Member Info for ragnarlothbrok

I agree, if they were so concerned about the debt they wouldn’t have paid that special dividend.

I note that the short interest has increased to over 10%. Seems to be a very crowded trade. Hopefully they issue a positive trading statement this month.

Curious that Norges is openly lending out its shares to the shorters. Must be getting some good fees to supplement the already juicy dividend.

The valuation comparison with Cinemark is interesting – Cineworld trades on up to a 50% discount on some measures, I suppose reflecting Cinemark’s wider exposure to developing markets and the higher quality of their cinemas, but presumably also due to the short overhang.

A common mistake of investors is to cling to the past when making decisions and letting emotion cloud their judgment. The relics of long ago acquired business have moved on and been forgotten. I don’t know what Perk was... and I don’t really care... it just doesn’t seem very important.

Looking to the future Tremor is a different beast, with a management team leaner, hungrier and more motivated than in the past. The Taptica team have proven their competence several times over by growing revenue organically and successfully buying and integrating businesses. No one disputes that change happens rapidly in this industry and business will have ups and downs but I feel that management has a plan and is gradually getting on top of things. I'm enjoying seeing how it's going to play out.

The facts speak for themselves: market cap of $236m, cash $70m and expected free cash flow around $40m (and more next year) representing a EV/FCF yield of well over 20%. Simple maths.

Cineworld is the 4th most company in the UK, keeping such illustrious company as Thomas Cook and Debenhams. There are 10 hedge funds with almost 10% short interest that think Cineworld won't be able to pay its debts or will suffer as a result of market trends. This creates an opportunity for those who think differently.

https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B15FWH70/

Don't get me wrong Stockable, a plunge in the rand is great news for the company. Its revenue is denominated in USD but its costs and debt are in ZAR. The lower the ZAR the better, subject to SA keeping the lights on and maintaining a stable political and social environment in which companies can function.

Good points Goldenshares. Cinemark have a nice chart in their investor presentation showing the US box office trends since 1978. There does seem to be a 3-4 year cycle of growth.

https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_f1d74e836a273b216f26c5458aea6422/cinemark/db/843/7277/pdf/Goldman+Sachs+Investor+Presentation.pdf

SA released its budget yesterday and guess what the result was....drumroll please....Higher debt, widening deficits and reduced growth expectations, all largely due to the demise of Eskom and the $9 billion or so in funding it requires to keep the lights on until 2022. This should convince the last of the ratings agencies to lower its credit rating to junk status.

No surprise that the rand tanked yesterday and continues the slide today. Bad news for South Africa, unless you’re a precious metal miner.

I get a feeling the selling isn't quite finished yet

It says in the announcement they are using the proceeds to pay down debt. It also said they are securitizing upstream not pipeline, my mistake

Quite out of leftfield this one… so they are planning on packaging up some their assets and selling them into an SPV which will be divided into securities and sold to third parties, who will then get income from the securitized assets. I presume they must be looking into selling off some of their pipeline assets….

Will need to see more details of the proposed transaction and how they are planning to use the funds to understand the exact rationale. It’s surprising given that DGOC is well within its debt covenants and still has significant headroom on its debt and doesn’t really need to pay down debt any quicker.

Can anyone point me in the direction of some forecasts or broker analysis. Something more useful than

"Zak Mir...gives an overview of the FUNDAMENTALS in this CHARTING update".

Not sure how that works

Yes after checking the trading for the day a large number of delayed sells. That 300k volume doesn't include at least 500k in delayed sells that I can see so far. Looks like the seller(s) is still going but should get a couple of days of decent liquidity to hopefully finish it off. When that happens back to the 40s methinks

http://capita.moneyam.com/trades/SLP/Sylvania+Platinum?page=0

I think MMs have made a killing on this, walking it down for what seems to be the Majedie sell down and then a huge spike to offload them. I suspect we will be seeing some delayed sells coming through at some point

He certainly has a loyal following. Strong volume today, a few million traded today already. Good opportunity to clear any overhang

Right on time Bazzaman... Was wondering why the sudden surge...

Its funny that when the IC simply regurgitates the stats from the most recent announcement the herd arrives. It seems there are a lot of investors buying based on the IC advice column (ie not DYOR)

Hi Visitor, good work there. I recall now that there was an indeed an article in the FT last week which discussed Invesco, Lindsell Train and Majedie suffering from fund redemptions in September as a result of a loss in confidence in fund managers. Majedie had record fund redemptions in September. I wouldn’t be surprised if Miton was at risk as well. I note that the below link is from 1 September meaning that Majedie went below 3% prior to this date, leaving a maximum of 3% in October (around 8.7m shares). I don’t think this represents a huge overhang given an average daily volume of well over 1m shares.

I agree it’s time to start the buyback again. It’s a shame management decided to do the buyback of employee shares right at the peak but maybe they expected that after the huge beat in Q1 the SP would fly.

https://www.sylvaniaplatinum.com/im/shareholder_info.php

There has been some institutional sized trades going through in the last few weeks, including today. Shares here all held pretty tightly, I think at least 60% are in sticky insto hands which haven't moved for years (plus a good deal more in sticky PIs hands and non disclosed instos). So low free float means moves up and down are exaggerated in times of low volume. I have faith it will bounce back, took a few at 33p today.

Hi guys, it's frustrating that the SP can’t hold onto its gains but it don’t think it reflects any specific company fundamentals. It's impossible to understand the reason for periods of net selling but I think it's more about individual circumstances than anything company specific. The fundamentals look solid with production and the basket at a record high. The Q1 result should give real cash flow momentum for this year and the Liberum forecasts are already looking very conservative.

Recent trading is following an identical pattern to this time last year. The SP peaked in early September at 24p after the excitement of the results. But then the decline started took 4 months to bottom out at below 16p (33% fall) in line with declining volumes, lack of news and the general market conditions. Then the SP doubled in less than 3 months from December with no obvious reason (no news and a flat basket price...

Volumes have been relatively low this last two weeks and there were some large sell orders which take their time to work through.

Also, my opinion is that the Samancor case is just a dime a dozen share class actions, the fact that is being financed by the AMCU makes it more emotional for some.

I can think of quite a few reasons Eish. But most simply infrastructure is expensive and requires foreign investment. South Africa's recent history does not encourage foreign investment. Not many willing to take a risk building a huge project in an emerging market when you can do the same thing in other places with less risk and that do not have constant threat of civil unrest, strikes, a volatile exchange rate and unreliable power

Overly bullish expectations lead to disappointment more often than not.

FiveCandles who do you think is most likely to place a bid for the company ? There has been very little foreign investment in the SA mining sector in recent years given the political instability, strikes, social unrest and infrastructure issues.

Most precious metal operations in SA are owned by SA headquartered companies with listings on the JSE: Amplats, Implats, Sibanye, Harmony, AngloGold, Tharisa, Gold Fields. BHP divested its entire South African operations into South32.

Hi Chris, Liberum upped its target price from 70p to 83p yesterday. They are the house broker so I would say it’s a bit inflated so I would recommend doing a DCF to come up with a valuation you feel comfortable with, all the information is available, you will just need to choose an appropriate discount rate and price deck. My own target is 64p, with an 18.5% discount rate and current prices.

I see slim chance of an acquisition for these reasons:

- Foreign investors are steering well clear of South Africa and have been for many years now
- I’m assuming Samancor has some say veto over any change of control and would not be willing to upset the status quo. Samancor and SLP have forged a very long and prosperous relationship together
- Sylvania is primarily a chrome producer which could deter other SA precious metal producers