Member Info for Quiggers52

I don`t think the new guy is interested in cutting rates just the opposite according to Market watch who cite sources saying the crash was due in part to a dollar rally on prospects of Warsh putting interest rates up :

" Silver’s plunge on Friday was the metal’s worst daily drop since 1980 and was described by one strategist as “every man and his dog rushing for the exit.” President Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair fuelled a recovery in the U.S. dollar , with some analysts saying Warsh would be less supportive of lower interest rates than other potential candidates for the role. That prompted selling among precious-metals traders, but that may just be a bump in the road for silver’s rally."

"would be less supportive of lower interest rates" suggests he is more supportive of an increase leading to a stronger dollar presumably making precious metals more expensive for foreign buyers.

But there is the leverage factor too (leveraged 3 x silver ETFs down 60%) and silver is a smaller tighter market hence the 31% spot drop as opposed to Platinum 19% and Gold about 11% last time I looked.

Monday will be interesting! Dead-cat bounce perhaps? Have all the speculators exited now the froth has been blown off...

gla

Of course, lots count on the multiple. If you take a historical median of 6x earnings, 135p is looking fair value which is still a 20% upside from here. But that discounts entire the JV position which is why I used 8x.

gla

It is speculators panicking in my view. There was bound to be an almighty sell off sooner or later because these metals were basically going North every day for weeks regular as clockwork in the Trump safe haven/ dollar debasement trade.

That - like the Rhodium spike of 2021 - was never sustainable: 100%, 200% rises in a year??

Back to normality and no bad thing. Because such elevated prices do not impact the fundamentals.

I note Rhodium has not moved at all.

Yet...

gla

Correction (no pun intended) at 108p, H2 earnings implied by the market at this price on multiple of 8x is $9.6m. That is for Q3 and Q4.

Those here who know the business will know the opportunity that this presents.

That means market implied full‑year earnings are only $52.1m

Actual H1 earnings we know are $38.9m

That means market‑implied H2 earnings - Q3 AND Q4 are estimated at only $13.2m

We already know that Q3 earnings have smashed that due to the high PGMs which lag.

This is panic-selling. Shame IIs move to FRES et al and overlook SLP due to scale and AIM.

But it is what it is.

In the meantime, those who are brave and smart money will plough in on this drop.

Just wait 3 months...

gla

H1 actual of $38.89m

It is striking that at SLP price of 125p, "Mr Market" thinks H2 - i.e. Q3 and Q4 earnings - will be only $16.7m combined (not each quarter).

We know already that Q3 high basket PGMs is already a cert due to the lag

So basically, he thinks PGMs are gonna absolutely tank in the next 3-months to come up with those numbers.

(That assumes a price multiple of 8x. Hardly extravagant.)

gla

165p even perhaps a bit conservative? I`m looking at EPS at 23p - 25p

Food for thought:

Pt: Every +$100/oz adds ~$2.6m net revenue → ~$1m net profit → ~0.28p EPS

Rh: Every +$1,000/oz adds ~$1.05m net revenue → ~0.42m net profit → ~0.12p EPS

Scenario A — Q3 at current high prices, Q4 back to Q2 levels (conservative)

FY26 results:

• Revenue: $209.3m

• EBITDA: $109.8m

• Net profit: $82.1m

• EPS: 23.07p (FX: $1 → £0.731)

• Fair value @ 8× earnings: 185p

• Upside vs 126p: ~46%

Scenario B — Q3 & Q4 both at current metal prices

FY26 results:

• Revenue: $224.4m

• EBITDA: $119.0m

• Net profit: $88.7m

• EPS: 24.91p

• Fair value @ 8× earnings: 199p

• Upside vs 126p: ~58%

126p still looking decent value: 52% upside

Silver has outperformed everything and still seems to find new levels of support. It has already blasted past the significant psychological $100 mark.

SSLN, 1-year return of 237%.

Question is how further can this go with the geopolitical situation as tense and fraught with uncertainty, if there is one thing to like about DJT, he has helped create and sustain these levels but entirely not within his own making more as a consequence of his recklessness and fragile volatility.

Don`t feel too bad though, Berkshire Hathaway (Buffett) sold out of all of its Barrack Gold stock 5 years ago missing out on a 400% return.

Not that they are concerned about that of course.

Similar across commodities where spot/futures do not align (as the risk is higher)

TTM:

Pt futures contract April 2026 -202%

iShares Physical Pt - 180%

SLP - 170%

The outlier is FRES -over 500%. Wow

(But very expensive now with a PE of 87).

Perhaps one to short when the cycle starts to peak but when will that be?

Who knows!

I hope you did !!

The 2021 spike has to been seen for what it was because IMHO it was a one-off black swan event where Rh went el mas loco and nearly hit $30,000 oz and where criminals were regularly nicking cat converters off of motors to offload the Rh they contained. That was never sustainable. But it was a nice wave to surf whilst it lasted which was not long.

This rally by comparison is much more sustainable. And with the ever growing uncertainty which surrounds Agent Orange in the WH (I mean did you watch his Davos speech?!!) I cannot see risk-off going away soon. So gold holds and in doing so supports Pt. Also I see Goldman Sachs are bullish on gold. And they never get it wrong do they !!

gla

PL2! is TradingView futures, always represents the second-closest active expiration month on the calendar.

Tracking April 2026 (PLJ26) contract

XPT/USD: 2631. PL2! 2597

Draw your own conclusions

gla

Respectfully, no I do not think so. $40m is well within AET headroom. They have an RBL facility and at $55 oil (conservative?) their pay back period on this venture is less than 1 year. The slide is due to the "old" but on-going long -term baked in pessimism of demand constraints vs supply "glut". Many do not agree with this however. There was a recent spike due to the Davos summit Greenland crisis which led to huge uncertainty. Now that force has been ruled out and a deal looks to have been made combined with perhaps a breakthrough in Ukraine leads to the "old" narrative resurfacing once again.

Yea, we were 4% down today, lucky to take a few @ 43.1 p as oil futures look stable between $63 and $66, I`m expecting this to push back to mid 40s

PER of 4.2.

To give EPS 27 pence, 260m shares outstanding, estimated full year earnings of about $94m at today`s price of 113p. As I mentioned earlier, today`s PE is 19. So as SLP get "richer" its value as measured by PER gets cheaper.

Well, we know there is the 14M PBT. After tax roughly 10M. So that would set the consideration payable at USD 13M but as for the "customary adjustments", who knows.

Well, wouldn`t a £1.20 divi a share be nice!

SLP have 260m shares outstanding. So that is £313m (or $420m) it needs to find to satisfy that kind of divi ask.

As of June 2025, SLP had cash on its B/S of (about) $61m.

Assuming it hits full year net profit of (say) $75m, where do you think the other $284m is going to come from (leaving nil cash on it balance sheet)?

Earnings (net profit) forecast full year range from $60m to $100m. So if you are on the money, then your earnings estimate is way ahead of the curve!

gla

I`d be cautious. Oil now at prices not seen since 3-months ago.

Prior to very recent Iran risk, the settled prognosis on supply glut inc. OPEC + was oil at the mid 50s by June, 2026. Should Agent Orange signal a more conciliatory tone then this could turn very quickly. It is those shifts to be ready for.

Alternatively, the tension could escalate and if is prolonged then it is hard to see oil at those mid-50 prices.

It is when the supply glut risk evaporates that AET should reap the benefits as opposed to a oil price spike due to a very local risk. I do not like steep spikes, they tend to revert just as quick.

gla