) that sold for just over £1bn we had a formal 12 week process that was run by the M&A bank. The fireside chats were happening long before that (3 months or so) lining up PE houses, so they came warm to the table.

The process basically ran as a two week entry process (we had 9 involved) with NDAs and access to data room before initial offers were put in. Anyone below 900m were rejected and we went down to 5. Then we had full day presentations from the BoD to the PE houses that were scheduled in the same week (5 days of my life I will never get back) - one dropped out and did not attend.

From week 5 onwards it was DD and loads of questions.

Closing offers were due by week 10, however one of the PE houses broke rank in week 8 and put a number on the table that the BoD and the current PE house were happy with and the process was abruptly ended much to the dismay of some of the other bidders - but the new PE house got in there with an offer that was above the target sale and sufficient enough to do the deal.

I have a twelve week window in my mind from 1st July but now we are in week 6 onwards, for me we are in the heat of the battle now if there are multiple bidders.

All I am saying is that if someone really wants it and does not want the bidding war an offer could land that sets them apart and basically shuts the process down - which is why it could happen at any time.

Luke2 - thank you for that post - for those that are fairly new to mining shares (like me) it is a superb way of visualising, I am fairly new to HZM after being led to start looking at it a few weeks ago from another BB and have taken a modest position (40,000 shares) earlier in the week.

I read this as we are between steps 4 and 5 but nearly at 5 after yesterday (funding commissioned but not secured) - is that how you see it?