Member Info for ragnarlothbrok

It will be interesting to see how they can convert these partnerships and opportunities into revenue and ultimately a US profit contribution. The US has always been a very difficult market for UK companies to crack

So Lombard getting out and some Saudi Arabian company is in? That's what drove the price up the other day. They must have been sitting below 3% prior to that and bought a bunch on market to now be sitting on 6%.

Well its not a boring share to hold, always something happening.

Cant see much wrong with today's release:

- Using the stated net debt/adjusted EBITDA number of 2x, and debt of $613m, implies adjusted EBITDA of 306m, slightly ahead of $300m consensus.

- Debt is reducing nicely, and costs are under control.

- Plugging is going according to plan despite the recent scepticism : "Since the beginning of 2018 through 30 June 2019, DGO has plugged 90 wells at an average cost of $23K per well, approximately 5% below the Company's estimates"

- Rusty, as always, seems hungry for more acquisitions and the current period of price weakness is likely to be helping him out: "We now enter the second half of 2019 with approximately $335 million of liquidity, well positioned to respond to market dynamics and opportunities to create long-term shareholder value."

Should be an interesting result in the next week or so. Looking to churn out 21koz+ of PGMs in Q4 . This will give us a good idea of nameplate capacity of the SDO and how the Lesedi turnaround is progressing.

I'm not too fussed if we don't hit the ambitious target. I think there are some bargain hunters lurking which will take advantage of any drop (me!).

I'm expecting cash to be around $25m after a $5m tax payment. I think we could make up to $12m EBITDA in Q4 quarter if they hit the target. Could be huge...

Pt prices are staging a recovery of sorts with a very strong start for SLP 2020 basket.

I sense the paint drying around here... Basket has just about passed the recent record from earlier this year.

Small caps in general not being treated well with volumes extremely low. SLP holding up pretty well, buyers around when someone doesn't want to sell.

This explains the current PGM market well in one short article I thought

https://www.miningmx.com/news/platinum/37491-sharp-divide-separates-platinum-group-metal-believers-and-sceptical-dissenters/

Is on fire. Only 1% off the recent multi year high. Extreme volatility in Rh. Nicely poised for some good news on production in a few weeks.

I like it. Many companies will trades for months or even years with an outdated or irrelevant name.

Equals Group getting on the front foot and signalling their intention to build an empire with fx at the core but no longer defining the business.

Was not expecting that...

Appreciate you sharing this J.

More information on the asset retirement program is in the 2018 results presentation below. It describes their approach including the plugging commitment to each state ($2.5m p.a. until 2023). It will be interesting to see what these costs are each reporting period and, if in line, should substantially derisk the balance sheet ARO valuation. Plugging 100 wells at 25k a pop will go a long way to validating the estimate.

https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_4f30fa314df5ef797a45913feab9389d/dgoc/db/557/4296/pdf/DGOC+_IR+-+Earnings+Presentation+-+2018FY+Earnings+vFinal.pdf

I feel like risk is to the downside for these results. They have set expectations very high with some record busting production required despite plenty of potential headwinds. Perhaps they are anticipating a drop. Always hard to know with these guys, they keep their cards very close most of the time.

I think its wise for every company to have a buyback facility set up if they have the cash, to take advantage of any sudden unwarranted drops which they see as unrelated to underlying value

hey londoner7

I'm guessing the recent sp fall has been in reaction to the poor showings of recent films like X Men and MiB. People are looking for a signal for the end of the popularity of the superhero franchise model.

Looks like management have noticed the recent reduction in liquidity and have set up a small buyback warchest to take advantage of any sudden drop

As quick as it rose it now falls again. Rh back down to around 3200 after the recent peak of 3500. 10 straight days of rises followed by 5 consecutive falls. Must have been a buyer stocking up.

Pd closed at 1500 and Pd at 808 given a basket of 1282. Market is obviously concerned about a Pd shortage when the eventual recovery in the auto sector takes place.

With one week to go in the quarter it looks like Q4 will be around 3% higher than Q3 and 2019 10% higher than 2018.

FFX is steadily rolling out new products (and potential revenue sources) and the development pipeline is healthy with a number of things happening in the background.

Its all about scale and using the platform for adding revenue with minimal costs. We want a network of partners who lack the platform and are willing to take on the counterpart credit risk.

The AGM statement indicated we are on track to meet expectations despite the sterling weakness (always flagged as a major headwind). A P/E of 14 for next year, debt free and strong top and bottom line growth with improving margins all make me pretty comfortable with my position.

The stock has gone ex div for over 26p over the last couple of weeks. Add that back to get to 286 and we are around 10% off the recent peak of 320p. A 10% retrace doesn't seem so bad after the recent run.

With a forward P/E of <10 and a divi yield of 5%+ this stock is already priced on an ex growth basis. I never believe brokers, they always have an ulterior motives and while their opinions may move the dial in the ST more often than not they get it completely wrong.

Based on a ROE of over 10%, a pretty decent deleveraging profile, growing dividends and as a leader in a historically resilient market, CINE still remains a core of my LT income portfolio.

A few badly perceived news items this week. Firstly Merrill Lynch underperform note earlier in the week:

"We see limited rerating potential given structural headwinds. Attendance is falling and we see streaming services competition potentially accelerating the decline in the theatrical window. Lower investment and AMC's Stubs may lead to market share losses. 2020 Box Office likely to face challenging comp."

Heard it all before.

And then we have the auditor resigning as part of the commercial tender process for the audit. A few questions around governance

http://tools.morningstar.co.uk/tsweu6nqxu/globaldocuments/document/documentHandler.ashx?DocumentId=226456822

June 20 (Reuters) – U.S. natural gas futures fell to a fresh three-year low on Thursday following the release of a federal report showing a bigger-than-expected storage build last week and forecasts for cooler-than-previously expected weather in late June and early July.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added a whopping 115 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to inventories during the week ended June 14. That was the sixth week in a row that utilities boosted stockpiles by 100 bcf or more, the most since June 2014 when they made a record seven consecutive weekly triple-digit additions.

That topped the 107 bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compared with an increase of 95 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2014-18) average addition of

84 bcf for the period. It was also the fifth biggest build on record, according to EIA data going back to 2010. Three of the top five storage increases have now occurred this year. EIA/GAS The injection boosted stockpiles to 2.203 trillion cubic feet (tcf), 8.3% below the five-year average of 2.402 tcf for this time of year. The amount of gas in storage has remained below the five-year average since September 2017.

Front-month gas futures for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 7.2 cents, or 3.2%, to $2.204 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 10:47 a.m. EDT (1447 GMT), their lowest since May 2016. On Wednesday, the contract closed at its lowest since May 27, 2016.

Before EIA released the storage report, the front-month was up 1 percent.

That cut the 12-month strip to $2.38 per mmBtu, its lowest since March 2016. Futures for calendar 2020 , meanwhile, fell to a 29-month low, boosting the premium of calendar 2021 over 2020 to its highest since April 2018. Traders noted the front-month has remained close to multi-year lows since the end of May as near-record production and moderate weather this spring have allowed utilities to inject huge amounts of gas into storage, removing any lingering concerns of shortages next winter.

Analysts forecast stockpiles would reach a near-normal 3.7 tcf by the end of the summer injection season at the end of October. NGAS/POLL Output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 88.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) on Wednesday from a four-week low of 88.3 bcfd on Tuesday due to small declines in Texas, Colorado and Wyoming, according to data provider Refinitiv. That compares with an all-time daily high of 90.3 bcfd on April 20 and an average of 81.0 bcfd during this week last year.

The amount of gas coming from Canada to the United States on the Alliance pipeline dropped to zero on June 18 from 1.7 bcfd last week. The pipe, which shut for repairs in Iowa and Illinois, is expected to return on June 21.

Yeah the blogger spent a lot of time poking around and putting that piece together, but when you're unemployed your time is free. Tough work getting a job as an equity analyst in this environment. At least it created some interesting discussion but if it made you change your made about our investment then this game probably isn't right for you.

I don't believe we are likely to see any increase in decommissioning liabilities in the ST. The company has agreements with all the states which gives security over plugging volume. Cost has been determined with reference to the company's recent experience, not a motley crew of people I've never heard of like the blogger has referenced, one of which is a plugging contractor.

The biggest concern is whats happening to natural gas prices. This year DGOC have hedged 75% and next year 50% so agree with Carcosa, if prices dont recover in 12 months thats when the pain will begin to be felt. But on the flip side that will throw up more acquisition opportunities from stressed producers.

No such thing as easy money in this game. Don't forget that Edison is paid for this research but it is always a useful check for your own research.