Member Info for raharh

Ok - so basically the trading needs to operate at higher than 50p margin - lets say 1.50 to take your mid range. That gives Covid this year an additional 50m MCAP (2 x 25m tests at an additional £1 margin) this year and if there is a full year effect next year then this could be an increase of an additional 50m MCAP with 2 x 50m tests.

So do you think the re-rate based on this would be 80p - 90p this year?

50m additional MCAP re-rates the SP to 120m so about

Kevin

I dont disagree that the margin will be lower - but ODX made £900k in the last financial year. With a repeat performance (and no Covid income) they will make £1.7m this year as they have dropped the allergy testing as per the RNS and that will save them £900k pa.

So double the profit with no further streams opened up.

Then look at Covid - capacity is 50m tests per annum. Balanced in the RNS as 10m for RTC and 40m for Mologic (4 tests).

Being ultra conservative - lets assume 50p margin per test (RTC will be higher, Mologic is a lower cost and therefore margin product aimed at Africa) - that is £25m profit in one year, delays in starting lead to 6 months of profit at these levels.

So £1.7m on like for like basis + £12.5m this year from Covid is £14.2m profit from £900k last year .... what am I missing - this is due a re-rate on these numbers and they are low IMO DYOR

Happy for a healthy debate but do you think these numbers are misleading?

You probably need to read the RNS' that relate.

Design Freeze June (as well as Abbingdon PS)
Shares allocated early July

I think so.

Merchant - I agree - not sure everyone will do the test at the same time (!) but I think people will need to do the test a couple of times per year for confidence. 200k per week is 10million - i am sure if demand and margins were there they would scale up further as 50million feels like the 'initial government' order.

Then there's Mologic - all looks good.

We could end up with an RNS every week / other week through the summer keeping the SP moving north.

Let the derampers have their fun, the real fundamentals will drive the SP which is still holding into the weekend.

Three trading days left, RNS on DF imminent (and now needed for all four members of the RTC credibility)

Omega have stated their split of production to be 20% RTC 80% Mologic, ultimately they have capacity for 52million tests per annum. I doubt they will leave empty capacity if there is demand and I am assuming (but do not know) that the manufacturing equipment should be able to make either RTC or Mologic LFTs. Therefore if the Mologic LFTs is not ready to manufacture they will start with a higher volume of RTC tests.

If there is margin of 50p per test (conservative but we Mologic tests are targetting low income) then that is £25million margin per annum for at least the next two years excluding the food allergy business (£4m profit) and therefore these surely are transformational for a business that did £900k profit in the last year - I dont think we have seen anywhere near this re-rate yet and RTC orders seemed nailed as do Mologic with the MTA so would be shocked if the actual orders do not fall. Also explains why they would exceptionalise the 7m to concentrate on this - one year of supply alone is almost 4x the exceptional item.

Happy to be corrected on this - just doing some mental maths.

I think I understand this but happy to be validated / corrected.

Everyone is guaranteed a 5% allocation in shares to purchase, I am with Equiniti and can see these. The brokers are then setting the process up.

With Equiniti i need to tell them if i (1) dont want any (2) want the allocation (3) want the allocation + more.

I have to have the funds in my account on 30th June (dates will differ - this is Equiniti) and so I can judge by then what to do. I assume the full funds are taken at that point.

The applications close on the 7th July 11am according to the circular - I assume we will be then told how many we have got (and a potential pro-rata refund).

The shares are then allocated on the 13th July and can be traded post the AGM as long as the resolutions are past.

Does this make sense? Have I read this right (accepting other brokers may set different deadlines)?

Agreed Woodstock - look at GDR - touching £3 and 80p placing killed it off. Avacta £2 and 120p placing has curtailed it.

This is the right way round, if the placing happened after a DF spike then IIs would not be as forthcoming, they want in before the spike. The SP has held up remarkably well - if we can see 55 - 60 before weekend and DF on Monday we will hopefully be back on the post Sky interview journey. Remember we hit 94p before the speeding ticket and since then we have what is good news IMO

Mologic 3 further streams
Refocus of business $7m exceptional show BoD know where to put their efforts and frees up £900k per annum
Expansion in place
Placing means no more funding concerns

So we should only grow from here.

An RTC DF and a Mologic Orders update (off the back of Senegal) in the next week would be superb and just the start.

Are we now facing the fact that as the week builds we need constant positivity from all four about DF in June without actually getting it to kick up the SP to close on Friday and the RNS land Monday 7am after weekend PR confirms it. Then we should kick on from the best possible SP from where we are?

DF intraday today / tomorrow will kick on from 45 - 50p - would rather kick on from 60 - 65p.

Wolves does make a good point on the volume from RTC. At the time I did post that the Sky News Interview was not a good one as it was at best ambiguous and CK did not correct the 50million figure from Sky News as not been solely Omega. I have to assume that he is pairing the numbers down on RTC because Mologic is more profitable (?!?) - if not then why would you do that unless Mologic made it a condition.

200k per week to RTC when not all Mologic tests are ready to manufacturer?

After taking the £8m exceptional and ramping up production I have to believe that CK knows the best route to maximum profit and return for the company but the signals are somewhat confusing.

This is going to go one way or another in the next month, I am still a supporter (a wobbling one) and invested but if the DF has little impact on the SP then people will definitely start to re-assess their opinions - 5 days left now - so holding and seeing how it plays out.

Possibly the 80% leaning towards Mologic is because, whilst there may be a perceived slow down in UK, this does not seem to be the case in the African continent where Mologic is pushing out to. There also seems to be a huge issue growing in South America and these are all without second waves which may come with vengeance (esp in US with some of the state and administration attitude).

It is a big decision to cease a major part of the business (7m exceptional) and expand operations to concentrate on current opportunity - and placing taken by IIs so the pipeline must be there.

The main problem with Omega IMO is that everyone is seeing other areas moving at pace and Omega, for me, is not the most PR driven company and so the SP reflects this.

I trust the BoD have the companies (and their own) interests at the forefront as well as IIs who will make more noise than PIs and so I think we need to let the next few weeks play out.

The previous RNS's have not been met with great positivity on the board - apart from RTC we have three additional streams with Mologic, one of which is CE marked, and the amount of noise that DF is going to be in June (6 trading days) would be embarrassing for the consortium (not just omega) now so I do expect this. Even today it is being touted as being June.
Still looking for £1+ in the near term, then it is how long people think it will go. I dont think DF is priced in, nor the additional Mologic streams and therefore I think this has good legs even if it is not the rollercoaster of other companies in this sector (which i prefer!)

I havent really changed my mind from my inital reaction - this is what I thought on Friday and it still stands - hold long and strong - it is going to be a good few weeks IMO.

For those worried about the design freeze and whether they trust omega on the back of the placing now need to pause. This is not an omega project and is being led by Abbingdon, a private company who has scaled up and is head of the RTC with two other private companies. Omega are 1 of 4 and therefore irrespective of trust that every one may be nervous about it is not down to Omega to achieve design freeze and the press release earlier in the month that triggered the RNS with June in it was more bullish. Press release said 'will be June' RNS said 'expected to be June' or words to that effect.

The placing has no reflection on the design freeze, it has diluted holdings (maybe we move from 45p to 85p on Design Freeze and not 60p to 100p) But that should still see everyone moving forward and making returns.

At least the placing rumours are quashed (as it has happened!)

News flow:

Design Freeze
Scale up and Manufacturing
Government Orders (guaranteed customer and good payer!)
Mologic x 4 streams in flow
Other activities stopped netting 900k back in to the business annually

If you want your 5% additional holding then go for it - otherwise we await the news.

It is what it is, fundamentals have not changed with RTC, good to get this out of the way before the positives come IMO, patience is key - GLA DYOR

Uknrw

As we pushed to 94p on the sky news interview I would hope 70p is conservative in spite of placing. Still got a £1+ target in the next few weeks. As always with Odx. Patience is key.

All the Pharma covid placings have been oversubscribed - AVCT, GDR, ODX - they have to put it in at a price and then IIs will decide if they want in and more do than they have made available. Normal, no one wants a placing that is under subscribed - now that would be a car crash.

All Pharma's taking advantage of the upturn to secure there future - fully expect Synairgen to follow suit at some point, it secures the CEO's business and allows them to expand.

Minor blip - stay strong.

For those worried about the design freeze and whether they trust omega on this now need to pause. This is not an omega project and is being led by Abbingdon, a private company who has scaled up and is head of the RTC with two other private companies. Omega are 1 of 4 and therefore irrespective of trust that every one may be nervous about it is not down to Omega to achieve design freeze and the press release earlier in the month that triggered the RNS with June in it was more bullish. Press release said 'will be June' RNS said 'expected to be June' or words to that effect.

The placing has no reflection on the design freeze, it has diluted holdings (maybe we move from 45p to 85p on Design Freeze and not 60p to 100p) But that should still see everyone moving forward and making returns.

At least the placing rumours are quashed (as it has happened!)

News flow:

Design Freeze
Scale up and Manufacturing
Government Orders (guaranteed customer and good payer!)
Mologic x 4 streams in flow
Other activities stopped netting 900k back in to the business annually

It is what it is, fundamentals have not changed with RTC, good to get this out of the way before the positives come IMO, patience is key - GLA DYOR

Thank you for the response. Just trying to look at indicators as I continue to learn.

Still learning guys - so honest question.

When the Sells (1.9m) are outstripped by the Buys (2.8m) is this because MMs are holding stock or because of delayed trade (or both).

Generally should anything be read in to this position (in either direction).

Very odd - seems to be the only share that doesnt rise on rumour (which is close to becoming fact IMO if you see the consortium social media campaign) - I would just like it to hold at 60+ at close and establish that as a base as we have sideways tracked in the 50s for far too long.

Feels like the least exciting Covid play on AIM but potentially one of the most exciting with a backed government contract and Mologic tie up, time will tell.

Mr.B - we have an agreement with Mologic to deliver their POC Antigen Tests. In the RNS of 9th June.

It took you until 9:54 - but I do look forward to your daily entry.

BTW - I agree IMO this is back to £2 pretty quickly with some huge backers and potential - DYOR

CW25 - they have an arrangement with Mologic to deliver one - hopefully just a matter of time.