Member Info for ragnarlothbrok

And Pt pushing 860. Rh appears to be sliding

I thought the lack of SP action yesterday was a dirty trick. But today we get a treat with Pt almost at $850! Is a breakout happening?

My guess is they gave everything they had in Q418 to scrape in to the bottom of guidance and wouldn't be able to match it in Q119. December will be the big one, seasonally it has the highest production, I'm assuming from a greater proportion of fresh arisings, and the ZAR and prices have both moved in SLPs favour since Q1.

Good to see admin costs low at $450k/qtr, down 16%. Salaries and overheads well in control. Rare for AIM, no free/ cheap director options, just getting on with it.

Hey Shareminator, going trick or treating tonight?

Everything appears to be on track. Despite operations not running at optimum they still churned out 19koz at a good recovery level. I also am expecting a bigger Q2 based on seasonality and the bullish commentary which massively de-risks the upside of the production guidance.

The rand is taking some punishment, SDO costs should be below $500oz.

Working capital is again building, its currently at 27m.

How many businesses have a 22% NPAT margin?

Looking forward to the dividend policy after the AGM that should make the future much clearer.

Here is some food for thought: Current dividend of $1.3m is an annual yield of 2%. $5.2m is 8%. $10.4m is 16%. Expected 2019/2020 FCF is $8.5m/$16.5m.

EBITDA margin 40% and cash $17.7m. Crushing the costs at $531/oz. All in costs not far behind.

Assuming that production improves this quarter after having addressed the production efficiencies, Q2 should be huge. 1 month in and management seem confident.

The closing price was again dictated by the UT of £111. Based on the last hour of trade I'm expecting this to correct to around 8.50 on open.

The price of gold fell, ZAR shot up, most gold miners were down today, some around 3%. These factors are exacerbated by PAF small free float and the large number of small value automated trades. Trading patterns continue to confound. The range between the high and low buy was close to 10%. Only about £50k traded today, not much to take away under such illiquid conditions..

I picked up a few more at 8.1648, that's my trade at 1010 this morning. I think 8p is still good value and trying to take advantage of these intraday swings to patiently build in anticipation of dividends next year.

If its any consolation we are in a nice rising channel since the March low of 6.70 despite a few speed bumps on the way.

Eish I usually can't be bothered going to AGMs but this one is just around the corner so I'll probably go

The retailers have been going down like tenpins this year. Also made the Guardian, Telegraph and Mail which is unusual for a (now) sub £100m Mcap). Guess they're bored of Debenhams, Superdry etc etc

I dipped my toe, couldn't resist.

242 page doorstop document with a funny sprocket theme. If anyone has managed to read and has some concise insight to share please do so.

The remco section is interesting. Management have forfeited the right to any bonuses for 2018 which is the right thing to do. Remco has also revisited the long term incentive plan

I see that us PIs only make up 4.7% of shares held.

Apart from that its a lot of old news sprinkled with some large negative numbers.

http://www.panafricanresources.com/investors/financial-reports/

Mulder are you attending?

Less than £90k traded causes the SP to move by 7%. 63% held by the top 10 shareholders may have something to with it.

I think you could be right. We all know that one profit warning can just be the start

A near 50% SP fall for a 13% reduction in revenue and 31% reduction in PBT at the low point. Hard to tell what market expectations were exactly given the limited coverage but going from latest Hardman report.

If they are committed to the progressive dividend as they say this could be a 5% yield growing at 10%+. Hopefully they have given the worst case scenario at £8.5m.

I have held in the past here but am considering a reentry point. Just need to be mindful of a Footasylum-type fall. In this market punishment is severe and could last many days.

Its in freefall atm so watching closely for now and keeping an eye out for some insider buys

Hey Wuffle, An increase in the Pt price no doubt would increase SLP profitability. But this has become less relevant given the relative basket prices. Today Pt contributes 48% of revenue despite 63% of production. At times in 2016 it contributed 75% of revenue.

The changing perception to diesel, NOx emissions and electrification is making the relative prices difficult to predict.. Auto makers all switched to palladium when it was trading at a $1000/oz discount last decade. I believe we need a sustained period of at least $400/oz spread between Pt and Pd to make producers consider switching between the two. But this means that a rising Pd price may drag up Pt

I think we will all be relieved to see the first production update from Elikhulu

Check out HUM for some unforeseen circumstances...

Hi Stockable, unfortunately for Cobus he was delivered a real hospital pass from Jan Nelson who left not longer after the Evander acquisition was concluded at a gold price of $1700+.

Since then by pursuing a strategy of low grade, low cost ounces he has transformed the company. The Evander purchase caused unbelievable value destruction but he did very well to close the shafts with relatively minimal industrial action.

I agree on the whole he has done well, all that remains is the ramp of Elikhulu and the cash starting to roll in.

The state of the South African economy, and in particular power supply, is always a concern and it feels like at any moment the lights may go out. This explains the huge valuation discount between SA and Canadian, US and Australian miners and why PAF trades on a forward P/E of 4. The only thing the market respects from the region is cash flow.

is tanking, again.

From Reuters:

South African mini-budget had been delivered, and now it remains to be seen what the rating agencies will make of it. The rand fell nearly 1 percent – revenue shortfalls are predicted for three years and this year's growth estimate was slashed to 0.7 percent from 1.5 percent. The deficit estimate for 2018/2019 fiscal year was widened to 4 percent of GDP from 3.6 percent and to 4.2 percent over the next two years. What the budget does deliver is a stark reminder that all is not well with the South African economy. Despite a new president and a new finance minister, the growth outlook remains uncertain. USD/ZAR not a runaway market after the budget – the ZAR continues to show resilience – but any downside forecasts for USD/ZAR may well be reined in a little. Short-term USD/ZAR looks like 14.00 to 15.00 with no change from Moody's (review date not yet known) to keep bear pressure alive.

ODonnell, you'll drive yourself made if you worry about every intraday movement. Relax... the trading bots and the MMs are just playing their little games.

Last month the price was 22p+ with the basket at 1030, plenty of volume to sell into yet everyone was buying. Now the basket is 1110 and sellers are desperate to get out at 17.50, selling into low volumes. How sentiment can change.

I think we may see 17p breached again, the whiff of panic is returning.

Buyback territory soon?

And the murky world of OTC markets means that it gets almost no press and no one knows what the volumes or inventories are.

Car producers digging themselves in a hole by reducing diesel production without adequate supplies of Pd.

PGMs appear to be behaving like precious metals.

Ferrochrome prices seem to be holding up ok but China is looking a little wobbly.

Q1 will be a very good quarter but if prices stay where they are Q2 will be epic. Lets hope no surprises and its been business as usual down on the dumps.

Subject to approval by the board on 23 November we will see the first of many dividend payments hitting our bank accounts on the 30 November