Member Info for ragnarlothbrok

Slow burner it seems Chris. The IC update normally follows the announcement that will no doubt turn a few heads.

Visitor I concur with your refiner comments. We have never confirmed which company it was but it has to be either Implats, Amplats or Sibanye/Lonmin. There are very few instances of debtors not being recoverable.

There was a time when there was some concern around the solvency of the refiners a few years back but if you look at the share prices of all these companies there is no worry about that now.

Welcome indeed SNN. Ofer needs to step up now as well.

Revenue $31.2m and EBITDA $19.2m for Q1. I nearly spat out my tea. The $4.7m sales adjustment has completely blown my expectations away. Should be an interesting day here

Cat argue with that TBTT. Don't forget about fantastically high margins providing a buffer through tough times.

SLP EBITDA Margin %
Q219: 36%
Q319: 44%
Q419: 46%
Q120: 53% (My estimate)
Q220: 56% (My estimate)

Anyone know any debt free companies with 50%+ EBITDA margins?

It makes the paltry dividend seem even more odd, especially with the lack of any concrete growth options. Hopefully we hear more about these soon. Can't see anyone rushing to build more chrome mines right now though.

I guess a 9% return in a South African bank account is ok, if the ZAR doesn't fall 9%, which is entirely possible.

Hi Visitor, thanks for sharing. Here are my estimates/guesses:
Production: 20100koz
Revenue: $21.1m
EBITDA: $11.3m
Net cash flow $6.2m (closing cash $28m)

What are your expectations for Q1?

Take a look at the 3 year chart view, that should cheer you up :-)

New load shedding started again this week due to 'high levels of unplanned breakdowns" (as opposed to planned breakdowns?) Eskom is basically bankrupt and is being propped up the government, whose credit rating is pretty much zero as a result.

Fair summary?

ZAR must be due a drop...

Unfortunately SLP still sells over 60% Pt by volume...

So I wonder if we get a free divi today? I can sell at the same price as yesterday but now we are ex

DGOC bouncing a little in line with what appears to be a small recovery in Appalachian prices.
https://www.naturalgasintel.com/data/data_products/daily

If you look at the price chart you won't need an article to tell you how depressed the market is. But here's one anyway.
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/natural-gas/101019-appalachian-natural-gas-production-growth-could-be-reaching-its-zenith

Was just noting that myself. Pd is DOUBLE Pt now. In 2014 73% of 3E PGM revenue was from Pt, now its 32%.

The price movements are remarkable in the context of the global market backdrop:

- Average YTD basket up 44% YoY, current spot price is 53% above 2019 average;
- Q120 v Q419 +21.1%, Q2 already up 15% on Q1

On the downside Eskom is load shedding again :-(
And the rise in sterling over the last week has reduced our dividend by 5%.

New Edison report out, very detailed, I got a few interesting tidbits which I had missed amongst the recent releases. My 2020 forecast is a little bit lower than theirs but not by much.

I believe the recent dip has been an outstanding opportunity to top up. PAF remains my pick of the gold producers on value and FCF yield. In its run to 15p the SP may have got a little ahead of itself but the uptrend is intact.

https://www.edisongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Pan-African-Resources-Entering-harvest-mode.pdf

The former employee first approached lawyers in 2010/11 with the information. They did not get back to him
In 2012 he approached Hanwa, the Japanese Samancor minority shareholder, they didn't get back to him
In 2015 approached another lawyer, suggesting a class action, they didn't get back to him
He approached a lawyer in 2015 who lost interest
In November 2017 he approached the NUMSA who lost interest
In 2018 the AMCU was contacted and took up the case on behalf of the employee benefits trust

" I have asked AMCU to seek an order that I be compensated should any compensation be paid as part of this application"

You can read the affadavit here:
https://amabhungane.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/1.-2019-09-25-Kon-Affidavit_SIGNED.pdf

Hey TBTT, long time, thanks for posting.

Had a quick look at that, what a load of TOSH

A disgruntled former Samancor employee trying to stir up some trouble between former Samancor shareholders. It also seems to be in some way some supported/funded by the AMCU with the investigation carried out by some shady organisation. And the purpose of all this is to force Samancor to provide documents proving its shady dealings from 10 years ago. Where are the former shareholders who have apparently been ripped off? What is AMCU's motive here?

Its South Africa I suppose, anything could happen

Couldn't resist a few at 31.3

We are back to March levels, we have derisked 2020 production compared to that time and prices are 25% higher

Volume definitely higher than usual. Some large trades going through today, including 2 x 300k earlier, accompanied by a barrage of medium sized sells. The timing of the seller appears pretty awful considering the increase in volume into the 45p peak a month ago and we are back down to the levels of March, over 6 months ago.

The sell off appears a bit more savage than what's occurred in the past but liquidity in UK markets and AIM is at rock bottom now, which may enhance the impact. Any international investors may be getting nervous given its a sterling denominated asset. Hard to say with these things, but getting sucked into panic selling is probably the worst thing to do right now

Some fall today eh? On the leaderboard.

Doesn't look like anyone is buying into this drop.

If impending Q1 results in 4 weeks don't get attention then nothing will. I think the ZAR is about to tank again as well.

The basket is up over 20% QoQ, the largest quarterly increase in price for a long time, probably since the last rhodium bubble. Thats the 5th consecutive quarterly increase.

I was well off last quarter with my estimate but I'm expecting FCF for the quarter of $8m and cash of nearly $30m. Theres no tax payment in Q1 and its generally a pretty good month for production.

If you scroll down Bazzaman posted this "Ex-div date is 17th October with dividend payable on 30th November fyi. GLA"

It's so small you probably wont even notice the impact on the SP

I am ITCHING to find out more about these 'growth projects' which the board is hoarding the cash for...

In the chrome market Samancor is more likely to be thinking about cutting production than new starting projects...