Member Info for Quiggers52

Many thanks!

Do you have a link or is it behind a paywall?

Yea Q3 baked in, just need Pt. to hold above floor of 2,000 for Q4. All metals down as USD strengthens. Temporarily I hope as the fundamentals pre War are for me still in tact so yet another opportunity to average down ready for the recoil which if it does not come we are all F*****D

gla

Paul Tudor Jones

https://www.trendfollowing.com/losers_average_losers/

I am saying the opposite: averaging down is for me anyway is exactly the right thing to do as Q3 results ought to impress.

PTJ well-know mantra is not the way-to-go on this trade leading up to Q3.

There are occasionally times when "LOSERS AVERAGE LOSERS" is definitely not the right policy.

This is one of them!

gla

Nice buying opportunity.

Q3 results expected to be great so doubt there will be any surprises. With Pt at 2000 floor FV 130 - 140 min for me but will Mr. Market agree....?

gla

Fortunately my limit buy order did not fill (I use IB) and then later on in the day I see Brent futures have tanked by 14% to now $84 on words from the Orange Utan that the war will be soon over.

When will Mr Market ever learn? Either he is right or I am wrong but I will try to get in again at 53.6 so hope that order fills.

I just cannot see Iran capitulating in the way the Market envisages. They have the upper hand and would be foolish not to use the leverage of the SoH blockage; it is their only Trump card.

(Did you see what I did there?!)

gla

yesterday was largest intra-day move in history. for brent.

markets believing orange utan is pretty astounding given that iran and only they decide about the soh.

so we will see; how ****ed off are they? how will their allies influence them? will the son want to avenge his father`s murder by inflicting as much economic pain as humanly possible?

took a short trading position at 57 we will see if it gets filled

i`m long anyway - in the bottom drawer with a time horizon of years.

gla

"National reserves being unplugged will be next step and provide some respite but temporary.

Difficult to see long term resolution without major escalation (boots/special forces on the ground) or Orange Utan humiliating climb down (TACO)"

15.30

today:

"The ⁠finance ⁠ministers of the G7 countries say they’re ready to ⁠take “necessary measures” to support the global supply of energy, which could ‌include the releasing of stockpiles. The announcement comes during 10-day war in the Middle East and its effects ⁠on oil and ⁠gas prices.

“We stand ready to take necessary measures, ⁠including to support global ⁠supply of energy ⁠such as stockpile release,” they said in a statement ‌after France hosted a video call on ‌Monday."

There ya go....

But Olive price down is temporary in my view. When the realisation dawns that this is no more than a "finger in the dam" solution watch what happens when the stockpiles diminish then dwindle and the water starts to break through.

There is a third option: demand destruction wherein super high Olive price smashes down demand to achieve supply/demand equilibrium with elevated prices at much longer duration. We will see that beginning by end of March is my guess if it happens at all.

From 65 to 85 looks a long way from here. This is struggling to move into higher gears.

AET: 6.5% in a week | Brent 31%.

AET: 27% in a month | Brent 50%.

So the market still does not fully accept that this is likely to be a long, drawn out war getting more fractured not less despite GS taking about Olive at 150 + being realistic.

National reserves being unplugged will be next step and provide some respite but temporary.

Difficult to see long term resolution without major escalation (boots/special forces on the ground) or Orange Utan humiliating climb down (TACO)

So it is Boots vs TACO.

gla

Brent trading between 101 and 110 up 15% since Friday close on news of the prior Iran Supreme Leader`s son now taking over. So no moderate there then and that has the market spooked.

AET to open at what 67/68...?

gla

Agreed 89.4 atow

Long time no see. Glad to see you are alive and kicking!

This has been stuck at 60 since March 2 when Brent futures closed at 77.7 now 4 days on Brent has hit 86.6 an 11% rise and this is still stuck at 60.

(I guess no one big is selling.)

Nobody is telling me that 100 Brent (that is where this is going IMHO) is already priced in.

Yea, it is bit ridiculous really given the huge level of uncertainty. Oil is all over the place today rising to 85 dropping down to 80 perhaps on a promise by the Orange Utan in the WH that US navy will protect vessels navigating the SoH.

I doubt traders or ship owners put much weight in such a statement from such a volatile mouth.

gla

Yes I agree with that. Q3 results should be out early April (?) We know the basket is v strong for Jan/Feb and despite Pt Pd pullback Rh is holding (for now). Entry around 113 /114 and hold until results. Will not be 50% more like 15%. However, that will do for me as I am not greedy, not a hog. We all know what happens to hogs

gla

Gold, silver down.

Markets down

Besides $ strengthening, demand side drivers (China) impact on PGMs?

Too soon to BTFD in readiness for Q3 results wherein basket should be significantly higher than previous.

gla

With the Middle East escalating into prolonged regional war, Olive must surely be heading towards $100 bbl ? as this is not looking like it is going to be resolved any time soon with the SoH now being declared closed.

gla

"Sorry I've sold up and on the sidelines . Opec maybe adding barrels is nuts.. Ive have no idea how oil price will react.

hopefully back in soon."

- You picked a bad time to exit two weeks ago hope you got/get back in after all of your hard work on this one. ATB -

gla