Member Info for potnak

Hopefully you will be free to choose if you want it, should the time come. I have an covid unvacinated colleague. A few weeks ago, he loudly toughed out a bout of covid, only to then watch his unvacinated wife get taken into hospital for 8 days. He is still doubling down on it though.

99.9% survival rate but life long scaring and potential permanent vision lost. I'd 100% take a vaccine to prevent that.

Congrats, Mr Balt.

As a complete contradiction to my last post... Some pretty major RNS have dropped whilst I have been on holiday. 737 licence, 2 x HNWI subscriptions (1st and 3rd). Covid results and RF last year. So much do that I'm taking my laptop next time. Oh and I go to Cornwall for 2 weeks o Saturday. Ha ha.

I mean, LSESAR does have a point re funding but the simple answer is, the development isn't as far along as most here thought. I will admit to buying into the hype back then but TO and licences for tyk2 have been talked about on here since at least 2016! The company fed into that with upbeat RNS, deal sizes etc. Then in 2018, they started talking about entering clinic with tyk2, when in reality the translational studies hadn't even been done. Still didn't stop those here talking about TO though. From 2018/9, depending on how you work it out, we are between 18 months to 3 years behind schedule. We all know why, no need to revisit that conversation. I'm not sure why some here think it will be different this time. But then, I've moved on from the hype. The last RNS gave an "advisory" target of end of Q3. Ignore those that said itll only take a, few week to review the data. The official RNS said end of Q3. If it comes before then, great, what a bonus. My advice is to setup an RNS alert for Sareum and avoid the conversations here. Your mental health will thank you for it.

Damon, that is my guess. No need for a ceo still in development stage.

I hardly go over to Advfn but it wouldn't surprise me if GSK aren't indirectly involved with 737, via a resurrected Sierra Oncology. And if the case, moving the TYK2 compounds under the same umbrella would make sense too. GSK could then fund but keep at arms length until compelling news.

The system only works because of the stuff you listed. Market Makers, literally manipulate the share price in order to keep an ordely market. That is the job.

Lol, there are a lot here who like to think they know how the markets work but they don't. I have 1000's of post and I will admit, what I know about shorting you could write on the back of a postage stamp. Who cares! Be wary of any posters that parrot the usual statements. Mm's loading up, big order being filled, shorts being closed etc.. They are calling themselves out. And before anyone points the finger, I dont know how the markets work either. I used to use Level 2 but without volume, it's useless. Sareum trade under the SETqx service. An electronic order book where, as far as I'm aware. What you see is what you get.

Yes, really interesting, to me at least the way the wrap changed the dynamic. Some here will make over a million in profit way before £4.50. I added to my pot at the lows but kept myself just under the free ride. So I only have 90k shares that cost me just less than I've taken out. But it means I can justify (to myself) taking the risk in waiting for fair value through the trials.

Would you sell for £4:50, silver? I mean if the SP got there without a TO? I'm 54 and would retire tomorrow if I was handed 6 or £700k. The wrap shares created a whole new dynamic on this board. For me, if you take away funding risks the value of the compounds will be set is the usual way. Risk, potential etc... There is no reason why Sareums compounds should be valued any less than other similar compounds. And that very roughly equates to 500 to 1 billion per compound at the end of phase 2.if we still have 3 in play by then, well, you can add it up. I remember a time when £1 a share was the target for a lot here and that's was when there were over 3 billion shares in issue. What I'm getting at is, if the compounds get to market, the value could be in double digit billions whether we sell up at £500 million or not. If I woke up tomorrow and my suddenly ly with £700k, but with more legs to go higher. I would probably sell up even though I believe I could get more.

I'd settle for £9 if it was in the next month or so. But if we start 1801 P2 trails and combo for 737, I'd want double that in the next 18 to 24 months.

Hi warthog. There are some here who own enough 10p shares to make a million in profit if the SP get to a pound. And I'm sure lots here will sell those 10p shares on the way up to and past a pound. I'm still of the opinion that the only way anyone gets this at a lowball price is via a hostile takeover when the selling starts. We would get advanced warning via a TR1 though.

The SP is languishing down here because there is a doubt where funding will come from. Once that is sorted, they only way is up. I genuinely believe that once 737 is progressing and fully funded, it is a 800 million compound at the end of phase 2 combo trial. Really good results, possibly more. News on 737, should see us back over a pound. Without being too negative, we are where we are because of a lack of planning and not taking advantage of raising when the share price was much higher. We don't and may never know what happened but news on 737 and good p2a results should see the sp pushing previous highs.

What do posters here base their valuations on? £2 is approx 220 million market cap. Let's assume all compounds are good, then base on other compounds, license and TO deals. Then on resuming or starting phase 2 combo trails, 737 should be valued between £500 to £800 million. 27.5% of the higher valuation is already £2 per share. If 737 has backers with deep pockets, 737 will be a billion dollar compound by the end of phase 2. Again assuming a free ride into phase 3, the wholly owned 1801/1802 could have valuations in the multiple billions before phase 3 completion. The board know the value of the compounds, they have pointed, several times at other comparable deals. Sierra's momlotinib sold for 1.6 billion dollars, albeit at the end of phase 3 but the market size for mylofibrosis is only 1.5 billion per annum. Psoriasis is 35 billion and we have 1802 which could dwarf that market size. Let's say they choose an 1802 indication with a similar market and assume both compounds go all the way. That's a potential 70 billion per annum market. Even if a 99% discount was applied, that's 700 million plus 737. 220 million would be laughable. I don't believe we will get a take over, I think it will be an on licence but if TO numbers are been discussed. I'd hope the board wouldn't entertain anything less than a 1 with 9 zeros. As Andy MKb states, you could sell at a pound or 2. Lots of 10p shareholders probably will but the valuation of the compounds will stay aligned with the market size of the indication minus any discounts based on where they are in the development cycle.

Yes, I'm counting myself in that. My guess is pointless. I rarely come to this board anymore. Just full of people nit picking. See you all the next time I happen to look.

My thoughts are there is no need for Tim to step aside for a TO, that could be announced on the TO RNS. Same for an on licence. IMO, there are only two logical reasons for Tim stepping aside. Personal or his views on future strategy differ from the rest of the board and essentially, hes been voted down and the 'part time' role is so he can keep his substantial share options.

Something is definitely happening but without knowing Tims true reason, there is no point guessing. The board have given an end of Q3 advisory deadline so we wait. News should come any time between now and October. I also think that the unblinded data release isn't market notifiable so they could already have the data but using it for negotiation and we could well get the news that it is good with an on licence RNS as they wouldn't want the SP to artificially rise above what the licence is worth.

As always the case with SAR, no news, is good news. It will come when it comes.

One for the lovers of tenuous links. I ofter thought that the decision to base 1801 trials in Aus was more than just a shared language. I said at the time that Aus based trials would be ideally situated for access to the asian market. And now someone could be laughing or happy in Thai. Some big phamas are based on Bangkok.

Someone is have a laugh, probably. 555 is used by Southeast Aisians to signify laughing in text.

Yes, agreed. Shepherd!