Member Info for ragnarlothbrok

Almost half way to $10000

DGOC paid around $4m per well for the HG energy assets. So 13 wells for $50m sounds about right, we should find this out tomorrow morning they should probably be going into court around now.

Regardless of how many wells I'm not sure even if there is a route to market given the explosion at the pipeline and the bitter dispute with the pipeline owner which triggered the bankruptcy of Edge Marc. These deeply distressed deals seems to be DGOC's bread and butter so I'm going to assume they know what they're doing.

Platinum up 3% as I type to $890/oz a 4 month high. Reports claim the Chinese are considering ways to boost the auto sector, flowing through to Euro autos and mostly likely driving Pt higher

$4360/oz, here we go. At this price SLP is a primary rhodium producer (by revenue).

I hope the prill splits haven't changed too much...

Everyone is a little skittish about this, looking into the tea leaves for reasons for sell. I guess I'm not surprised given the history of disappointment, the constant attacks from various directions, the suspicious trading patterns and the sometimes sketchy industry tactics.

I'm keeping my eye on the prize. The company is a prodigious cash generator. There are very few opportunities for a 2019 FCF yield in excess of 20%. Opportunities like that rarely come along.

If there is any sniff of an auto recovery Pd will go nuts again. Shorting Pd has been an extremely overcrowded crowd recently with almost everyone declaring the boom over. Its exactly this kind of wall of worry which builds bull runs.

Rhodium is the same but worse. Its a smaller market and the increase in loadings will have an even bigger impact on the imbalance in the market. Its on a tear right now...

Great time for SLP to aggressively sweat the SDO assets and produce the maximum ounces.

That was you with that 2.5k 40p top up wasn't it Dan?

They have reported every year in September. The business is much more bigger and more complex than last year, with increased scope for the auditors and a whole lot of acquisition accounting . I don't think that an extra few weeks should ring any alarm bells.

2017 results : 27/9/17
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail/TRMR/13374964.html
2018 Results: 4/9/18
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail/TRMR/13777456.html
2019 Results: 24/9/19

When is the 40p party?

I think you're right DtM. Bounced back quicker than I expected... very bullish move back towards 40p. Cleared out the weak holders, so not much holding it back now

Good summary! And good time to top up.

I've been in this long enough to know that sometimes a share can get ahead of itself and succumb to some simple profit taking. Given the gains that most have made and the recent uncertainty small caps like this are the first to get sold off. We have shown the new high to be nearly 39p so expect to settle between 30 and 35 for a few months.

But remember the simple rule: CASH FLOW WILL PREVAIL

We will add $7m in cash this quarter with no tax and low capex. In the current price environment the directors could choose to pay the whole thing out as a special divi. But i think the directors are too conservative for that. But i don't mind as it puts us on a FCF yield of over 15%.

Wow that is some chunk!

The buys are trickling in quite steadily. I don't think we are quite done yet

Buy your gf something nice :)

Nearly nearly 40p. Didn't think it would get here this quickly! ZAR continues to tank... rhodium creeping up again. At this level 35% of 3E PGM revenue from rhodium, almost as much as platinum.

Any guesses?

If SLP produced 22koz in Q419 this implies an 88koz/year name plate capacity without feedstock constraints. This was no doubt an exceptional quarter with some feedstock and grade benefits which may not be continuing. But there is also some upside from the Moonoi MF2 and Lesedi optimisations.

I reckon they will go for guidance of 76koz.

The implosion of the ZAR is helping this out big time. Both ZAR/USD baskets at record highs. And rhodium launching a new offensive. The rhodium chart is starting to look eerily like the last rhodium bull run.

https://apps.catalysts.basf.com/apps/eibprices/mp/DPCharts.aspx?MetalName=Rhodium+++++++++++++&Market=EIB

The PoG is at 22600/oz, almost off this chart

https://goldprice.org/gold-price-charts/10-year-gold-price-history-in-south-african-rand-per-ounce

I think the debt of PAF has scared a lot of investors away. There was a time not too long ago when there was speculation PAF needed a capital raise due to a risk of breaching covenants. The PoG price rise has come just at the right time. In a rising price environment the most leveraged plays deliver the biggest gains. The gold bugs, the faithful and the patient have been rewarded here, with more to come I think.

Agreed. The rising price of gold is no doubt increasing the chance of the dividend.

I doubt it. Management are unlikely to be buying shares into a rising market, they are too prudent for that. They'll wait for a dip.

Basket is flying today in the face of a market beating. Someone keen on SLP though, its actually behaving like a precious metals company.

Edison is paid by the company to produce that report. Essentially they are cheerleaders. I always apply a discount to the forecasts Edison produce, I don't recall ever results in line with their forecasts, or even in line. The value for me from their reports is the qualitative summary and highlighting the full potential of a company if they are running at full steam.

Management may prefer to invest in the growth projects rather than pay a dividend. I would tend to agree in this price environment.