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Again, why would a pharma give us 300 million before knowing if it has potential in psoriasis? They could secure the compound with a measly 10 or 20 million and the promise of milestones and royalties. I hope I'm completely wrong but I just can't see it.

Bobbler, I know that conversation. My other half is the same. Ha ha.

I'd love for it all to end and I trust the board enough to recommend any offers they deem as fair value but I just can't see a TO with no psoriasis data. P1b was supposed to give us that but the RF debacle scuppered any chances of a low cost raise. I wouldnt be surprised if the pivot to 2a was to position the compound to partners or even at their request. I don't think we have long to wait for some clarity.

I have asked this question before. If the science is as good as some here think and the market cap got to £300 million through trial progression only but had further to go. Would you sell?

Yes, but a licence won't be unexpected that is litterally the business model. Discover, development and on licence. For me a buyout would be unexpected. Ha ha.

On a serious note. One of the reasons why good news doesn't move the SP here is that shareholders are expecting more than what is announced. I'm hoping for an on licence with enough upfront to progress 1802 through p1 trials. Anything better than that will be amazing.

I agree Krone but for me, it's a moot point. I think we will on licence. I can't see any phama stumping up the cash when they can license for a fraction of the valuation. That way, they only pay out the big bucks if successful.

I wouldn't even know how to assign a value. Other than ip, good half life scores and safety. We dont have anything yet. As far as I'm aware, Biomarker data just shows there is a response from the immune system, a good reason to move to 2a. If the immune response is really good, better than the competitors. Then we might get a pharma making a discounted offer. Personally, I think we'll need data from from 1801 2a, psoriasis patients. But if 1802 is un licenced at this stage then we could get takeda type offer just for the 1802 cancer indications based on 1801 validation.

SOG, posted a great link on bio valuations last week but as far as I can tell. We can't use any of those methods until we have something concrete.

Will a good plan and no setbacks. 2B data should come towards the end of 2026. There will be good selling points along the way.

For Phase 1 valuations, we could be looking at a 90% discount of whatever TAK-279 is valued at now. Still mega and possibly near Aber's £500 million when you consider 1802 and our share of 737 into the mix. All to play for but so close to some eye watering valuations too.

Yes, ultimately. We will get the deal the board negotiate. They know the value, they will know the type of valuation we can expect and at what stage. They even shared some deal sizes with us so we have an idea. It would be good to if those that posted recent deals done to analyse at what stage that deal was done. and yes Gus. The Takeda\Nimbus deal was on 2b data. All things equal, With 2 TYK2 compounds then even with a healthy discount. We could be looking at a billion dollar valuation Whilst still in P2.

Hi Basser. I hope i'm completely wrong and we do get that elusive buyout. My fear is we will only get p1 and preclinical values because that's where we are. No pharma is going to give us a billion when they could get the rights via a licence for 10 or 20 million with the promise of some bio bucks should it go well. The potential is massive here but we will only realise that potential with phase 2 efficacy data. Some here would be happy with a couple of pounds and that would be a good return but we'd be selling ourselves short IMO. If the compound work and progresses, you are looking at billion dollar valuations at the end of phase 2 with data that suggests phase 3. All of our opinions are based on our own circumstances and attitude to risk. At 54, i'm happy to wait this out so we see fair value.

The patent adds backend value because it extends the life of the patent. The risk risk of failure is still the same though. Big pharma will be looking to secure the rights to the compound for as little as possible. I predict a small upfront with big backend milestones. Not a big deal for me as that lve what I've always thought. As long as the upfront us enough to fund 1802 to p1. We'll be laughing in 2 years time. I think we will hit critical mass when all compounds are progressing nicely.

Yep PC, I actually thought I'd typed 150 million shares.

at this stage the risk of the science not getting to 2a is minimal, imo. the risk is funding and where it comes from. i still think we need approx £10 million to get though the next 2 years. we need to fund 1801 2a, 1802 preclinical studies and 1802 p1 plus running costs,salaries etc.. they could do it for less and raise just enough to get 2a done but then we need to raise again, probably at the end of p2a and you get stuck on this perpetual cycle where the big investors don't want up buy shares because the company balance sheet looks terrible. if we were to raise i think we're are looking at 15 to 30% dillution at a 20% discount. so around 130 million shares at 24p when done. even that might not get us to £10 million. mostly guess work but there will be loads of punters out there ready to buy here doing the same *** packet calculations. a licence deal flips that scenario on its head. if funding is sorted then the sp will go up and up. the big question for me is if they can't get a deal that will find the trails and pay for 1802, why not.

it's an exciting time but the sp will stagnate or fall until the elephant in the room is addressed.

And an analogue could also mean the famous "submarine" patent that covers the make up of the compound that goes in the once a day capsule. That patent extended the life of the original patent too. Could do with Fadec still being here. He was good with the patent side of things.

Really good news, Celtic. I think it's a nod to say all us well with the unblinded data. Without actually saying all is well with the unblinded data. I think we are in Parkers "show us some data" phase.

Yes, you'd think 1802 but it's a confusing word to choose. Basically, in relation to.

The non dilutive bit just means total shares in issue doesn't increase. Yes we give away IP but the ongoing financial risk is carried by the licence holder. I haven't purchased any shares since the Edison Report dropped the "non dilutive funding" phrase in favour of "either through a development partner or an equity raise". I said at the time that it would kill the upward movement of the SP. Number one rule for AIM investing. When was the last raise, when is cash needed. This rule has saved me lots of losses over the years. Unless its a punt from a newbie, Why would anyone buy before the risk of dilution is removed? The stagnant SP shows that this is the case, IMO. Lots of punters, holding what they have or waiting for funding news. I think we will have confirmation in the next few weeks.

I've convinced myself that 737 was on licenced to the previous Sierra team, same terms and they know it inside out. Complete guess work but I think a shell company has been setup. X amount of shares, 500k of which goes to ICR and sareum. This would allow complete secrecy as not public. I think they will package up the current and combo pre clinical data, ready to raise cash or sell on. If it isn't a goer, they will hand it back. My personal opinion is 737 is probably worth between 500 and 800 million as it stands. Maybe much more with good combo data.

Warthog, it's a built in content filter, no government control, no conspiracy and nothing to do with lefties, Carter. We have really good freedom of speach laws in the UK, tied into the 1998 Human Rights act. You are free to say whatever you want to whomever you want, you are not, however, free from the consequence of your free speech. Crucially, in the last few weeks. Some seem to have forgotten that the last government used the very same laws, nothing has changed. Just laziness and wilful ignorance. Misinformation in the guise of freespeech is a massive threat to national security.

This is Sareum's MO. Release an RNS with clear guidelines for news flow. Everyone ignores that and thinks, nah it'll be quicker than that. The ramping gets a bit less rampy and the usual suspects then start to voice their negative thoughts. Same old same old. I said back in July, the data readout and news flow will take a while and we'd be very lucky to start p2a by the end of the year. No agenda, still think that. Although, I do think that we will get data readout with a funding update. Whatever option they choose.

Correlation v causality, Carter.

The cases of skin cancer is higher in those who eat ice cream on holiday. Does ice cream cause skin cancer?