Member Info for ragnarlothbrok

If you look at some of the other companies that have 10% short (Debenhams, Carillion, Thomas Cook) it seems to imply there is a good chance the company will go bust.

As a percentage of free float its even higher, more like 20%, once you take out the sticky holders, which is huge.

There was a trading update on 15th November 2018. I don't know if we can expect something similar (tomorrow?)

https://www.investegate.co.uk/cineworld-group-plc--cine-/rns/trading-update/201811150700074067H/

I don't blindly follow brokers forecasts without doing my own research first but its always healthy to debate the merits of their forecasts because they have more access to management and, regardless of their accuracy and motives, they are professionals and are putting their numbers out in the public domain.

If anyone has some contradictory analysis or opinions on the company's prospects with reference to some hard numbers I would like to see them. That would be much more productive than wasting everybody's time bickering about other posters.

I wonder how long Norges will watch its investment in CINE eroded until it recalls the 3% it has loaned out to the short sellers. Difficult to guess what their strategy is given the size and complexity of the fund. Must be getting some juicy loan fees on top of the dividends so far this year.

When considering the SP movement you should also consider the 30p in dividends that have gone ex since June 2019 and 37p since June 2018. Can't argue with the underperformance against the FTSE250 though.

The £2m SP purchase by the Greidinger family trust in August is interesting. Investing for your children is the ultimate long term investment, although if they could afford to invest £2m then they probably wont even noticed this being eroded if the SP falls further.

Hi David. I don't have a Stockopedia subscription unfortunately but I know other sources where I can usually get some info. It doesn't seem that there is any recent broker coverage out there. There are some short notes from Hybridan and a forecast from Edison from December 2018 who are expecting £9.5m revenue in 2020. Based on the trading update of £2.8m for H1 that requires £1m per month, which is achievable considering they did this in October and I would expect to be the bare minimum.

Continuing the recent growth rates, with revenue doubling in September, the higher volume Christmas period, the arrival of cold weather bringing more higher margin cold weather purchases and the success of the recent marketing campaigns, this could be meaningfully higher. September revenue was £0.7m, with October 44% higher at £1.0m, so if they continue the trend of adding £200-300k per month they could achieve a monthly run rate of £2.0m/mth by March, with 2020 revenue in the £12-13m range.

The major unknowns are can the growth be sustained, how much cash they burn through to get there and when the next raise will be...

Brokers are often wrong, but just recalling a couple of the highlights of the last Finncap broker note:

"Looking ahead, TRMR has made an excellent strategic move into the booming video market, with its exchange up and running. It is well funded, streamlined and future new business on the platform should drop straight through to profit."

"TRMR, with its track record of integrating and improving businesses while being highly profitable and cash generative, should trade for much more than 2x current EBITDA.

The operations update today is one of the most comprehensive and reassuring announcements I have seen for some time. The team at DGOC, while acknowledging the volatile pricing environment, are working hard to deliver the promised earnings for this year by focusing on costs, efficiency and financing optionality. I think they should be commended for their enthusiasm and energy!

https://www.investegate.co.uk/diversified-gas---38-oil--dgoc-/rns/operations-and-trading-update/201911140730033996T/

Alessandro I would recommend keeping an eye on the Appalachian basket - compare it to the DGOC share price and you can see a close correlation, although this has recently disconnected as prices have strongly recovered while the DGOC continues to slide.

https://www.naturalgasintel.com/data/data_products/daily

The whole basin is suffering from oversupply which is expected to put the brakes on any sustained price rises, so its unlikely the SP is going to ignite anytime soon. The longer prices stay low the more questions are raised about the dividend.

This is an article about a competitor. Gives you a good flavour on what is happening in the industry.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4305679-southwestern-energy-huge-drop-gas-prices

Check out the others like Montage Resources, Range Resources, CNX and Antero

Definitely seems wrong to me. How did they suddenly get to 10% without notifying? If they are still wanting to offload then the SP isn't going anywhere. Cash continues to be sucked out of UK funds as we speak, so could be a possibility.

I noticed that uptick in rhodium. 43% of PGM revenue now coming from Rh. BASF says 5650. Recent Pt action been pretty depressing - after 1 month of grinding higher it was all wiped out within a week.

Morgan Stanley downgraded to underweight with a price target of 200 today. A host of other brokers rate this as a buy, the most recent Peel Hunt reiterating a buy yesterday with a price target of 300p. Brokers are rarely right about the success of a company and will use their influence to move the SP in the short term and support other IIs into bullying others into selling.

As a PI the only way you can win is to have a strategy and the discipline to execute. If you believe in the industry and think the threat of the debt and people staying at home to watch Netflix are overrated (like I do) today is an opportunity. If I'm wrong then at least I had a well researched plan which I committed to. So I took a few more at 208 this morning.

By the way Morgan Stanley went below 3% on 13 August. And could have unloaded the rest over the last 3 months. Convenient timing for the downgrade?

https://www.investegate.co.uk/cineworld-group-plc--cine-/rns/holding-s--in-company/201908131557149128I/

Indeed oilovlam.

There are too many cases of sells by PDMRs being a prelude to bad news. Conversely, there are plenty of examples of director buys without any good news or positive performance.

There are innumerable examples of directors selling for genuine reasons with no bad news in the pipeline.

Exercising your skill and judgement in situations like this can be the difference between profit and loss.

My understanding is that the tax laws are much stricter in the US than the UK and tax payable will often crystallise without even selling the underlying asset. You will even have to pay tax on unvested RSUs.

I assume that Yaniv moving to the US has created a tax obligation on the RSUs. The shares sold represent roughly 20% of the total entitlement which doesn’t sound unreasonable or like a cover up to me.

Today's TR1 discloses that Majedie went from 9.93 to 4.68%. When exactly did they hold 9.93? The corporate presentation says Majedie was 5.77% at 30 June... Did they add 5% after this and then sell? I suppose it could explain the sudden run up to 44p and then the plummet back down to 31p but something seems to be missing here

https://www.sylvaniaplatinum.com/im/files/documents/20190902%20Sylvania%20FY2019%20Roadshow%20Presentation%20-%20FINAL%202.pdf

Hi MF2017, I think it will take time for the company to fully restore investors' trust. Markets are very jittery right now with POG and the ZAR bouncing around so a relatively small, indebted company like PAF will be prone to taking some profit taking in the absence of news.

The retrace from the 14s to the 10s feels similar to the one from earlier this year from 11p to 8. It consolidated for a while afterwards and then resumed the upward trend. The SP is sitting right on the 200 DMA, so looks like a pretty good place to settle to me.

A few have lost patience and dropped off along the way but Cobus has done alright this last year and deserves a chance to finish the job in my book.

Gas prices are extremely volatile in the US at the moment. Dominion prices, one of the key regional Appalachian prices, increased over 20% yesterday. Others also increased significantly, including Henry Hub (one of the key prices for DGOC hedging program), as unexpectedly cold weather swept across the US. Doesn’t look like it will last long but Mother Nature seems pretty angry at the moment.

And of course, nice to see another value accretive deal from Rusty today, $10m more in the coffers thank you very much sir.

I go to the cinema in London probably once a month: Cineworld, Vue, Odeon, independents. I'm not really that fussed which, although the Vue at Stratford is one to be missed. Cineworld is usually pretty good

My understanding is that Regal has been losing market share to Cinemark recently and in order to address this Cineworld, as part of the acquisition rationale, intends to address the underinvestment by Regal and refurbish a lot of the cinemas in the US.

I may be making this up but I remember Regal has a reputation of being a bit run down and it’s a race between the major players to make a more premium experience.

The Cinemark Q3 release came out today, it shows a 9% Q319 v Q318 growth in revenue, which is very healthy indeed. Although the shares are down 3%

https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_7264c2c564c40e9bea237ff904e1ec53/cinemark/db/843/7276/pdf/Investor+Presentation+-+Q3+2019.pdf

Majedie suddenly went below 3% between the investor presentation on 2/9/19 and the update on the website 30/9/19 without any notification that I'm aware of. I think we are well overdue a holdings RNS but I'm not going to hold my breath

Huge increase in volume over the last week, in 5 days over 15 million shares changed hands. That’s over 5% in a week!

The volume of buys has been remarkable. It looks like the seller has managed to offload a very large stake with very limited impact on the SP, probably helped a lot by our friend at the IC and maybe a delayed reaction to the strong Q1 results.

And maybe Kolisi for president?

ZAR seems to be recovering, for now, after Moodys didn't fully downgrade SA debt to junk. But how long can the optimism last? They have very little margin for error