Member Info for ragnarlothbrok

I think the cinema will stay an important part of peoples lives with the effective use of technology like imax and 3D and the continued enhancement of the experience (food, drinks, comfort etc). Not sure about 2020 but for 2021 we have sequels to two of the top 10 highest grossing films of all time (Avatar 2 December 2020, Jurassic World 3, June 2021). Of course its entirely possible that people will become bored of continuous sequels.

Ill keep an eye out for the recording, they're always pretty informative.

Not sure if you saw the Everyman results the other day, they are going for a slightly different strategy with strong growth and might be one for Cineworld to be watchful of.

http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=EMAN&ArticleCode=ke1sdv72&ArticleHeadline=Preliminary_Results

Made my last top up at 109p this morning. I think this will gradually get back to 130p.

Despite Pt tanking 2% the current basket of $1300 is $20 off the record high since I've been tracking it (January 2014). In ZAR terms its setting new highs every day, 5 years ago it was 12500 and today it's a touch under 19000. Nicely timed step change to coincide with the increase in production.

At today's prices our PGM revenue split is Pt/Pd/Rh 40%/29%/31%.

In 2014 it was 73%/16%/11%

Undervalued indeed. Could be more to come, you can easily sell large chunks at 26.50 which indicates interest is very strong. Next stop 30p?

We are now a touch below a $100m MCap company with net cash of $23m and liquid assets of $30m. My EBITDA expectation for 2019 is $37m. Q3 will be a sensational quarter if they deliver 20koz production with the recent basket movement. I figure that they knew January would be a good month and that Feb was on track by the time of the results release in mid Feb so hopefully nothing happens in March and we smash some more records.

I guess it would be good if they did some occasional interviews or something to get some questions answers, but we can see how far the constant interviews gets them at JLP. SLP hasn't let us down yet I'm happy to trust them and let them get on with it.

Hey londoner, good to see the SP react positively to results, it's always difficult to tell what will happen. My first impressions from this result:

- quarterly dividends, with a clear dividend policy to be maintained;
- growth story for 2019, pretty enticing slate this year, increasing screens by 184 (2018: 108), refurbishing to support higher ticket prices and adding bars to increase drink sales;
- Leverage a little lower than I was expecting and trending towards 3x EBITDA over next 18 months. The reduction in debt will support much lower interest payments which will support substantial dividend growth over the next 3 years. I believe that in 3 years the dividend will be 50% higher than 2018;
- We are not far off the FTSE100!

Will ready the results in full tonight to see if there is anything interesting hidden in the fine print.

I'm back in the black now and looking forward to my 10%+ divi yield for years to come.

200k shares purchased by various directors in the last few days. Always a good sign.

SP looks to be bouncing back hard. Early days yet but looks like one of those opportunities created by a horde of sellers that completely disregards fundamentals in the race for the door.

200k shares purchased by various directors in the last few days. Always a good sign.

SP looks to be bouncing back hard. Early days yet but looks like one of those opportunities created by a horde of sellers that completely disregards fundamentals in the race for the door.

200k shares purchased by various directors in the last few days. Always a good sign.

SP looks to be bouncing back hard. Early days yet but looks like one of those opportunities created by a horde of sellers that completely disregards fundamentals in the race for the door.

Hey Truro! When I say 'getting there' I mean the steady upward momentum in the SP which we saw last year. I take your point however, there has been a lot of progress recently:

- We should be hearing confirmation shortly about gaining access to the US market (very exciting to be rolling out the business model across new territories);
- Granted a settlement account by the Bank of England allowing participation in the faster payments scheme (only the 4th non bank to be allowed to participate) affirming the quality of the platform and controls;
- Supply chain rationalisation ahead of schedule which will support margin expansion.

The SP seemed to react badly to the January trading statement but looking back at it now with the exception of the obligatory reference to the Brexit-induced macro headwinds I can't really see much wrong with it. Ian seemed extremely upbeat on the recent call ('surprisingly good' trading!) and the pound recovery should be helping things.

We seem to be back on track, nice rise today so far good to see the SP back over £1.

ATB

Thanks for sharing jsmith. The article confirms all our suspicions. I have also observed the low double digit P/E in the next couple of years and I've been accumulating recently along with Crystal Amber. It will take some time but we will get there.

Some very bullish forecasts out there. It could get very interesting...

https://etfdailynews.com/2019/03/11/bank-of-america-says-palladium-will-rally-33-in-2019/

If the Rhodium bubble of 2008 was to be replicated then the peak of $10,000/oz would be achieved around 2 years from now, with enormous implications for the basket of SA PGM producers

https://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_charts/yearly_graphs.cgi

Fall seems overdone. The market first started getting nervous about some additional working capital requirements meaning no dividend growth and an increase in net debt. Then the loss of a low margin contract could indicate further contracts being lost in the future.

I've held a small amount of these for some time and know the company reasonably well so bought a few more today at 88p with an average entry of 105p. Despite the increase in debt the company has low gearing (20%) and net debt to EBITDA of <1 and has been very conservatively managed over the last 5 years with consistent dividend growth.

The valuation currently seems pretty reasonable, with an NPAT £38m on equity of around £160m we have a ROE of ~25%. CF is weak right now given the increase in working capital but my hunch is that this will unwind. Consensus dividend yield seems unrealistic now but even after all the reduction should be giving a sustainable yield of +10%.

They have a pipeline of opportunities and some decent sized director buys by the chair, CEO and PDA of CFO today gives me some assurance that management are confident in the long term future of the company. The SP could fall further in the ST as no doubt some holders are keen to liquidate but as a longer term buy I think this is a good bet.

Absolutely flying. Pushing basket up to nearly $1300 and over 18000 ZAR.

Still a long way to go to hit the peak of the last rhodium bubble (~$10000/oz)

I think your payout profile is much more likely for ordinary dividends... My $37m over 3 years was best case scenario based on current prices assuming they payout everything over $20m.

I believe the old policy was created just before Stuart came on board, after his experience at Aquarius he seems terrified of any kind of financial stress and thus seems extremely financially conservative, and will want to retain a very large cash balance. Management will find a reason to keep that cash balance nice and fat, we all know this.

However, based on current prices and the forecast provided by management in the most recent presentation, if they assume your profile they are only paying out a low proportion of FCF, meaning that net cash will be $58m by the end of 2021 (according to my forecast). It's a good problem to have and means the chance of a special dividend on top will be highly likely.

Now that it isn't really helpful for us investors trying to work out what our yield will be. The previous dividend policy from 2014 is more specific and could be used as a guide (below page 12). Back then SLP was producing 40koz and wanted to keep a minimum cash balance of $8m to cover for potential adverse pipeline adjustments.

So now given the near doubling in production and the obvious anxiety of the board regarding Pt prices, I would expect a minimum cash balance of $20m. Based on current prices I am forecasting FCF and closing cash to be:

2019: 10/24
2020: 20/35
2021: 28/57

My conclusion is that by 2021 we will may have received $37m in dividends, which is a 40% yield over 3 years. This is based on today's basket and SP, both at a many year high. I expect the board to gradually increase the dividend over these 3 years to slowly build a history of sustainable dividends, with the potential for special dividends depending on prices, (similar to Polymetal).

https://www.sylvaniaplatinum.com/im/files/documents/Presentation%20Aug%202014.pdf

Shareminator...It doesn't look like we have a dividend 'policy' as such. This is what they have published:

http://www.sylvaniaplatinum.com/cg/files/dividend-policy-18022019.pdf

They should have just used the following extract from the policy and left it at that

"The Board... rather than any formulaic approach, will recommend distribution of returns to reflect the Company’s position and outlook".

Saying that management have promised another record year of production despite moderating expectations. By the time of the announcement they would have had 2 months in the bag already so I'm reasonably comfortable it wont be far off meaning a second half performance of around 40koz.

Despite the recent rise in the SP, given the huge jump in prices there hasn't even been much of a rerating, I still see a FCF yield of +25% in 2020. And my model is telling me we could hit EBITDA of $20m in H2!!

We are entering into a news drought, the SP has straight lined it from 20p and someone offloaded 2 large tranches today. Not surprising. We could see a retrace back to 22-23p based on past experience.