Member Info for ragnarlothbrok

4 of the company's resolutions received around 50% opposing vote at the AGM. Thats huge, not surprising the remuneration policy was on the end of this. That is a strong statement of dissatisfaction. I didn't attend, I had other priorities

gkb thanks for posting, the NYMEX/ETF holdings chart and NYMEX net speculator positions are brilliant and explain a lot. I would love to get my hands on the source data for those charts on a more regular basis

The basket they quote is gross and differs widely to net realised. I always quote market price and base my calculations from that. My revenue forecast is (assuming 20k 4E production)

4E PGM Gross = $22.5m (Q2 basket $1125/ 4Eoz)
By products = $1.7m (same as last quarter)
Price adj = $2.7m (A bit of a guess based on monthly prices)
Gross 6E Revenue = $26.9m
Tolling = ($6.0m) (20000/oz x 300/oz)
Net revenue = $20.9m

I get $300/oz smelting/refining by comparing the market price to net realised prices going back to Q415. Its normally around 25% of revenue (+/- 5%).

My EBITDA forecast is $10m and cash of $20 after a $3.5m cash payment so we are pretty much in line there and with all other expectations. A record for almost all metrics!!

Nice top up L7!

Palladium hit a record closing high yesterday. The basket is around $1130/oz, the highest its been since January 2015.

Should see some flow on impact to Pt as well, the spread over Pt is now $330.

https://www.moneyweb.co.za/news-fast-news/palladium-soars-to-record-on-tight-supply-bets-on-china-demand/

Also important to keep in mind that the sector is becoming more competitive as pretenders continue to appear trying to take a slice of the banks revenue. When the next results come out, in January I think, transaction growth of 20-25% will go along way to reassure the market of the growth prospects of this business.

Yes you're right thanks for the correction, trying to unpick these things while doing a day job. Noble effort but I don't think you can do an pro-rata calculation given the impact of release dates on monthly phasing. I'm loathe to use GBp forecasts without knowing the rate used. Based on the GBp v USD consensus the assumed rate is 1.307.

But my point exactly about how difficult it is to unpick the performance. In this market any reason will do for a sell off, and there is a 4.44% short across 5 hedge funds which has been creeping up this year and which they probably increased today.

Looks like the US doesn't like it, it was almost back up to only down 3% before the US open but now close to -8%. Getting ugly out there!!

A large number of companies all over the markets, AIM and FTSE, are getting shredded, regardless of quality. There is no doubt in my that funds are abandoning AIM en masse in anticipation of an extended period of volatility or maybe a bear market.

For a while Blackrock was mopping up loose shares which was holding up the price but they seem to have stopped. There is also a huge overhang from some large holders sitting on some huge paper profits with the last announcement showing a reduction in their holding, which is no doubt making investors nervous.

I have decided to preserve capital and reduced today to a small core holding, its a good company and longer term prospects are sound but the selling is just too persistent. When the bounce comes I'll be ready but for now I'm mostly on the sidelines.

Between the switch to $US and the acquisition of Regal part way through the year leading to a host of proforma and constant currency results I'm finding it difficult to interpret these latest set of results versus expectations but here are my summary points:

Proforma admissions growth has accelerated from 1.1% in May to 4.9% at H1 and 5.9%

Constant currency proforma revenue growth has accelerated from 6.7% to 10.8% and 11.6%

In general non-US is still weak but has improved in the second half reflecting some big releases. These might be tough comparatives for next year.

The US continues to exhibit impressive growth rates and results so far have justified the acquisition.

L7 have you seen full year 2017 proforma revenue (Cine+Regal). Applying the 11.6% revenue to this number will give a view of 2018 full year revenue. Current consensus is $4.1m.

When management say 'in line with OUR current expectations' this always makes me nervous and implies that management and market expectations are different.

For some its all about the headlines

(Reuters) - Cinema operator Cineworld Group Plc lacklustre performance in Britain and Ireland and an unchanged outlook for 2018 overshadowed an increase in revenue so far this year, sending its shares down more than 6 percent on Thursday..."For this year, these factors (strong U.S. and Regal) outweigh the impact of the UK and mainland Europe trading slightly behind as well as a rising cost of debt," Peel Hunt analysts said and held their forecasts.

Shares of the Chiswick, London-based company were down 4 percent at 285 pence by 0851 GMT after touching a low of 276.8 pence earlier and were the third-biggest losers on the FTSE Midcap Index <.FTMC>.

There does seem to be an inverse relationship between Pt and Pd/Rh at the moment. And until now Pt seems to be supported by the cost of production at $800/oz. Either way the basket is strong for SLP when production is at its highest.

Amplats did a recent presentation on the potential role of PGMs in fuel cells. There is some interesting science involved and I like that fuel cells can support much larger vehicles requiring more power and range than battery EVs, trains, lorries and even boats!

https://www.angloamericanplatinum.com/~/media/Files/A/Anglo-American-Platinum/presentations-and-speeches/demand-for-pgms-china-roadshow.pdf

Thanks for sharing your analysis Londoner7. I have read the competitors releases before and had similar challenges with the read across.

The trading update should be strong, though expecting more bad news from the UK and RoW.

Hey Shareminator, immense volatility in Pd, Rh looking to tick back up and I still can't find any reason why Pt is rising apart from being a technical correction off 10 year lows and some niggling concerns about Pd substitution.

Here's some recent news:

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/metals/110218-rhodium-slips-on-more-liquidation-lower-offers

https://www.metalsdaily.com/link/286636/heraeus-platinum-oversupply-set-to-hoist-rhodium-price.htm

Stockable, I don't recall the repayment profile of the Elikhulu project finance facility but I believe the lenders waived the normal net debt/EBITDA covenant until December 2019. At this point it is required to be lower than 2.5x EBITDA.

Yes if everything runs according to plan and gold/ZAR hold where they are cash flow will not be an issue but things have not gone according to plan for several years now.

Petra is an example of a company that has consistently needed to move its debt covenant goal posts because of issues with its expansion projects and consequently been burdened with huge interest payments. We are not anywhere near that level of gearing but it pays to be cautious and I will be happier when we see the grades and ounces applied against the debt figure.

ODonnell, personally I'm looking for news about the rate of debt reduction. This is all I need to know. It will indicate:

the operations are generating cash,
demonstrate Elikhulu costs are low as expected,
verify that the current capex investment cycle has ended,
remove any debt around the need for an additional short term equity injection;
hint that the dividend will be reinstated next year,
all while falling well within next years debt covenant tests.

The latest operational update is reassuring that Elikhulu and Barberton operations and the full year targets continue to be derisked but I am more interested in cash flow, this is one of the few measures that can't be manipulated. I fear that the net debt number has been omitted in recent communications as right now it is at its peak.

Small feature in the IC again this week as part of the bargain shares portfolio. I don't know if he even read the Q1 results because he doesn't mention it and the cash number referred to is still the 13.9m from June rather than the 17.7m from September. He strips out the cash number to adjust the P/E, I believe this is incorrect as this cash is marked for capex, but whatever, its still pretty low.

Basket looking good, Pt at a 4 month high and seems to be in some kind of unexpected upwards moving line

The market didn't seem to notice that we went ex-divi here yesterday so we got a 10.9 dividend for free. That alone represents a 5% yield.

The consequence of treating your suppliers badly.

I hope your new sofa works out for QE.

Thanks L7. There have been some concerns about CINEs exposure to floating rate interest payments in a rising rate environment recently but its good to hear that underlying US performance is still very strong