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Yep, leggster. I can see scenarios for both options. I just can't see why a phama would risk a large amount of cash without knowing the efficacy that 2a would indicate. Happy to be schooled on what data could be gleaned from 1a but as I understand it. The most we can expect is, 1801 triggers an immune response that would benefit trialing in other indications.

I dunno. I still think licensing, JV or reverse takeover, some sort of partnership. For those that think TO. Do you really believe it will be a TO or do you just want a takeover?

Blue. No demand for shares because of the question of funding. Once that has been cleared up and presuming it's good news on the data. Demand will be back.

Laz, jam tomorrow but only if the shareholders pay for it. The ruin of many an AIM investor.

An analogy would be, you have a full house in a high stakes poker game but your pot is tiny. Someone has seen your cards and is willing to stake you. Do you go it alone and risk having to fold or do you let them stake you and share the profits if your hand wins.

Effing ad popped up under where I was typing!

Yep, totally agree Aber. If they can't get a deal with the 1a data. I would automatically think why not. Have read a lot about Summit Therapeutics this week. A trial in China that looks to have beaten Keytruda with licenced drug Ivonesimab. Hmm, cancer immunotherapy looks to be big business right now. Ha ha. Summit paid 500 million dollars upfront with 5 billion dollars in milestones for Ivonesimab.

Yep, totally agree Aber. If they can't get a deal with the 1a data. I would automatically think why not. Ha e read a lot about

No need to say sorry Laz. Ha ha. We just have different opinions.

No suppression. IMO, its simple. Its demand for shares or lack of. The SP has been stagnant since the Edison report dropped the "non dilutive funding" phrase. I haven't bought since then, and I said on here that I wouldn't. Why would you? Any raise that comes with a share dilution will also be at a discount to the SP on the day it is announced. Better to sit this out until funding is announced. Yes, you might miss the boat but if it is a license, there will be lots of buying (and selling) opportunities over the next couple of years.

Fearg. At this stage, I think psoriasis is the path of least resistance to market. That isn't to say once P2 is out of the way they couldn't also start parallel trials in other indications

The longer this goes on and this is especially true if SOG is correct but the longer it goes on, the more likely scenario is a third party taking 1801 forward. I still think licence but a TO could happen. The clock is also ticking on the we hope to start P2a in 2024. Even with cash, that deadline going to be tight. Its another reason why I think, licence. If licence, we'll have no control over the trials.

Loosely two scenarios (risk of a third)

External intervention and funding

Release data and raise cash for 2a

Third option is lacklustre data and whatever comes with that.

Laz, I have some cash to buy if there is a raise. I really don't want that option but to protect my investment, I would probably buy enough to keep all things equal.

Some would say suppression/manipulation others would say making a market. With an the low volumes and current illiquity. It looks like the Mm's had to work hard to fill that order of £21k today.

If you take 27% of the 1.2 billion for 737. The total figure isn't far off the 800 million that the guy from Nimbus wrote about. Thwy batted that straight back to the interested party.

I still think we'll get a license but 800 million dollars is around £5.7 per share at todays exchange rate.

Market car was around 90 million just before RF came into the picture which is approx 85p with todays share count. £3 is only just in the region of all time highs and that was before trials. There was some AIM casino stuff going on but still, £3 should be laughed at and not even passed on to us shareholders. In general and these are usually US based ballpark's but a 1801 P2 ready compound ballpark is 2 to 300 million dollars. 1802 at phase 1 is 100 million dollars and 737 at phase 3 is 1.2 billion. This is assuming the compounds are progressing, in demand and there are no safety risks.

Don't think it happens in the phama world though. The only time it does happen is if the drugs are lackluster. Think GSK selling momelotinib to Pronai for pennies, then buying it back once Sierra had taken the risk to develop. . Say GSK held the licence, would they be happy for Astra to buy up Sareum? Just to cream off profits. Not an expert but I bet there is something in the contracts to stop that. It more likely that any license with have the option if first refusal for 1802.

I'm not sure why a license is being seen as less than a TO. A license, even if at the lower end of upfront payments will lift the burdon of funding. It will effectively take the brakes off. Even if we only get back to pre a RF SP. Some here will make 7 figure profits. And that will just be the start. If the compound progresses well, milestones will be paid, further strengthening our funding options. 1802 will be validates and will jump straight into p1b trials. Could be looking at £2 a share within a year. Those that would like an early out can take it. Those that want to risk seeing how far it can go will hold.

I guess there could be an element of FOMO here. If TAK279 was worth 4 billion on 2b data and we have 2 TYK2 in the pipeline then a pharma might want to secure the whole caboodle for a discount. It's also the last chance to do a TO. Once a licence is signed. The drug is effectively theirs and can only be sold by the pharma who iwns the licence.

I've thought and said on here that maybe 737 is somehow linked to the next stage in Sareum's development. Gone to a private company, CPF are private so the only reason to suppress news would come from Sareum. Appropriate time indeed. It also occurred to me that Tim now works part time, so time to maybe sit as an advisor on a n other board. This is what I think about when I'm out in a run ha ha.

I don't think anyone would prefer an onlicence, Ben. For me at least I just can't see us getting any TO offers until we have psoriasis patient data. We are 1 pretty major step away from that. But you can see from Damion's post just how quickly fortunes can change once we have psoriasis data.

The half life thing is a biggie. It means orally, once a day. That's is probably a big advantage over competitors.