Member Info for potnak

Sareum asked for an extention for the interim results a couple of years ago, maybe 2022? They may still do that.

The publishing of results is a laboured point here but the board are backed into a corner. Either they release the results with no changes to 1801 status, which I think will displease the market and the SP will take a hit. Or, they releases an RNS with an updates for the 1801 trial and then a second RNS for the results with an Investor Meet presentation. Technically, they have plenty of time but done thing has to give at some point.

Yes, 6 months. I don't think there is a requirement to notify the results, you can just release the results. And inline with other years, the results are not overdue either we could go another 2 weeks and still be ok. The results aren't that important, although they will have to include cash burn etc.. so we will get an idea of how long we can go without funding. The important bit for us is what it says about 1801 trial status. I'm sure the board know what they are doing and hopefully, it is all in hand.

HBD link said results 'expected'. Still needs an RNS to confirm. The notification RNS has an "about sareum" section. The wording of that will have to change or it may appear to the market that progress hasnt been made. This is what I've been banging on about. Even the notification RNS could be price sensitive and the longer it goes on, the more agitated the shareholders will be.

I mean, It does depend on what you define as good news. No news might indeed mean, the company is in negotiations but the longer it goes on when we know other news is due. Then you have to think that our negotiating power is time limited and compromise or tough decisions will need to be made. I'm pretty chilled about it but experience has shown me not to count my chickens.

Shares in issue around 108 million. I be happy for the board to round up and add 2 million shares to share out between them accordingly.

Having said that, I still think it will be a license.

Whilst, I'd take 600 million, if the board thought we couldnt go any further. I do think double that is achievable within a year, if p2a goes well.

When the rug is pulled from under you as many times as it has done with SAR. The go to scenario has to be jam tomorrow. I'm talking about the investors but also it fits for the sar board. I'm not being negative here either. Worse case scenario is data good but we need fining from a raise. Best case is a full buyout. Anything in between would be amazing. Worse case, just means more dillution and more waiting. Best case means never having to suffer the god awful UI on this page.

They've done it before SOG. We have the data, weve reviewed it all looks good. We will now explore options to fund p2a. That would be a regulatory compliant update and essentially good news but the market would see it as negative.

Enki. The complete radio silence, more silent that the usual silence. Can only mean one thing. Negotiations for some sort of deal. The news re 737 going to pronai in september 2016, came after a prolonged news blackout. It kind of came out of the blue where as this time, there are other updates they have to give us but can't because of the forward looking statements that go into every RNS. If they did put something out without an update it would be seen as negative and the SP would go down. I certainly don't think negotiations are nailed on and we have a deal inbound but I, personally have no doubt that the talks are in flow. I'll be nervously watching for an RNS this afternoon. They might try to push out a "we have the data and it looks good" type RNS but with no meat on the bones.

SAR have never been great at website admin so this is unusual if deliberate. I'm erring on the side its a mistake.

Yes, the RNS to notify the release of the year end results is due any day now. Last year's RNS dropped on the 3rd of Oct, exactly 1 year ago. These results always feature a forward looking statement of where we are with the compounds and for the last few years. There has been an investor meet presentation. As it has been said, the financial result are not important but the forward looking statement can't include an update on the trial results unless, we have had an official RNS update before hand. No more than 2 weeks before something comes out, I'd say.

Yes, Laz. The results are neither here nor there but the forward looking statement woukd ha e to include an update on all compounds. IMO, they can't publish the results without first releasing a price sensitive RNS. Positive or negative, they have to release something. The only get out would be "we are awaiting unblinded data." which it's self would be seen as negative. Oh to be a fly on the wall at sareum towers.

Another question to ponder. If a full buyout is announced, does that negate the need to report on full year?

Yes, so do I but as it's a unknown, I did the lower valuation.

Here is the link. There are others out there that come to similar figures but this one is clearer and easier to read.

https://www.baybridgebio.com/drug_valuation

Ball park figures are below. I will dig the link out but these figures have calculated by studying lots of pharma deals.

Start of phase 1 = 105 dollars

Start of phase 2 = 285 dollars

Start of phase 3 = 1248 dollars

I we assume

737 is phase 2 ready and calculate our 27.5%

1801 is phase 2 ready

1802 is phase 1 ready

A valuation now would be 471 million dollars. In pounds that wouldn't far of all time highs. Phase 2 data is where we need to be.

It's worth noting my valuation is on good phase 2 data. Roughly made up of 400 million for our share of 737 and 800 million for each TYK2 compounds. Noting out of the ordinary for 1 phase 3 asset and two phase 2 assets. If a deal was, done now, I'd expect a discount to be applied.

Maybe today is the day, Oracle?

All I know is we are pretty much guaranteed an RNS in the next week or so. Like I said before, they could delay the results if they needed more time. They did that last year or year before.

The last 3 final results have been in Oct and delivered with an IM presentation. Last year's was on the 3rd Oct so today. The timing isn't relevant but the notice RNS is. They can't release the results without an update and I don't think they can't release price sensitive news in that update. So there is a dillema for the board.

It would be nice to think that Owen and the other NEDS are locked in rooms, negotiating deals for us but I was always under the impression that the NEDS were brought on board in a regulatory capacity. It was hinted at a few times and there have been comments quoting the the Takeover Panel and the Takeover Code. There are rules around big deals and takeovers that need a structured board in place. This is what the NEDS give us, compliance. They might have some good contacts and will add weight to any negotiations but IMO, it's Parker and Tim in the driving seat.