Member Info for Quiggers52

25/02:"Short term the coming days will be interesting. Precious metals have risen on move to safe havens against Iran/US conflict backdrop whereas oil is still making up its mind (hovering around 70). If the US strikes, they have form for the aggression being over a weekend so as not to rile the markets. Could be this weekend or next or not at all."

3 days later...

Holy F*** they have only gone and done it. Similar as before. International law breached with impunity. Security Council Resolution? Nah, do not need those when you are the biggest thug in the playground and have the headmaster in your pocket.

Final nail in the coffin of the UN IMHO. It is over as a credible institution. Finished. A relic.

Where does this - SLP/PGMs go now... Full out regional war by the looks of it.

Gold and Oil set to spike?

gla

7% rise since I wrote that yesterday

Ask now 57

Yep

Melikes

gla

The market might think bad news from the talks today by the looks of it. Stagnant all day and then movement in the last hour has been steadily North.

May see this rising back to 57 as a consequence.

gla

"Feels a bit desperate from the company side two put out two rns two days in a row, when the news could have been in one. Management trying to protect the share price, but looks more desperate in the end."

hmmm...a bit surprising that there was only an initial small move up this morning which has now evaporated (for now). Indicates that the "good news" may already be baked in as momentum is not building as LTHs might have hoped - yet.

Directors look to have skin in the game here so sure they are drip-feeding the story to try to build, who does not try to do exactly the same in their circumstances?

The problem is it does not seem to be working.

I wish all the LTHs all the luck in the world here and really hope their patience is rewarded when the speculators have moved on to more fertile plains.

Interesting analysis!

Personally, I have no wish to link PGMs to the AI gravy train in fact it feels to me like marketing puff for PGMs.

When (not if) the AI bubble pops, then SLP should be well-placed to weather the storm. Trying to align SLP with AI in any form is just asking for trouble in my view as it simply is not needed; it is the diversification *away* from AI which an asset here.

I see Pt has had a significant rise .

Would like to see it break through resistance around the 2300 mark

Short term the coming days will be interesting. Precious metals have risen on move to safe havens against Iran/US conflict backdrop whereas oil is still making up its mind (hovering around 70).

If the US strikes, they have form for the aggression being over a weekend so as not to rile the markets. Could be this weekend or next or not at all.

gla

Yeah agreed Artrader I ran a Matthey Jan 1 to date of 4E [excl. Au] calc and averaged out at $2460 but that calc consistently comes in under reported 4E basket (why I do not know) but it does and by a factor of just over a quarter which when adjusted, gives $3,125 pretty much bang on consistent with y`all on here which is encouraging! So whilst the 2p divi was welcome news I am very much looking forward to the Q3 report.

And that net profit line of "only" $23m - they might look at that (as in how to report that) because it is misleading and would lead some, through no fault of their own, to undervalue the actual realised net profit by 9% . A small point in the overall scheme of things.

Pt holding

All eyes on Rh...

gla

Rh - indeed!

The H1 4E basket - as against the Matthey calc sheet - has the latter showing a 21% disparancy. Taking this into account, the Q3 to date 4E basket is 38% higher than reported H1 basket. I make the Q3 (to date) basket around $2,984. Of course, we still have all of March to go (and Q4). Fingers crossed!

No surprises here except the net profit which looked alarmingly low until the fine print showed a non-cash impairment. So earnings of 35 but Q1 and Q3 had them at around 39 mark so some down adjustment there but the 2p divi is nice and we know Q3 (Jan to Mar) has higher basket so just need Pt to remain steady above 2k and we should be home and dry to hit the 145p- 150p TP on FY

To give earnings of USD 86M. If Pt holds above $2k, sounds about right.

It is always interesting following penny "sucker" stocks (Stocko`s words, not mine). SYME was real fun.

People here talking about "the market reacting" like this or "the market reacting" like that, when the reality is that the "market" - in terms of the huge rise and how much cash was traded yesterday - was only the equivalent of 500 people (across the whole world) putting down £330 each!

Perhaps recent rise reflect price of olive; to do with traders positioning for a failure of Iran/US talks

round 2 tomorrow.

A £2 share price implies EPS of $0.45. There are 260m shares outstanding. Using historical multiples, that equates to FY net profit of $118m. Consensus on here is anywhere between FY $70m to $90m which is about 130p to 150p

It all hangs on Pt. It if can hold above $2,000 then 150p looks realistic.

gla

With all due respect, I do not call two weeks a down trend, I call that a pull-back. The uptrend was from Jan 2025, so a full 12-months, before 2 weeks ago: with drops of 6% and 4%.

And if Pt. moves to $3000, then happy days indeed

Metals look to be consolidating. For now. Let`s see at days end!

Perhaps be cautious as tomorrow there is the US non-farm payroll data released at 13.30 Don`t quote me on that. If it comes in at less than 70 then that is bearish for the USD and makes metals more attractive. And vice versa. So today was fairly flat as investors want to see that data release. My guess and I admit i could be very wrong is that tomorrow will be a fairly good day or a fairly bad day with a sizeable shift either way. So in a way I want it to drop to step in and "volltanken bitte"

gla

Case Year Oil @ Sales (m bbl) Rev ($m) Av Eff Price ($/bbl) Prod (m bbl) Netback ($/bbl) PAT (US$m) EPS ($) FV ($) FV (£)

Low 2026 60 2.358 144.243 61.08 2.6934 36.86 54.391 0.24 1.20 0.88

Base 2026 69.25 2.358 161.263 68.48 2.6934 42.78 63.126 0.28 1.40 1.02

High 2026 80 2.358 180.503 76.84 2.6934 49.47 72.995 0.32 1.61 1.18

Price Multiple x5

How do you guy see the numbers looking?

"Reading posted messages there seems to be a consensus that next quarter revenue is 'guaranteed' to be best ever. *I hope I'm wrong but my understanding is that price must be North of $2500 to see significant jump in revenue."

For Q3, Jan - we already know metals were at or trading near ATH prices.

Feb and Mar, that is not the case, but still historically elevated.

Providing Pt. stays at or above $2,000, it should be good.

This is a useful tool:

https://matthey.com/products-and-markets/pgms-and-circularity/pgm-management

However, from last 2 Qs, Matthey basket looks to be 20% under reported basket.

gla

Try telling that to Sheffieldowls who has a couple of million and a half invested in SLP!! Now THAT is cajones ...

gla

Yes, me too. 3 month timeline targeting 26% upside from today`s ask for target of 132p assuming 4E prices hold stable. Feb 11 key date US January employment report (has input into dollar direction and by extension metal prices)

gla

Oil at:

55 1.028796 ≈ 81 p

60 1.157396 ≈ 91 p

70 1.414595 ≈ 112 p

80 1.671794 ≈ 132 p

assumes (inter alia) multiple of x5 and downtime of 10%

gla

That is already out of date.

Fair value at these prices, taking into account January, is nearer 136p.

(Assumes a price multiple of x 6 which is the 10-year median.)