RE: ?5 May 2021 16:58
Hah ha hah come on now Danman bullet points, lol, your such an accountant, too clever for your own good, fleagate, still kills me to this day.
Ok share value, now i think i've nailed this but there does appear to be a massive amount of debate and many varying opinions but i think this is a fair summary of where we at.
My personal view is that below starkly demonstrates that BOO shares are priced completely wrong, given the growth track record & prospects and in particular my own insight not just to the trade but BH and the teams.
Consider these latest forecasts:
FY 02/2022: Revenues £2,194m, Adj PBT £185m, Adj diluted EPS 11.81p (PER of 26.8, at 316p per share)
FY 02/2023: Revenues £2,741m, Adj PBT £240m, Adj diluted EPS 15.31p (PER of 20.6, at 316p per share)
Also Broker consensus is currently 10.7p EPS for FY 02/2022. BOO normally comfortably beats forecasts, which are raised throughout the year. Newness not yet hitting down hence I’m working on the assumption 12p+ is more likely for the current year. At 326p per share, the PER would be 27 times - which is a bargain, for such a strongly growing business, with almost unlimited growth runway internationally, and with multiple brands not to mention make up.
And just to add I don't know what the short term share price will do - we've seen that it's extremely volatile & unpredictable, hence why I ignore it , but i know you lurrrrrrrv it, u never used to but i think your much more comfortable with less risk and D/T, so stick with it, you should at least get your Friday night takeaways paid for.
Anyway i digress, here's a quick summary of previous guidance, which we can use to measure performance today against:
Trading Update, 14 Jan 2021
4 months to 31 Dec 2020: 40% revenue growth
10 months to 31 Dec 2020: 42% revenue growth
Guidance for 12 months to 28 Feb 2021: 36-38% (raised from previous range of 28-32%), adj EBITDA margin c.10%
Medium-term guidance: 25% p.a. revenue growth, and adj EBITDA margin of 10%
Stockopedia shows broker consensus for FY 02/2021 of: 8.47p
And so today we see
Revenues: up 40% - ahead of guidance of 36-38%
Adj EBITDA margin of 10.0% in line with guidance
Adj EPS 8.67p is a beat against broker consensus of 8.47p (2.4% ahead)
Adj EPS of 8.67p is up 47% on last year
Strongest growth geographically was in USA, at +65%
New guidance for FY 02/2022: 25% revenue growth (of which 5% from newly-acquired brands) - note that guidance tends to be raised as years progress.
Current trading - trading in first few weeks of new financial year has been “encouraging”
Returns rate - benefit from a lower customer returns rate in FY 02/2021 is expected to “begin to unwind”
Carriage & freight costs - significantly elevated, expected to continue
I cud go on but i've nailed it, however if you really want to get hard then check this out Danman you'll love this, chart porn for you.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/BOOHOO-GROUP-PLC-16023307/financials/
How'd i d