Member Info for Quiggers52

I have got 15 squid spare.

That`s about the average trade value on this pile of steaming you-know-what.

Anybody who places anything larger than 500 squid has my sympathies.

Try, the casino or even the gee-gees; the odds are better.

Rh. may be key here. For every $100 fall in the Pt price, Rh needs to rise $555 to fully offset the loss.

Pt has slipped last 2/3 trading days dropping around 100 whilst Rh has surged over last 5 trading days just over $1,000 more than making up for the Pt drop.

For the faithful, another brief buying opportunity presents itself.

GLA

He was a somewhat eccentric gambler pundit broadcaster on the gee gees. Not sure what the point is whether he knew or not about racing.

PGMs and SLP is a different ball-game.

There are rich pickings to be made here (and in oil stocks for the brave-hearted).

Ignore macros.

Go with fundamentals.

The faithful to this BB and SLP know all too well what that means, the numbers speak for themselves.

GLA

= Opex

Capex = $54m but that includes "stay-in-business" capex and "discretionary" capex

The latter is is a variable and thus the former is not published. These metrics depend upon market forces.

Recalling that current period, 2/3rds production is hedged at (mid) $63/bbl

These guys know what they are doing!

GLA

To time the market or not or at least, to try to.

Some interesting assertions about exiting bear markets (assumes one knows when they drop of course) vs. buy and hold.

There is no right or wrong answer as I can see.

Also interestingly, there is this:

https://13f.info/13f/000095012325008343-berkshire-hathaway-inc-q2-2025

It is Berkshire`s holdings.

WB and Co are 3.2% up mainly due to his 22% AAPL holding`s 19.5% return (as at yesterday).

GLA

Https://www.tradingview.com/x/ASUaO3Z3/

Or to put it more simply, at current production levels, the market is valuing AET based upon an implied oil price of $37/bbl

Even if that were accurate, AET would presumable, hedge.

Will oil drop by 40%?

And if so, for how long....

Panic selling.

The AI bubble bursting fear is rippling through into bear market sentiment.

However, I recall the Buffett mantra: "be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy"

In any event ,for the market to value AET at 41p and assuming a conservative 12% discount rate this implies:

Oil Price: $41 per barrel

Production Level: 4,700 barrels/day

Terminal Growth: 2%

FCF Conversion: 40% of operating profit

Enterprise Value: $116.01 million

Per Share Value: £0.41 GBP

This valuation reflects a bearish market outlook, assuming: significant oil price weakness, substantial production decline from current levels (~6,200 bpd)

No growth in cash flows

Fine if ppl want to believe that. I do not. For that reason, I am increasing holding in on the assumption that even if AI bubble does burst and that is a big if and price of oil does drop a third to 41p, would production levels fall (as above) when AET Opex break even is $35?

I recall 5 yrs back when the futures oil contract were negative $37 meaning you had to pay people to take oil off your hands because of storage costs. Before long it reversed and hit 100. That is the way it works, has worked and always will work. Nothing changes.

Meanwhile amid all of that volatility, AET keeps rolling.

GLA

So drop in Olive on peace in Middle East how long will that last I wonder, give it a few weeks if that. And then those who did not load up will be kicking themselves so have taken the opportunity to grab another 15 thou. I mean it would be rude not to.

GLA

PL2! platinum futures: $1,709 paid

Shame about the dollar. The strengthening ZAR means profits reduced by 10% solely on the exchange rate. The good news is the ZAR is still weak by historical standards. The stronger the ZAR, the more expensive those costs become when converted to USD.

NTM: my agent calculates 12p / 16 cents at 1.34 exchange rate to give $42.3m net on 260m sh out.

Your figures are more bullish and I hope "he" is wrong and you are right!

So to those "watching", these numbers basically more than double the net profit in the prior reported year.

I`ll do it for him/her:

TTM (FY2025): Net revenue $104.2m, Net profit $20.2m.

Next 12 months (Pt $1,400; Rh $7,000; Pd $1,100; Ir $4,500; Ru $900; Chrome $270):

PGM revenue: $187.7m

Chrome revenue (group mid‑guidance): $31.1m

Total revenue: $218.8m

Estimated net profit (using FY2025 NP margin): $42.3m

To give a non cash adjusted P/E at 90p of 7.5

Today`s P/E: 14.5

GLA

Would be nice with spot Brent nudging 68

Agreed

trading account: another 12000 on 49p entry for what I hope will be a quick in/out 5% or so.

Fingers crossed

Buy to Hold on nearly 200,000 main holding

Pretty avg results. its a money making machine, but nothing here to set the world alight, and the markets reacted that way.

Yea. With Brent at mid 60s not much headroom on a FCF break even basis including capex and well as opex.

The RSC Block 3/24 does not move the needle on the numbers until 26/27.

Brent Price ($/bbl) Estimated FCF ($m)

50 -22.71

55 -14.15

60 -5.6

65 2.96

70 11.51

75 20.07

(That includes current capex of 54m)

Metric TTM NTM (est.)

ROE 33.0% ~45%

ROCE 38.2% ~46%

Gross margin 43.6% ~52.7%

Net profit margin 21.0% ~28.2%

Net profit (reported) $33.5m $45.5m

Net profit + non‑cash(NI + D&A + SBC) $53.4m ~$67m (adds D&A and SBC; excludes WC)

Adjusted P/E(cash‑adjusted) ~5.1× (vs ~4.7× plain P/E) ~3.4 –3.7×(if the NTM PAT delivers at $67/bbl; purely illustrative)

CROCI(cash return on invested capital) 55.8% ~65%

Operating cash conversion ~95.6% ~85–95%

Oil price breakeven—≈ $60/bbl post‑tax (incl. ~$54m capex); ≈ $54/bbl pre‑tax

Important caveats & what would move these numbers:

Inventory timing & entitlement: Afentra sells in discrete liftings; your TTM will wobble around quarter‑ends when stock in tank builds/declines. H1 showed 0.7 mm bbl sold with another 0.5 mm bbl on 1 July — I normalised via TTM mathematics, but cash receipts lag liftings. [AET News]

Tax: Angola PSA mechanics + PIT drive a variable effective rate (H1‑2025 ~47%, FY‑2024 ~20%). Using the TTM blended ~29% is sensible for base‑case NTM, but if the price realisation or cost mix changes, so does the effective rate. [PetroTal A...al Updates], [AET News]

Capex sensitivity: Post‑tax FCF breakeven falls from ~$60 to ~$52 if net capex is trimmed from $54m to $40m; rises if 2026 rig work starts earlier or faster. [AET News]

Hedging: 2025 is hedged (floors $60–65), 2026 is not yet fully hedged per disclosures; forward prices will influence the true NTM window as we roll. [AET News]

Operating breakeven (~$30/bbl) — covers opex + admin + interest (no capex).

Cash breakeven (~$60/bbl) — covers everything including planned $54m capex and tax.

As Sollozo says to Vito in Godfather (Part 1): "If you consider a million dollars in cash just finance, Te salud, Don Corleone!"

Mushy peas - that is showing off now!

Te salud all round!

GLA

Summary:

TTM (FY2025): Net revenue $104.2m, Net profit $20.2m

Next 12-months (Pt $1,400; Rh $7,000; Pd $1,100; Ir $4,500; Ru $900; Chrome $270):

PGM revenue:$187.7m

Chrome revenue (group mid‑guidance):$31.1m

Total revenue:$218.8m

Estimated net profit (using FY2025 NP margin):~$42.3m

So perhaps SheffieldOwls is on the money: if net profit doubles, it is not unfair to think the SP might too.

"not misplaced because I am expecting the share price to double in the next year to eighteen months."

Well, that would be nice!

£1.50 will only happen IMHO if Rh starts to move north into the 15,000+ bracket and there is no evidence of that any time soon. I would take £1 quite honestly and be happy doing so as the dividends get reinvested and compound the gains. (But equally, the losses to of course).

So it is all about cycles and timing and Pl looks to be entering a potential interesting phase end of this month (daily chart)

GLA