Member Info for ragnarlothbrok

Taverham I know what you mean! A few more rises like today are very welcome. The market likes the numbers which is a relief. The recent SP action has been a bit painful.

Truro, I'm talking about profit, not revenue. A £2.5m reported profit makes a market cap of £170m look pretty punchy. A couple of years of £10m+ profit and this will be 50% higher and we may even see a dividend.

Taverham I'm not particularly worried but one summer a swallow does not make, as they say. I will feel more comfortable when they string a few results like today together. I'm very happy with the maiden profit in 2017 and the huge improvement this year. And it's a genuine profit as well, ignoring all the adjustments. But I would like to see that £2.5m a lot higher and recurring. It's a very competitive market out there, we need a couple more results to reinforce the strength of the business model, the scalability of the platform and the competitiveness of the brand.

Overall I'm very pleased with today's results and trading update yet I always try to be sceptical and keep an open mind.

Smells like a 2019 upgrade doesn't it Rivaldo? I was expecting a 700k increase in 2019 revenue v 2018, which they seem to have already achieved in Q1.

This comment is the most interesting for me, it seems like they have a pretty solid pipeline of new business:

"We anticipate continued growth in annual recurring revenue during the coming months which gives us confidence in further profitable growth beyond 2019"

Impressive increase in recurring revenue in 2019. It demonstrates the exact reason why I took a position here, which is the scalability of the platform leading to strong operational leverage. They have added revenue with no headcount which means a huge part of this revenue falls straight to profit. The current market situation seems to be converging favourably with recent news flow all very positive. Always hard to say what the short term market reaction will be but I'm pleased with today's announcement. GLA

Slightly messy set of results with a lot of one time transactions being stripped out.

2018 costs down H2 v H1 which is positive. They have been talking a lot about supply chain rationalisation and the associate margin benefits and good to see them delivering and starting to sweat the assets. The business continues to demonstrate tremendous operational leverage.

Key here for me is the YTD performance with Q1 ahead of expectations. I think today's result and outlook should satisfy the market - it looks like the recent SP reaction has reflected nervousness around 2019 outlook and Q2 pound weakness. Today's result takes that next step towards derisking the path to sustained profitably.

There is not much in the way of earnings visibility which means that, until we get some proper news ,this is one for the punters or those with blind faith in Mike Read. I couldn't care less about Assynt and would prefer they got rid of it. What I want to see is some news on Cyber and Solar Winds - if and when the revenue starts.

I honestly have no idea what to expect earnings wise which makes me very nervous. To start with I would be happy to see proper annual cash flow break even (not for one selected month) an improving mix of recurring revenue and control over their opex.

Share Prophets forecast 2020 PBT of as much as £2m recently. Tom Winnifrith's rage seems to have died down and FLX is once again a Strong Buy. But this is EXACTLY what he was saying a year ago and he seems to have a tendency to be mislead by management.

Progressive last updated in October 2018 where they forecast PBT of £0.9m in 2020, but excluding Solar Winds impact.

I guess the board is quiet because there isn't really much to talk about. FLX seems to have changed their tactics from last year when they were incessantly updating the market with every new contract and making promises which were always going to be difficult to keep (and which in hindsight demonstrated their desperation to prop up the SP in order to raise funds at a decent price).

This year all we have in the way of news is an out of date trading update and a new nomad Stifel. Which I guess is good news as they offer more services than Spark and will have done some due diligence. Hopefully we see a broker note from them at some point.

Very bullish note from Liberum. Looks like we will see some fireworks here. They appear to trying to address perceived valuation risks. Here are some quick observations of what I see as some new info:

- Concerns around the limits of feed supply life are not warranted. Continued supply from current arisings beyond the full depletion of tailings dumps in 2028, while lower, is not reflected in the current SP (some of the Samancor mines have RoM life of >50 years)
- This is the first hint I've seen that attempts to allocate production between dumps and current arisings - looks to be about 50/50
- they confirm that there are indications that Samancor may be considering expanding its chrome supply with potential new mines, meaning that there are potentially some growth projects for SLP. Its possible that the Lesedi mine may also be restarted
- management now have their excuse to sit on a huge cash pile: reserving this for future growth projects. Looks like the prospect of seeing a very high payout ratio with dividends in excess of 10% will be a lower priority to organic growth projects. Dividends probably won't exceed 5% yield for the next couple of years.

On projects:
- Grasvally could be worth $10m;
- Volspruit carrying value of $43m, with 50% of revenue from Pd/Rh. Water use license still outstanding.
We could some action on either of these within a year

After a recent site visit Liberum increased the SP target to 65p from 35p with an upside case of 106p. Planning on reading the note in detail later today. You can get the note from Research Tree

Good summary of why Pt has some upside potential

https://www.moneyweb.co.za/news-fast-news/platinum-edges-out-of-the-doldrums-at-last-as-labour-threat-looms/

NoelS remember we got our TU one week before the year end. With a 3 month lag.

FALANX:
"Both of Falanx's divisions experienced strong organic revenue growth in the third quarter of the year to 31 March 2019. Following the institutional fundraising in November 2018, the Company's cash balances remain strong and are able to support its next phase of growth".

My interpretation:

"Revenue is growing but we still don't have control of our costs and we aren't making money. But we can't be sure of this because our finance department only analyses results from 3 months ago. We THINK we have enough cash to get through the next 6 months. By then we will have thought of a new growth excuse to raise more funds to pay our wages"

Noel I think I recall last year that they intentionally delayed the results so they could focus on the First Base integration. It sounded like a bit of horse**** at the time. Perhaps they will revert to their July timeline this year. They could show some professionalism and release a trading update after the end of their year like most other credible companies do. Either way delaying releasing any financial information right until the last minute suggests the finance department aren't on top of things.

Oh ok cheers Auson I didn't know that was a thing.

Seems strange that despite the bid repeatedly dropping below 26p every trade seems to be at 26p.

Acquisition from Shearwater today in the Pen testing space, sounds uncannily similar to another company I know.

SWG valued at £30m with revenue not dissimilar to FLX and EBITDA loss making. Significant valuation gap. I guess SWG at least has an established business model while we are waiting for some Pie in the Sky Solar Winds

http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=SWG&ArticleCode=ffe9qo1q&ArticleHeadline=Acquisition_of_cyber_security_testing_business

Check out SQZ November 2017. Most likely trading will be restored the same day the prospectus is released to the market.

Could actually sell 5k above the bid today, which is pretty rare...

I don't think we are due any scheduled news for several months so if the SP is rising in anticipation of something in the short term I'm not sure what it is

FK1 I believe Mike Read bought in as high as 6.88p

Pretty good I'd say. If the operations reach the potential that was promised.

The interims didn't blow the lights out. Elikhulu had yet to fully ramp up meaning mining profit margin was pretty low, net debt was high and cash flow was still held back by construction. I think Elikhulu nameplate is only set to peak in February so we may not even see the full story in FY19.

Since then the SP has stabilised at 9p, some impatient holders being shaken out, as the market waits for more signs of delivery. I'm not adding right now but I'm certainly not selling.

SD would hit 30% ownership if it bought 190k more shares (£50k at 26p). Shares traded today already > 500k. Per the UK Takeover code an offer should be coming from SD in 30 days if they have passed the threshold

"When a person or group acquires interests in shares carrying 30% or more of the voting rights of a company, they must make a cash offer to all other shareholders at the highest price paid in the 12 months before the offer was announced"

I expect them to be standing at the door handing out marketing material on the way out