Member Info for Quiggers52

Hooray!

Rose on oil risks (Iran) and now the good news RNS.

And I set my limit sell at 44p lol on my trading account , still 10.9 % on holding of 47-days I should be happy with, because in this trading game "hogs get slaughtered"

Buy and hold account wants to see this back in the upper 50s!

That depends upon how long this Iran crisis lasts I suspect.

Time will tell

gla

479p that is so funny. sws with an algo spitting out dcf valuations on fictive growth rates. it is obvs poppy-****.

aet is my biggest holding (by far) but i do not need creative fiction like that to incentivise me to buy/sell/hold.

ignore that. look at the quality of the management team. look at oil prices slumping and consider loading up whilst you have the chance to do so. because when mean reversion kicks in, and it always does - except in circumstances of a disruptor in the market (and with oil, there isn`t one) - today`s risk (buying now) becomes tomorrow`s (lost) opportunity (not buying now). the problem is this approach takes time, patience, and a very strong stomach!

Thanks for the effort that went into that :)

Plainly 700p is bonkers territory. In fact, DCF valuation is bonkers. Does anybody use it outside of merchant banks to increase their fees or business school profs? It is useless IMHO. It works by inventing or predicting a growth rate for say the next 5 years. As if that is not bad enough all of those cash flows need to be discounted back to NPV by applying a discount rate: the cost of capital, measured by the cost of equity and the cost of debt. The latter is easy to work out. The former is obtained by dint of the CAPM. This capital asset pricing model works great in theory but is "probably invalid" in practice. That is not me saying that, it is Profs Fama and French : " , the CAPM’s empirical problems probably invalidate its use in applications " In other words great in theory not so great in practice. According to Stern Business School, it is right only 7% of the time; less than 1 in 10. Crap in other words.

I`ll stick to using pricing - a multiple. Much cleaner.

143p derived from a multiple of 8x earnings and SHOUT of 260m. Earnings forecast of "only" $63m might be conservative..?

So the current PE is 18.

18 to 8 is quite a drop in the multiple which means as SLP gets richer, its price relative to its earnings gets considerably cheaper.

Funny that

FRES is 73, obvs a far bigger concern. Nonetheless, 8 is hardly extravagant. Let`s go with (say) 10. That puts the Target Price nearer 180p

On a similar multiple and upping the net to $75m then this is well over over two squid.

Next Q results ought to be interesting

47 days to wait

gla

I see the market has virtually ignored Trump`s rhetoric. Total nonsense. With Brent trading at $60 bbl, the stolen oil cannot be sold for a profit, it is loss-making (by $20 to $30 bbl). Brent needs to be at $80 minimum for his ill-gotten gains to be viable.

15% drop atow but that is the speculators taking profit after a silly splurge which was never sustainable and does not reflect the true market level. Hopefully all of this nonsense will calm down and they will move onto something else. The LTH here should be well satisfied when SLP reports its numbers.

Https://www.tradingview.com/x/pFcVvtsS/

wow....

If "commodity prices stay where they are" then it becomes pretty straightforward because the basket price can be defined. If we say that is $2,500 then you can work out the revenue by taking the production ounces. Putting aside the JV position that will give you a fairly tight earnings estimate. For arguments sake let`s say conservative $60m. You could them apply a multiple. Let`s say 8 x earnings. That is $480m. There are 260 m shares out so that is $1.84 or about 140p That is just one method.

Just some random walk/numbers...

Pt Jan‑2026 = $2,147 raises FY26 6E basket to $2,517/oz, lifting PGM realised revenue to $252m and PGM EBITDA to $153.9m.

Chromite JV (Q4‑only) adds $9.1m revenue / $3.8m EBITDA at $259/t (40% conc); pricing derived from $6.48/mtu.

Consolidated EBITDA ~$157.7m, Net profit ~$100.8m with 91.85% payability

gla

I agree T212 is a decent platform nice set up with good support too.

Free to trade if using limit pricing otherwise they make their fees in the spread which are not as competitive as say HL for anything over 0000s

In other words, if your order is (say) GBP/USD/EUR 2,000 then HL will give a better spread.

BUT HL are crap at paying divis, they hold it for ages, wheres T212 it is always there same or next day.

InteractiveBrokers is also excellent but not for beginners but their data/reports/ function is top. Huge amount of data available.

Nice to see CCL do well. A few months ago I almost sold. Intended to but my order never filled and then luck for me I did not set as good til cancel but day.

Then it dropped back fairly sharply so I forgot about it as held for 5 years. Bottom drawer time

Then this.

Happy days LTHs.

$23 opex assumes profit at oil at 50 40 or even 30 but that is not right this is not stay-in-business capex which is probably nearer mid 40s or even 50 so hedges are needed but only 6% into 2026 hence until oil recovers expect a long haul waiting game hard to stomach short term but no pain no gain. I see oil dropping to 50 by June taking out players with only the strong surviving into the next phase which will be recovery and it is then that this share will get loved again. Until then load up because my guess is in 2 years we will look back at AET @ 39 and say if only....

gla

IDK. The "deals going through" are not wholesale markets. So can make a case either way. As a MM, you need shares to sell right, so what do you do: 1) tree-shaking: keep dropping the price in the hope some holders will panic and sell to you; 2) if that does not work, you have no alternative but to slowly start to up the price, until you start to see movement and action. I do not see a MM ever being "short of stock" in the sense that a vendor needs stock to sell - as they will always be on the other end of the transaction (as the buyer). Like I say, this is not wholesale.

I`m seeing full year EBITDA of $150mn and net profit of $95m up from $89mn on account of the Pt. spike

How do others see FY looking?

gla

Not reported yet. Yea, that is a fair point.

I see we are starting to climb (finally) on strong Pt.

GLA

Scale? 14bn market cap (sterling) might have something to do with it.

Perceived as a safer bet perhaps despite their numbers not being comparable to SLP; e.g. they do not even possess a positive PE ratio!

Woo hoo :)

20% up wow !

ah but wait... with a 100% spread for a yea, 80% loss.

more like boo hoo :(

Pt spot nudging 1700 on Fed rate cut tomorrow...?

For AIM, quarterly updates are like the proverbial rocking horse **** . Not sure what else you are expecting; this is not some penny stock RNS bonanza fest populated by thrill-seekers expecting to be zillionaires off the back of no news.. leave that for the SYME`s of this World lol

Venezuela tensions spilling over?

Not moving markets much yet but we all know by the time to move in, it is typically too late.

Loaded up at 39s

GLA

Shocked that any sane person would take time to attend this AGM as to do so indicates a belief (however remote) that the impossible might somehow still be possible. This on a mere spes that an investment made at the high and the subsequent 98.4% loss that followed needs just shy of 6,000% gain from hereon just to break even. When will people learn to lose and let go and move on? Of course if the attendance was to summarily throw a custard pie into Zamboni`s mug then that would have made much more sense. Sadly, was not to be.