Member Info for ragnarlothbrok

Thanks for sharing Peterson.

Yesterday Goldman, JPM and UBS all reiterated their buy recommendations although the target prices and consensus expectations have all been drifting down over the last 2 months.

It will be very interesting to see over the coming weeks and months how committed some of these short sellers are...between the dividend yield and the borrowing costs it is an expensive position to take

If there's a silverlining to be found in this morning price action on Cineworld is that you should never let bad previews prevent you from going to see a movie you fancy. Pre market indications (we saw 6 of them) for the stock were pointing out to a fall of between 1 and 5% at the open after the company warned its full year earnings would be below forecast. "We would expect focus on the box office underperformance and weaker FY expectations, which may see the shares lower today", UBS analysts wrote before the bell. So at first it did look like the expected flop, but then this happened, a 10% comeback within 40 minutes:

Why? That's obviously the question on everybody's mind, particularly those who got burnt on the basis of the pre market indications.

"A rise in Cineworld’s share price on today’s news is probably down to short sellers closing out their positions now we’ve had confirmation of weaker trading", wrote Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

Another view from CMC Market's Michael Hewson is that Frozen 2 – a Thanksgiving hit – and the imminent release of the latest Star Wars "could well pick up the slack in the next few weeks".

Writing after the dust had settled, The Share Centre took the view that the company's fundamentals don't actually look bad even if its debt pile could be seen as spooky for cautious investors.

"With more potential benefits from Regal (their multi-billion U.S. acquisition) to come and a good dividend yield in place, we retain our ‘Buy’ recommendation for investors willing to accept a higher level of risk".

Bump in the SP today tells me that the market expected far worse than marginal 2019 underperformance flagged.

I expect to see the short position increase though, that's just their style.

Some good quality posting happening here lately, thanks for sharing your research!

Next year may be a bit slow but we just need to wait for the next Avatar, Jurassic World to have a stonking year with some more special dividends.

I also am taking the opportunity to invest at these levels with a view of how things will look over the next 3-5 years.

Seller still lingering with another 650k offloaded yesterday.

I wonder where all that stock has gone...

I was holding Redde for the 33% dividend over the next few years. Now we get a lower dividend but which will grow as the combined company delivers its strategy.

This slightly came out of leftfield for me but the more I think about the more it makes sense. Should be some significant cost and working capital synergies. I don't really know enough about Northgate at this stage to evaluate the revenue synergies.

I'm pleased Martin Ward will stay in charge, I think he's done an outstanding job, despite the share price underperformance.

I think they think they need the cinemas for the award nominations. So maybe their plan is for films like the Irishman can be shown in their own cinemas and still be nominated for an Academy Award. This reduces the need for cinema chains which I suppose Netflix considers the enemy

The SLP price basket is currently just below $1800/oz. In 2016 it was a little over $800. That record quarter that SLP had in Q1… well prices are on course to be 20% higher in Q2. And the ZAR has stabilised recently at a level which still supports the low cost position.

Management just need to show us they can maintain production in the face of some operational headwinds and the EBITDA margin of 60% looks set to continue for at least this quarter. Relying on the rhodium price isn’t ideal but surely platinum can’t go any lower?!!!

As the cash builds and the margins rise it must become a more attractive target for a company like Sibanye who is very interested in metals recovery, for example its investment in DRD Gold

https://www.sibanyestillwater.com/business/southern-africa/gold-operations/drdgold/

Now over 12% with two funds increasing yesterday. No surprise that the one with the largest position, D1 Capital Partners, has a large long position on Netflix and is incredibly bullish on its outlook. So one of those that thinks people will all be sitting around at home watching Netflix on tv all day and not doing anything else with their lives.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/dan-sundheims-d1-capital-partners-piles-into-faang-stocks-2019-11-1028690941

HSBC reiterates 'Buy' with price target of 360

RBC Capital Market reiterates 'Top Buy' but reduces price target from 400 to 300p

No real surprises here but for me the the key figures are the £1m revenue run rate, which continued into November, implying annualised GM of around £6m, and the repeat order rate of 1.66 times, increasing from the prior period, implying still some way to go in developing a loyal following of repeat customers (as a comparison, Boohoo averages a little over 2 orders per customer in 12 months).

Burning through the cash as expected, but should have enough for the next 12 months at current spend. However I wouldn't be surprised (or disappointed) to see another capital raise in around 6 months to pursue growth more aggressively if the fundamentals of the business continue to show strong improvement and they continue to build the customer database.

The business model looks sound so far but I'm not expecting a profit anytime soon!

Good news indeed, certainly cements Disney's cinema dominance even further. Could bode well for Mulan next year

The Lion King also did extremely well in Q2, it was the 4th highest grossing Disney film ever.

https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-records/worldwide/all-movies/theatrical-distributors/walt-disney

A few points from an article today in the Times today about the cinema industry. Nothing new here for the well researched but makes a few good points:

- Netflix is not offering cinemas the standard exclusivity terms for the Irishman so none of the major chains will be showing the film. Highlights the uncertainty of the impact of Netflix and the streaming wars
- The industry has overly relied on Disney with a 33% market share of cinema revenue in the UK over the last year. This means that the release of Disney's own streaming service is unlikely to change its profitable arrangement with cinemas
- The head of Vue thinks that the future of the industry is in vertical integration. This could mean a large cinema chain becomes a target for Apple, Amazon, Disney or Comcast
- Hedge funds are focusing on CINE's debt pile, the popularity of streaming services and the weakness in next year's slate.

Some BOLD words from Mooky...

"...Mooky Greidinger, is sanguine. “The short position has no real substance,” he said. “This business has been in the industry for a long time and has had all kinds of ups and downs. The streaming threat is non-existent in my eyes...”

Hi Craig, those buys are being used to soak up an institutional sell down which is happening in the background. Been happening for weeks or even months now. There was a 500,000 sell today at 37p which often doesn't show up until the end and cancels out that strong buying (whoever made those few sells below this level really needs to think through their investment strategy).

Majedie's UK focused funds performed poorly over the last few years. Since the Woodford scandal investors have been ditching funds like these. Unfortunately for them its probably the worst time but it creates an opportunity for the liquid and canny.

Cant blame you. Its been a bloodbath.

Noticed Goldman buy recommendation today. And shorts slowly now 10.7%.

Something just aint quite right here

Basket at a record high with rhodium approaching 6000 and a recovery in the other PGMs. 10000/oz doesn't seem so far away now for the most precious of metals

Good weekend all!

Thanks for sharing that Jenks. A bit late indeed.

Cinemark released its Q3 results last week (but is bound by the US rules on quarterly reporting) showing US revenue growth of 9% Q319 v Q318 and 2% YTD growth v 2018.

I haven't seen the Morgan Stanley note but there were some comments in the press yesterday about it

Cineworld tumbled 14½p, or 6.6 per cent, to 204p after Morgan Stanley initiated coverage of the world’s second largest cinema group with an “underweight” rating. Analysts gave credit for the rollout of its “unlimited” subscription programme at Regal cinemas in America. Customers can watch as many movies as they like for a membership fee starting at $18 a month.

However, analysts predict weaker US box-office sales next year, which they expect to fall by 7 per cent, compared with 3 per cent this year. They also warned that rivals had launched subscription programmes in better-invested estates, which could restrict membership growth. Morgan Stanley issued a price target of 200p and investors took note. The shares fell 14½p, or 6.6 per cent, to 204p.

I thought the notification disclosure rule was per AIM Rule 17: A holding of 3% or more in any class of AIM security (excluding treasury shares) and any increase or decrease in such holding through any single percentage point.

With the major exemptions being market makers and certain classes of foreign investors.

I'd be happy with Sylvania Metals. The name change seems to have worked for Jubilee

Hi Speilgood, that's a mighty fine first contribution. I pretty much agree with what you say, though I don't know how much firepower management have to take any action at the moment.

CINE has fallen from around 3p to 2p, adjusted for dividends that's a 25% fall. To compare this to Cinemark, its SP has fallen from 42p to 34p. The dividend is smaller so the decline is only about 15-20%. Cine has lost market share recently in the US and has more debt which perhaps warrants a bigger decline in uncertain times. However as you say they didn't have an unlimited program so hopefully that helps.

Everyman is down about 10% but further from its peak. Cineplex in Canada is down but not so much.

https://ycharts.com/companies/CNK
https://ycharts.com/companies/CGX.TO