Member Info for Quiggers52

Stochastic

Volume

Oil futures

All point to a quick in/out win for 10% gain at 43.5p

Pt over 6% today late on ! Futures contract (3M) now at $1,704

Opex is not so important; it is stay-in-business capex which is more important and the market knows this.

At $60 bopd AET are not making a lot of profit and hence the current share price reflects that reality.

Hedging for 2026 is not a viable option either. That means the net profit is bound to drop significantly.

But long term, absent disasters or black swans descending, the oil price will likely drop to $50 by mid-late 2026 so this might go even lower yet. And when it does the brave will swoop. Because oil never stays low. Never. It is the obverse of what goes up must come back down.

The question is to hold or not to hold until then. Be prepared for lots of pain and long term heavy investment at these lows will pay dividends if not actual real ones. That won`t be for years yet, if at all.

GLA

2026: I note only 7% of 2026 production is hedged. On oil at $60, I get EPS of 6.5 cents derived from Prod of 2.17m; Rev of 130m; PAT of 14.3m with downtime at 15%. Conservative?

Interested to hear others thoughts

GLA

back of the *** packet and assuming steady state i put the numbers through my agent and he spat out fcf at $89mn (adding back dep expense) which is 37% of $240 mn which is the net prof margin for q1.

gives eps of 26p so divi around 10 pence being 12% return at today`s share price.

summat like that

gla.

Thanks for the upload.

In summary :

Platinum faces near-term headwinds as China removes its 13% VAT exemption on imports, likely dampening demand in the world’s largest consumer market after an initial pre-tax surge. However, structural supply deficits, tight market conditions, and platinum’s relative undervaluation versus gold underpin a strong long-term investment case. Liquidity improvements and growing recycling in China could further support market efficiency, mitigating some of the short-term demand risks.

[Thanks Agent]

Well done Clank

Not nice to see this falling back.

Goes without saying I am relieved I exited when I did.

GLA LTHs

Near backwardation: the Pt spot is only 0.32% lower than the 3 month futures contract which is a bullish shift as prior contango was deeper than this.

Hmmm... is it obvious?

Gold started to take off beginning of March 2024 rising about 94% since then.

Pt was still trading in a range since Jan 2021, and did not break out until June 2025 and has risen about 47% since then.

That`s a 15-month gap where Pt did nothing on account of gold rocketing.

Who knows. I certainly do not!

Edison`s approach to FCF calcs appears to be simplified EBITDA – capex – tax, without adjustments for D&A or Working Capital.

If we take reported Q1, extrapolate that to full year, when adjusted for D&A, WC, their FY26 and FY27 growth numbers are 35% and 46% respectively.

Thaba is not contributing that much to make those leaps.

PGMs in terms of Pt and Rh are already at multi year highs

And production is already at record levels.

And we are staring down the face of a bear market sentiment big time.

The market just does not trust the basket price to maintain these levels let alone account for multiple double digit growth.

The best card here is the divi. I use those payments to buy "free" BP stock and just push it to the Buy and Hold Account. I do not plan on exiting that for at least 8 years GW so bear market declines come and they go.

Meanwhile, the SLP divi keeps giving.

But if that ends, it is exit time for me. But from the words of Gladiator ..."not yet....not yet"

I hope this falls back to 40.

As long as Olive holds above 60 we are good. If she falls below then cause to be concerned. But if that happens then shale producers are screwed.

Well a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

You might be right, IAG might hit 500p. Then again it might not. It might fall back to 300p Nobody knows.

Also, the Share Buyback program completes this month. What happens when that huge prolonged buying stops? just look at the RNS history

Even if you are proved right and 500 is reached that is a 19.6% gain

AET are at 45. To get the same gain, that needs to go to 54p. I am betting I will see that before I see IAG at 500. Winter is fast approaching and some evidence to support demand pushing Brent move north although not absolute given macros/politics

GLA

Indeed so.

Market values SLP at around 4x cash earnings at current run rate with high 30s net margin. That is pretty low.

At 90p (≈$318 m market cap) and FY2026 EBITDA ≈$97 m (est), the EV/EBITDA is 3.3×—well below peer norms.

Even after deducting sustaining capex, implied multiples on cash flow are still conservative (4×).

That is a fair point but many times I have seen prices fall on great results does not make any sense except comments like those results were already baked in etc and the market was expecting better ones etc. maybe those comments are correct maybe not, I do know I have felt confident about holding only to be disappointed for no apparent reason. The rights issue was fun back in 2020 or whenever it was deciding what to do etc. I think I ended up tail swallowing so that was a good learning experience.

Where to next indeed...

Well SLP looks like it has finally turned the corner with the PGM being in demand vs short supply

And AET looks cheap at current oil price.

Both carry significant risks as both are commodity plays.

Net Nets are hard to find. SFG1T is one I have been eyeing as NCAVps is 1.55 trading at 1.16 but my brokerage cannot place an order due to feckin sanctions!

The other worry is the bubble bursting talk which is on-going and relentless. People are moving to cash or Treasuries and I don`t blame them.

GL!

5 year LTH out at 418 for a 100% return thank you IAG 20% p.a. average is double the S&P 500. Makes up for BOO which really was boo hoo !

Good luck all LTHs

Have you read the Auditor`s Report (sorry, Opinion)...it is full of so many disclaimers for fear of being sued Caparo style.

SYME has been borderline scam/fraud since inception and everyone knows it but that does not stop thrill seeking speculators punting on making a few grand backed by paid rampers.

LTHs who bought into the Story ignored the Red Flags, we all know what they are, no need to repeat.

Time is a great healer and so the Story gets to be re-told.

72 billion shares outstanding. It is risible. But still the roulette turns, the casino doors open, and the punters roll on in.

Nothing changes and nothing will.

Until it does.

Same old same old ....those who bought this sucker stock at the high yesterday now 50% underwater. Those that bought at the bottom are up but with tiny gains from a tiny stake. Anybody who puts anything other than pocket money or loose change into this sucker stock is either very brave or very stupid and probably, both. Feel for the big losers like MRRR who lost tens of thousands. Did somebody really claim to have lost £200,000 that is mind-blowing. Those that did lose big genuinely thought they were going to be millionaires, that the penny-stock [wet] dream was coming true [no pun intended]

There was talk of "Golden Tickets".....people bragged about being in the "Millionaires Club" (share vol). Happy Days.

They soon turned into a nightmare for those that gambled away their hard earned savings on the promise of getting rich quick. Del Boy himself could not have said it any better : "THIS TIME NEXT YEAR WE WILL ALL BE MILLIONAIRES"

Hook Line Sinker.....fobbing people off....broken promises...over and over again. The LTHs know the truth. And still they pray in aid that their 95+ losses will like Lazarus come back from the dead.

I love SYME. It is great for trading. You can time your watch by it. A quick 23% here [12-days open] or 14.6% there [1-day open) but I never had the cajones to put in anything more than £750.

I doubt I ever will.

GLA

Happy trading

"I see someone hasnt [sic] read the Financial result...

They have just received $3m dollars with a further $2.2m dollars coming before 31st October 2025"

Er, that is called either short term or long term debt, depending upon whether the due date is 12-months or more.

The cash account is on the Balance Sheet: £35,000.

Hardly any revenue, loss-making, negative equity to the tune of 4m. Same old, same old....

The hamster wheel goes around and around with the same pattern of behaviour suckering in even more speculators but this time it will not work. The amount of the trades being placed are tiny. It appears the school children are spending their lunch money.

You cannot con an honest man.

People who lose on this sucker-stock deserve everything they get.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but do they not currently hold more cash than the current market cap?

Nope:

Mcap 6.4m

Cash £35k

TradingView shows 46.4B shares float for a £2M Mcap but either way , their cash position is not much more than the value of my car.

Just wanna thankz you all for paying for my niza salary:

2024 £219,793

2023 £219,674

2022 £219,576

2021 £234,376

2020 £138,750

While you lot looza all your moneys, I still getz paid. Itz nice No!

So here we go again.....roll up roll up!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

My new Ferrari is on order. It s a big red colour :)