Member Info for ragnarlothbrok

Anglo American CEO Mark Cutifani has come out today saying that the rise in Pd has created a bubble but that prices are likely to remain high and that over time Pt will come 'roaring' back. Its in the interests of the entire PGM industry for this scenario to play out.

Pd down +5% but looks to be a healthy retrace in the upward trend.

SA load shedding, where SA is losing some 20% of daily power requirements, cant be positive for the power intensive smelting and refining industry. If this persists I think there will definitely be some upside for Pt. I think the market has been complacent about the risks to SA supply.

ETF holdings have been increasing, short positions reducing and given the current market situation these factors could all combine to reduce that large anticipated Pt surplus.

I'n not convinced Pd is finished yet either.

On the currency front emerging market currencies are looking very shaky : TRY, RUB, ZAR,MXN all getting caned. ZAR is looking VERY weak. ZAR cost basket still at record highs.

Don't you think SD has its hands full with Deb right now? And the GOAL clusterf*** ?

No I don't think so. They converted 7.5m warrants into shares. However given they havent notified of an increase they must have sold an equivalent amount in the open market.

If they acquired 7.5m shares for £2m (27p/share) and sold them at 100p then that is a very tidy profit. Thus far this has been a very successful investment for Crystal Amber!

balance is cyclical. What was reported at January is the peak. The average balance is much lower but still higher than the current SP

James their interest has been previously disclosed. They have been diluted as a result of the conversion of warrants into new shares by Crystal Amber. This could explain the recent SP movement with CA selling shares equivalent to those converted from warrants on the open market (Given they havent announced an increase).

https://www.marketscreener.com/FAIRFX-GROUP-PLC-17109493/company/

Noel, fair point. What I should have said is why cant they give us some info on the Solarwinds progress? I understand there would have been no revenue impact in Q3 but the update was released almost at the end of Q4.

I attended an investor presentation last year where Mike Read said Q4 would be active for developing the Solarwinds opportunity e.g. meeting with prospective new clients. Given that it is such a big part of their growth plans and it was the reason for a a large capital raising, I just thought it would have got a mention.

Another well received contribution from Simon Thomson yesterday

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/comment/2019/03/25/bargain-shares-on-a-tear/

Now up to almost 30%. Will Mike put us out of our misery?

Dibs thats exactly what I hope. Last year they were pumping out a RNS whenever they won some contracts but this year almost nothing. This implies they either aren't winning contracts or they just aren't announcing them now they are in a more comfortable financial position. The 'trading update' in the RNS seemed reasonably bullish so I'm hoping its the latter.

One thing that really annoyed me last year was the way that were investing in opex at a much greater rate than revenue/GM. Hopefully with Unicorn/Amati/Miton on board they are under more pressure to be disciplined with their investment decisions this year.

This one not working for me either, 40% down now, even after the recent 20% rise.

There has certainly been a pick up in volume lately, of that there is no doubt. Perhaps it has something to do with the hype around Pd and Rh at the moment and the resulting 13% increase in the monthly basket so far, the biggest one month increase for many many years.

Whether the volume portends something more interesting we will see. As the little PI we are always the last to find out and so need the longest time horizon of them all.

Have a good weekend.

FK1 what is a t-fish? I don't follow? is this something to do with TW?

What a bunch of amateurs! Another weak RNS. Who drops a trading update into a change of adviser RNS? And a weak, non-committal one like that. Like you said FK1, what about Solar Winds?!

I unloaded most of my shares in this company some time ago but still have a few and am embarrassed to still be a holder here. This company serves as a reminder for me to do better research in the future and invest with more professional management teams.

Prove me wrong Mike Read.

Chaz its a bit small to be shorted isn't it? The cost of shorting on a stock this small held so tightly would be fairly prohibitive. I think its just profit taking. YTD the SP has shot up 80% and the market is down considerably today. There are a lot of long holding, faithful institutions on the register which have probably been waiting for a liquidity event like the recent increase in volume.

I have also recently taken a considerable amount off the table and will be looking to re add these into an ISA soon, reflecting my belief that this will be a 10%+ dividend yielder in the near future.

Our largest shareholder, Africa Asia Capital, is a Samancor subsidiary which has been a shareholder since 2010. Why would they make a bid now? I think they have their hands full with their chrome operations and don't think they have ever been interested in PGMs. I would think that they are more likely to be sellers than buyers.

I personally can't really see any foreign potential buyers of the business here given the investment climate in SA right now. SA PGM potential trade buyers all have their hands full rationalising their asset bases and there are very few potential synergies that any of them could have with any of the SDOs.

Chaz who do you think would the most likely buyer?

Hey Visitor, from a SLP perspective yes this is great!

Terrifying in the potential for how high Pd can go. Add very low ETF holdings to all the other elements supporting this trend which we are familiar with: Russian supply restrictions, the perpetual spectre of SA strikes, Eskom load shedding (reduction of 20% in available power I hear) and the petrol/diesel shift.

This organisation is funded by the platinum producers so may be regarded as a bit of cheerleading and not sure how independent it is. But they always have some interesting market information and manage to add an optimistic slant to the releases (despite the constant negatives in the Pt market).

Interesting that in the March Pt perspectives release they say that the platinum surplus of 2019 is a one-off due to inventory release. I think this was somehow linked to the Impala refinery restart processing surplus metal.

The palladium ETF holdings chart is fascinating, and a little terrifying.

https://www.platinuminvestment.com/files/473200/WPIC_Platinum_Perspectives_March_2019.pdf

Oh yes, and rhodium looks to be up today. Again. Even Pt being playing nice lately with the constant spectre of SA strikes and Eskom load shedding 20% of capacity.

Keeping us all on our toes I trust.

Not all those which say they are buys are really buys. For example, the 2 trades around 13:56:50 on 19/3/19 for around 150k are both done at lower prices than previous buys but at a higher volume. 101/105 was not the true spread at this time, it was 103/105 (I checked) which meant the trade was done at the midpoint.

Over the last few months shares have been changing hands amongst the larger holders. Blackrock and Crystal Amber adding but some of the others reducing. My guess is that this is still happening

No doubt the SP wont reach 180p any time soon. Profits will be 8.7% lower. Does this warrant a 50% fall in the SP? I personally think not.

A recovery to even 20% below before the announcement would be over 130p. A nice 40% gain for those who chose to buy on the dip.

There is no impact on 2019 working capital versus expectations as nothing has changed. 2020 working capital will now be better than 2020 expectations, which I have assumed will positively impact net debt.

Strange trading happening today but looks like 30p has been paid. Remarkable YTD rise of 79%. It's great to see SLP finally achieving it potential. Well done all.

So we've all been banging on about this stock being undervalued over the last couple of years. When is it no longer undervalued? Is the market starting to factor further large price increases in Rh and/or Pd?

At 30p the FCF yield at current prices for 2020 is still around 20%, which could comfortably support a 10% dividend yield at a 50% payout ratio.

Shouldn't be any surprises here given company has flagged revenue to be in line with consensus, and EBITDA in excess of expectations, indicating an improvement in margins. The recent trading update seems very upbeat regarding the MZ integration. Good to hear that they have won a big contract in Australia which further validates the business model and the potential for further geographic expansion.

Given the aggressive opening of new offices in Feb (Chicago, Dallas, Los Angeles, Atlanta and Madrid) my immediate thought was that perhaps there would be a capital raising, however my hope is that future growth can now be funded through cash generation and debt, which really was a key driver of the MZ acquisition. I think they may also have a bit of headroom on the RCF.

The outlook for 2019 will be key. With an expectation of a near doubling in EBITDA (from the full year impact of MZ and further organic growth) supporting a lofty valuation, there is never much room for error. They should have a good idea after 2.5 months how things look.