Member Info for ragnarlothbrok

Total cost of rebranding from Fairfx to Equals - ouch!!

This is definitely the lowlight of my results season.

So revenue went up a bit, gross margin a tiny bit, admin expenses went up by over $1m and capitalised costs by another $350k. And what about Danateq? Can't see any impact here

I mistakenly invested my EUSP profits here thinking it could be a similar story but the lack of cost control and increase in headcount is truly eye opening. I can already hear the explanations: positioning for growth, strong pipeline. Maybe so, but to increase costs like that to support revenue growth which hasn't happened yet reflects poor management.

Net result: no profit, cash outflow and huge expectations for H2. After $2.9m revenue in the first half, $7m is required in the second half to hit expectations.

JAdam no probs. I've dropped into the ADVFN board on occasion and it seems to have got a bit personal over there.

Hey ShareNicely

Great post. I thought the same thing this morning when at 815 I saw this at 115. I am also overinvested but couldn't resist the opportunity to scalp a few on the dip.

The extremely low valuation multiples had already factored in a worst case scenario, so this morning’s drop seemed like a huge overreaction to me. But like you I had to think twice given my overexposure.

I’m ignoring all the noise and focusing on one key number: the FCF yield. If anyone can show me a debt free company which is showing a FCF yield in excess of 15% I want to know about it!!

I recall a dividend payout ratio of 40% of FCF, if they stick to that I can't see debt being 0 within two years, but either way in year 3 we should see a yield of between 5-10% at current SP and basket

Slide 27 of the annual results presentation gives some info on how quickly they could retire debt - 2 years.

https://www.panafricanresources.com/investors/company-presentations/

I think sometime between 2-3 years... allowing for dividends, some underperformance (it is South Africa after all) and some investment in growth

The other SA miners don't seem to have been impacted so I would say no. The selloff is no doubt related to the recent results given the rest of the sector has been rising and PoG too.

I was a little disappointed with today's results, with cost and capex higher than I was expecting. But for 2020 we have the following to look forward to:

- higher GOLD pries (so far). Average realised price for 2019 is 1266/oz. 2020 YTD price is 1466, 16% higher
- 13koz increased in production
- lower cash costs
- lower capex, with sustaining capex of 15-20m only
- aggressive debt retirement
- high level of dividend growth

2020 should be a very good year for cash flow!!

On the website as well

http://www.panafricanresources.com/wp-content/uploads/Pan-African-Results-Presentation-Final.pdf

Hey Gavster, there's a full set of financial statements you can see the cash flow there

https://senspdf.jse.co.za/documents/2019/jse/isse/pan/FYE2019.pdf

Likely to plenty of opportunities for DGOC in this market

https://www.naturalgasintel.com/articles/119388-outlook-dims-for-appalachian-eps-on-horrible-natural-gas-price-cycle

Hopefully they continue their trend of doubling the dividend intact for the next couple of years (on top of the Grasvally special)

Would really like to know what these growth projects are which is causing them to hoard their cash. With the state of the chrome market I cant imagine anything happening in that area in the near term.

News comes out, ST releases his update, price jumps as buyers get caught up in the hype, profit taking and stop losses kicks in, price falls again.

The EXACT same thing happened after 2018 results in September. I don't think we will retrace like we did then though, down to around 16p.

Meanwhile prices are chugging upwards of record highs in the background. ZAR has had a good run recently though.

ZAR basket has nearly DOUBLED in the last 18 months...

3.75c payable on October 4th

Premium listing and new auditor should ease some of those worries

Issuers with a Premium Listing are required to meet the UK’s super-equivalent rules which are higher than the EU minimum requirements. A Premium Listing means the company is expected to meet the UK’s highest standards of regulation and corporate governance – and as a consequence may enjoy a lower cost of capital through greater transparency and through building investor confidence.

Roaring back to life! And Pd been creeping back up, not far off its recent record close.

Not sure if this reflects the JSE listing compliance requirements or Cobus' lack of experience in shareholder communication. Probably both. PAF have always been this way. Typical of PAF communications, too many different measures and complicated. So may things are wrong with this statement. They are releasing results soon, why would they give a range for results? Do they not know them yet?

Edison gives 0.99p which is normalised HEPS. HEPS is 0.92p. If it's the latter than its probably a beat, the former and its a miss.

The only thing useful from this statement I can get is that given H1 HEPS was 0.39p, H2 is between 30% and 60% better than H1. Hopefully the same for cash flow.

I am glad that that the reporting currency has been changed to USD. The GBP thing was a real pain

Hey adv11.

I use IG, eventually they got it right with 15% WHT off both my ISA and normal portfolio holdings. They got the number wrong twice, looks like they got the currency wrong and then the WHT, and subsequently credited my account twice it took 3 weeks to make the payment but it got there in the end

Not quite sure what to make of the EPS number as it not something I really focus on. The lowest number is HEPS continuing 1.12c, which is 0.9p. This compares to Edison of 0.99p. Not really sure this even matters as cash flow will be key.

https://www.edisongroup.com/company/pan-african-resources/1220/

Nothing new there. I would say that SA bottomed out recently and perhaps a small recovery may be on the horizon. Haven't heard any bad news for some time. Rand at a one month high tells you a lot.

I think yesterday's drop was one of those algo/MM blips which clears out loose holders. Bouncing back today.