Member Info for Quiggers52

Since these shares do not exist yet (as they have not been admitted onto the market) what you have done by the sounds of it is sell [100] of your existing shares and make an application to purchase [100] under the Offer.

When the "new" shares land on the market on June 26 my guess is they will open at the offer price.

An opportunity to short for some.

Long term, we will see where things land in 6 months. AET have set expectations. They now need to deliver.

You might buy today at 67 but you cannot sell tomorrow for 74. If that is what you were thinking, that is arbitrage, risk free. Nowadays, that does not happen.

By all means hold for the long term sure

Acadian looking a bit like lemons now after their buying spree in the low to mid 80s.

That news is largely built in.

You assume maximum efficiency in execution. I hope of course that you are right.

My fear is once these shares are placed on the open market, many will sell and this drops to placing offer price.

Arbitrage would be nice but it seldom is a reality.

I am already maxed to the hilt so was looking to exit on a 4-bagger so is different entirely from somebody coming in.

Will pass. As a LTH

Dont feel comfortable risking a further 26k parity stock to make a 14k reward profit if this hits £1. The maths does not work.

Will Acadian sell down now their gutsy bet is a losing one?

ATH of 89p looks a long way off BUT with Olive at 100 for the foreseeable future, what is not to like?!

-gla-

Divi.

cada dia y dobles en domingos

There were loads of caveats to the numbers, that number was just one of the "cases". Think I also said a base case itro of 150.

The EV was not a statistical model, just one way of pricing the "option". You are of course right for a full valuation then other factors come into the equation.

As the option decays then the walk down will continue.

Hmmm. One option (no pun intended) is to step back and consider a different question before you try to answer that one which is what is the probability of a deal going through? If it is (say) 25%, then consider what would happen to the current 77p share price if "no deal"? Let`s say you think it might fall to 60p. Those two variables will give you your expected value (target price).

Based on these assumptions, the current market price of 77p implies a deal value of 128p. If you believe the potential offer is significantly lower than that, you should exit now. (And vice versa of course.)

* So these RNSs mean a takeover?*

No. They are no more that RNSs compliant with certain disclosure rules during a defined time period and during which a take over/merger/acquisition is on the table . They will stop when AET inform the market that it is no longer on the table or has been accepted and a deal reached.

Occam`s Razor.

All metals down.

Stochastic has this oversold.

Ranging around $2000 which is where it needs to be to maintain a 130p - 150p fair value.

Ordinary shares.

Matthey 4E basket - why not reflect reality when Au is nil and call it 3E - is consistently on average, 20% under reported basket.

Is the Acadian Portfolio Manager smokin` somethin`?

Looking a bit like lemons here selling £10,659 worth at a loss? Did they think the Offer Period expired last Tuesday? Looks like it.

Heavy buying in the lead-up at inflated price 80+ and now start to sell a week later at 75?

Makes as much sense as a chocolate teapot.

Have AET confirmed 7 liftings per annum? The model assumes four: Jan. April. July. Sept. Assumed the additional barrels just get added to existing liftings, not net new liftings? In any event at 80p, much of these is already baked into the SP? The strategic review is the key for me and it works to my mind like an option: it decays over time.

ASSUMPTION: Bid offer: 150p. SP moves from 80p to 150p (88% upside). No bid: SP moves from 80p to 60p (25% downside)

DOWNSIDE SCENARIO: AET drifts back to 60p. Loss from 80p = – (25%)

UPSIDE SCENARIOS

Three (there are more but not tested) plausible bid outcomes:

Bid Price Upside from 80p

120p +50%

135p +69%

150p +88%

EXPECTED VALUE (EV)

Case A: Conservative probability (20%)

Bid EV

120p (20% × 50%) – (80% × 25%) = – (10%)

135p (20% × 69%) – (80% × 25%) = – (3%)

150p (20% × 88%) – (80% × 25%) = + (3%)

At 20%, only a high price bid makes holding worthwhile

Case B: Central probability (25%)

Bid EV

120p –1%

135p +6%

150p +11%

At 25%, holding is clearly rational unless you think bids top out nearer 120p.

Case C: Optimistic but plausible (30%)

Bid EV

120p +5%

135p +13%

150p +19%

At 30%, holding is strongly EV positive

FULLY RECONCILED BIG PICTURE:

• Fundamentals alone → 70–85p fair

• Oil at $100 (not locked in) → marginal near term help

• Strategic review → a real but decaying option

• Successful bid at ~150p → plausible, not fantasy

• Probability required to justify holding → ~23–25%

The logic holds if and only if:

• a bid is ≥25% likely, and

• a credible bid lands ≥135–150p, not 115–120p, and

• willing to re evaluate on a time basis, not wait indefinitely

In that framework, holding now is rational, blindly holding forever is not

HOLD WHILE:

• strategic review is active

• no negative operational shock

• price does not overshoot materially beyond 85–90p without news

REASSESS IF:

• No strategic update by early summer

• Share price rallies on oil alone (not corporate news)

EXIT IF:

• Review quietly fades and price is still pricing in upside

• Or upside compresses without new catalysts

If we amend to 125p bid at 20% probability and no bid = SP drifts to 55p, the picture changes: 56% payoff if bid occurs. -31% if no bid. The upshot is to hold, purely on EV grounds, requires a 35% to 40% probability of a 125 bid. That is a sobering thought!

10% drop with Olive dropping 10%.

Those who did not sell will either be jumping for joy or crying into their soup this time next Tuesday....

If the latter, at least I can take comfort in knowing Acadian just spent 680 grand in the last 4 weeks at an average price of 83 pence.

Who dares wins.

(Until they don`t lol)

-gla-

Where you been!!!!??? I thought you like DONMAC had scarpered Rift

Agreed. It is all a sham buying time to rearm and restock. There is no desire for a real "deal" IMHO. The "Iran will never have a nuclear weapon" (even though Israel and the USA have them!!?? (talk about utter hypocrisy on full view) is a pretext. There is ALWAYS a pretext. Wittkoff and Kushner do not have a scooby about nuclear enrichment grades and the wealth of technical understanding that goes along with it nor does Vance, a showman, nothing more. They represent a clown show. Last "negotiations" there were no technical people in the room lol and these so-called "sophisticated" parties cannot even agree whether Lebanon is part of the ceasefire or not! I mean how fricking amateur is that. It is destined to failure and already has started to crumble.

The wild swings demonstrate Mr. Market clinging onto hope desperately because what else can he do?

Patience is a virtue and virtue is a grace and a Grace is a little girl who doesn`t wash her face

Where are the LTHs here: eg. Donmac and East obvs exit, chasing their penny share millionaire dreams whilst missing out on this windfall

Go figure!

-gla-

More buying today

Total now: £268,811.89

Do Acadian know something we do not ...?

-gla-

More Acadian buys - £138k .

That is conviction.

-gla-