Member Info for ragnarlothbrok

Bruce on June 10th 42Trader was incorrectly referencing a previous RNS in May which showed the Woodford holding increasing by 1%.

Woodford dumped 8% yesterday , part of this was taken up by Griffiths.

I looked at TSG a while back but the huge overhang and extremely low liquidity put me off. Always had my eye on AAZ, nearly went in after the recent pullback but hesitated and lost. Maybe next time.

Got out of HUM a wile back. Didn't realise it was now 15p (!), might have to take another look. CEY has a good yield but valuation a bit punchy for me. I don't see a huge upside.

I've gone for PAF for my gold exposure. Transitioning from mining to tailings processing, started to delever and returning to dividends within 12 months I reckon.

Terrible news rolling around the global auto market

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-12/china-auto-sales-just-posted-their-worst-month-ever

Still hanging in there I see Shareminator....

Entertaining volatility and the basket in ZAR terms is back at record highs while the SP is 16% off its high.

Not a bad retrace, hurts a bit but seen this a few times over the last 2 years. Buying on the dips in SLP has always served me well so I'm keeping the faith and been adding a few more at these levels. As that cash pile builds it will drag the SP up with it.

I'm not usually one for TA indicators but look at what happened the last time the RSI fell below 30 in December 2018. On the back of the subsequent surge in Rh and Pd the SP then put on 100%. We might see the same kind of rally here again soon, once the PGM price news starts to filter into the market.

Looks like panic buying.

BASF says 3485 in Asia which means the recent correction has been fully recovered. Very under the radar, hasn't been picked up by any news yet that I can see. ZAR basket is actually back to the levels before the Pd correction, supported by the ZAR getting punished and Pd steady recent recovery.

So by my calcs at current prices SLP gets 33% of its revenue from Rh and and 27% from Pd. Pt only 39% which is a record low. Its only 37% when you consider by products.

Wild ride for rhodium...

https://apps.catalysts.basf.com/apps/eibprices/mp/DPCharts.aspx?MetalName=Rhodium+++++++++++++&Market=AEIB

Rh at 3085. Basket is not far off returning to the record. When is the 21koz party?

Biggest day of volume for some time. Someone is rushing for the door. Could be Miton, they seem to be sellers lately.

The PGM fundamentals stay the same. Basket inched up again today with Pd approaching $1400. Outrageously bullish to think that Pd is going up in the face of the collapse in the auto market. Rh up for a 5th straight day. The correction looks quite healthy, hopefully resumes its nice and steady upwards trend.

Chrome is always the risk to the business through feed supply. Prices trending down reflecting risks to China stainless steel production. Always wondering what the intention is of Samancor, how low are their costs and how resilient is their production in the face of low chrome prices.

In my view the valuation discount in this share is largely explained by this uncertainty.

Woodford topped up in mid-May to 28%. Can't see any reduction in holdings you refer to.

Sentiment is weighing on Woodford held shares. Redde is held in his income focus fund, representing 4% of that fund. The fund has been frozen from redemptions and holds a high proportion of liquid listed companies (e.g. housebuilders, tobacco).

TW makes the following statement: "the company’s reported profits come almost entirely not from oil and gas produced but from the most aggressive of accounting slights of hand which are completely at odds with all peer group companies"

For anyone using investopedia, Sharepad etc you will see reported profits/EPS inflated by the gain on acquisition. FACT. When you look at the company's annual report (link below) you will see:

- With the exception of reported EPS, which is not a core KPI and is as reported, not a single metric seeks to claim credit for the gain. They also disclose underlying/adj EBITDA/share;

- Adj EBITDA excludes gains on acquisition (Page 10 Annual report). Further, there is a reconciliation of EBITDA in note 6, page 63. Its is generally accepted practice to reconcile underlying and reported earnings.

- The core KPIs are operating cash flow per share, unit cash costs, realised selling prices and dividends per share. They are all either cash or operationally based. I can't see any deceit by the company to attempt to influence these metrics with aggressive acquisition accounting;

Backing the research of an anonymous job seeker without doing any research of his own is completely bizarre. TW clearly has not read the financial statements, earnings presentations or in fact done any research at all. I can't believe people pay money for this tripe.

Hey Shareminator, long time

The rhodium price could certainly be impacted by current sentiment. Without a steady rhodium supply the US auto market would fall flat on its ass. The PGMs are listed in the US list of 35 critical metals and they produce very little themselves. Although none come from China, Russia is always a risk with 35% of PGMs production.

I agree re valuation. Price wise I think platinum will be rangebound for a while but has bottomed out. There is a shortage of Pd no matter how much auto demand declines. The ZAR has tanked as well.

Value wise I still can't find a company to match the near term cash generative capacity of SLP. I've been selling in the 30s as it was 45% of my portfolio. But I bought some more today with a 2 year horizon in mind again.

I hope they get close to their Q4 production target!!

I can't actually read the article by the way. If you can't tell from my previous post I don't respect TWs opinions and I certainly wouldn't pay for Share Prophets.

Lost all respect for Tom Winnifrith eons ago. His track record is as bad as Woodford's. At least Woodford has made a lot of money for people. It's so easy to throw stones but to be successful you need to back some winners as well. TW has backed more duds than anyone.

Loving the chat here though, I love a bit of controversy. There have certainly been some interesting points getting raised here this week, that's what these boards should be for.

In PGMs and the markets in general over the last couple of weeks. Despite all the news about the Pd bubble deflating and the glut in Pt the basket is only 11% off its peak. Rhodium inching back up again?

Terrible South Africa GDP data this week has pushed the ZAR to a 9 month low

This guy has been at Game for such a long time, I don't know how many times he has seen it go bust. SP is near rock bottom as the cycle repeats itself again.

I'm concerned that he and the BoD will somehow convince some large shareholders to hold out and SD will pull the pin putting the SP back into the low 20s.

Belong is behind schedule and moving too slow in this market. It has not proven its business model and is being overtaken by other gaming concepts. Despite having 'Digital' in its name there is very little Digital about it. I'm out after a couple of years in here, prospects are slim and SD is a white knight in my eyes. Lucky to sell most on the last big spike and get out with a gain on this one. Could have been worse. GLA

Natural gas prices are down over 10% in the last week. DGOC has a very high proportion of hedged prices as part of its financing deals and so is relatively insulated from the short term price trend.

Miton dumped a huge amount yesterday. I believe they are reducing their exposure to other stocks as well. They may reduce further.

I don't really care for these anonymous self serving short attacks. It doesn't matter if the asset life is 50, 100 or 1000 years, once you get over 20 its not that important. But I do agree they should get their message right and stick to it without tweaking these numbers all the time.

Rusty and his team and are up to their eyeballs in this and still they buy more. The buybacks are a great response and signals their intention to hoover up stock. Perhaps they should have waited a couple of days to let it settle and then get it but they got a good price today.

At 10% relatively safe yield which is well covered by cash flow the income seekers will return... in time. Ride it out

And gold at 1325...

PS Look at the one year price chart!

Eish, price was down because of a random UT on Friday. We are at a 3 month high... Gold looking strong, rand looking weak, decent operational update, all falling nicely into place for the patient.

Truly. £100m at half year, hopefully a bit lower now.

Seems a lot compared to market cap but EBITDA around 60, next year 80 and drastically reduced capex should help swiftly reduce this pile.

Most importantly, no bad news... I thought maybe the load shedding would hurt production at Elikhulu.. This sentence is particularly interesting:

Elikhulu’s all-in sustaining cost of production continues to be lower than previously anticipated, at less than US$600/oz