Member Info for ragnarlothbrok

Didn't think it would go that quick. PoG surging, ZAR tanking. If SA can keep the lights on should be a great year for PAF.

Market starting to price in a pretty healthy FCF yield (=divi) at this PoG.

Cinemark Q2 results out on Friday . Check out slide 9, showing the resilience of the US box office through recessions and times of technological change. Trade wars aren't going to stop Americans from going the the cinema

http://investors.cinemark.com/static-files/f4c3e9a6-8248-47ec-bdc2-c3264635316f

I thoroughly enjoyed that interview with Rusty. He is so matter of fact, down to earth and practical.

His justification about the buyback was brilliantly cheeky and direct: We borrow at 5.5% and pay a dividend at 11%. Why wouldn't we use debt to buy back our shares?

GOLD seesawed over the last couple of days after the US FOMC announcement (down) and then the new tariffs (up).

ZAR was absolutely punished in the last couple of weeks. After the weak South African GDP reading and the awful unemployment statistics from this week (29%) the ZAR was the first emerging market currency to be sold off.

But the end result is that the ZAR GOLD price is at a record high.

The PAF SP, as a result, had a very healthy dip below 11 and hopefully removed some weak holders but today buyers are rushing back in. I think we are looking good for 12p in the very short term.

My guess if 1.7c, which equates to $4.6m and is a 4% yield. I think that they will use Echo capex to suppress the yield for now, they will want to keep $20m in the bank and still be able to increase the dividend over time.

That gives 3.5 times EPS/NPAT coverage and around 50% of free cash flow. Maintaining this will give 2.6c next year.

drshaggy say that name 3 times and maybe he'll reappear like the Candyman. He's still ranting over on the advfn board

Safe as sofas

Cineworld, the world’s second biggest cinema company, rose 3p, or 1.2 per cent, to 255p, boosted by an upbeat note by analysts at Peel Hunt, who said that investors should have no worries about the stock because, with strong film releases such as the Lion King, its investment case intact and the majority of earnings in dollars, “we see the current share price as a buying opportunity”. They added that Regal Unlimited, Cineworld’s new subscription offer launched on Monday and priced lower than the rival AMC’s offering by 10 per cent, will spur attendance levels between blockbusters.

Shares being hoovered up left and right, can sell £50k above the bid. If it ain't Tosca then I'm very curious to see who

Can't recall a time over the last few years when Terry has been so optimistic in a quarterly report. Almost a challenge free report this time and he didn't complain about the state of the PGM market this time around either.

"I am optimistic about what the next quarter and new financial year will bring for the Company and Shareholders."

Very happy with the production level and hitting a new record but quite confused about the revenue gap this month.

Anyone have any thoughts?

Sorry PC malfunction there. If you calculate the revenue based on the price and production and compare it to the reported revenue there is an unusual gap. Normally I attribute this to the refining cost but this quarter it seems exceptionally high. I was expecting revenue and EBITDA to be $3m higher.

Period Q319/Q419
Price 1383/1328
Production 16256/21789
Calculated Revenue 22.5m/28.9m
Actual Revenue 18.3m /20.2m
Difference 4.1m/8.8m

Something strange happened with revenue this quarter. My forecast was way off as a result. If you compare Q3 and Q4 you get the following:

Price 1383
Production

Looks like earlier this month Liberum reiterated their target price but raised their forecast. I haven't seen if there was a report but I'm guessing it was a change to their PGM assumptions. You can see the impact of their revisions below on expectations. The cycle of upgrades over the last 18 months makes for very pleasant viewing.

If you look at the 'financials' section Liberum are expecting EBITDA of $A64.6m. Not sure why its in $A but if you translate at 0.69 this gives 2020 EBITDA of $US44.6m and a P/E of below 5, before taking into account any surplus cash.

https://www.marketscreener.com/SYLVANIA-PLATINUM-LTD-7671108/revisions/

Agree Tardis, the overreaction to some of the events like the Uber case seems pretty extreme to me. Some of the movements over the last year have been very puzzling.

I believe valuation will win over sentiment in the end. The company is cheap on any measure, even if its multiple is half of what some of other players in the sector are the SP would be double where it is now. Cash flows are strong and the company seems desperate to buy back shares at these depressed levels.

This IC guy has the Midas touch!

After a few months of consolidation around 30p SLP at a multi year high today. Basket also at a multi year USD high and record ZAR basket. All we need is record quarterly production tomorrow.

I agree Shareminator don't think we will see 50p this year but 40p is looking pretty promising

Encouraging to see that Tremor is now updating its share register on the website more proactively. They really do seem to be making more of an effort these days.

As 25th July, after the sale of Lombard and investment by Mithaq, investors with over 3% hold 70% of the company.

https://www.tremorinternational.com/investors/

It may not feel like it a but the SP has pretty much been on a straight line uptrend for over a year as we move along our de risking journey. The recent bump in the PoG has caused the gradient to increase.

We've had a few impatient, anxious investors drop off along the way but as Elikhulu starts to produce more consistently and we pay down that debt patience will be further rewarded. I'm looking forward to that first dividend!

Eish this is nothing new. Barberton has over 100 entrances and mining equipment and explosives can be bought very easily in SA. PAF are more worried about people hurting themselves than them stealing something. On the plus side we should congratulate management for the improvement in the safety record and successful wage negotiations.

I'm more worried about Eskom, it could bring the whole economy under at some point although the weak rand helps.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-25/moody-s-says-south-africa-s-eskom-bailout-plan-credit-negative

July presentation out this week after the trading update. A whopping 50 pages this time around with 12 pages committed to the decom liability. Page 28 also makes a for a fascinating read, management have really tried hard to present the company with surety of future cash flows, like a high yielding junk bond.

https://ir.dgoc.com/presentations

At the current dividend yield, if you are confident about the company's future cash flows, don't think that natural gas prices are going to tank further at some point in the future and if you reinvest your dividends, your investment will have returned over 10% per year and will have doubled some time in the 8th year.