Member Info for potnak

Aber - I'm pleased you got out of PYC with a profit. I did wonder if you would have. Can only see it drifting down again.

Didn't mean to start a negative wave on SAR. You should all take comfort in that we haven't jumped on the bandwagon. When our news comes, it will be real, something tangible. Some of the IMM investors are sitting on a 90% loss. Let them have their day. Our will come soon enough.

IMM have officially entered the Covid race. Up 18% already. C'mon SAR!

The RECOVERY trial is hoping to recruit 12000 patients. So the doses needed could run into the 1000's. Sure it isn't an issue but it is a question that needs to be answered. Think the size of the grant wouldn't be in question either, we'd get enough but I believe SAR would have to cover 20%. So if we need million for P1, SAR would have to find £200k.

Yep, good find RMM. I've no doubt that our compound would meet the criteria for being awarded a grant. So the fact that one hasn't been announce yet suggests there are other things in play. Who would run it? Can we manufacture enough of the compound for testing potentially 100's if not 1000's or patients? I'm leaning towards what Thoth said about us needing a partner to move forward with this. It would be great to think that the only thing were waiting on is what the contract looks like. For speed and to get things moving. My guess is low upfront, heavy backloaded and Juicy royalties.

So around the 1st June then? I think the longer this goes on, the less likely it will be a grant and more likely that we partner up with a much bigger company. Not long to wait.

Good subject title for this thread. You are right. Something doesn't feel right. When Tim said value within 12 months (was it really last June). He will have been fully confident of making that deadline. Which compound was he referring too? And how much value. What is significant value? IMO. If we take each compound and break it down. SRA737 - Licenced to Sierra. Tim would have known that no milestones would be paid until the trial had finished but he wouldn't have been able to predict when the trial would carry on running so, IMO that isn't where the significant value is coming from. Aurora was effectively mothballed so at the time Tim made this announcement, this isn't where the value is coming from. So we are left with TYK2 and specifically SDC1801. IMO, SAR were in negotiations with potential a partner\partners and they probably got held up with the patent and then came along Covid 19 to throw a massive spanner in the works. you couldn't make it up.
Here's SAR with a compound to licence for autoimmune diseases and then the planet is suddenly hit with a virus that causes patient immune systems to overreact. What Tim said last June is now irrelevant, the goal posts have been moved. Should we hold him to it? possibly. Will we need to hold him to it. Not likely. The last question is, what is value? I haven't a clue. All I know is everyday without an RNS is a day closer to an RNS that we see us rerate. Maybe in a spectacular way.

Yes, they have.

HI Utar. There are two ways of looking at it. There is the moral aspect. This is a worldwide crisis and we will be all living with the effects of Covid for a few years yet. If TYk2 can help and it looks promising, then, Tim, as a scientist will be really excited about how the research is progressing regardless of if it the SAR version or not. The other part of the moral dilemma is. If a drug comes out of this, then it has to be cheap enough for everyone on the planet to have access to it even if that means giving it away at cost to some countries. This may mean less profit for big pharma and by association, SAR. But we still win because it validates the compound to use against all the other autoimmune diseases, which are still out there changing lives. The other reason Tim is tweeting is of course, PR and because of ongoing discussions this is all he can do.

Yes, getting a grant and entering P1 as a Covid treatment will add way more to the SP than a £6 million milestone. I know we need the cash but we probably wont if 1801 start sailing through P1.

I agree Celtic but but we could be days away from being notified that our 100% owned compound is officially in the race to find a Covid treatment.

TBH CHK1 and to some extent, Aurora is a sideshow at the moment. Nice to have in our back pocket for when the time comes. Hopefully, they will both add value at some point but SDC1801 it the one. It has the potential to dwarf everything else we have in the short term.

Aber - The relatively big holders, who I think your one? I'm talking about those with over 10 million shares. They could sell maybe 7 million @20p and get a life changing amount of cash and still leave a few million riding, just in case it gets to a pound.
I have approx 2.7 million shares so dreaming big carries more risk if you know what I mean. I would find it really hard to ignore 20p or even 10p but my personal strategy involves me getting my initial stake back. Then holding to sell for 10p or more and leaving maybe half a million riding just in case we get to market. The same strategy works with all sizes of up front and don't forget we have 4 compounds. There is no way I'd sell until all were licenced or shelved. The binary risk of win\lose only comes in P3. There re still risks but we are nowhere near the binary win\lose with any compound. We know what Tim wants for the deals, he's mentioned other deal sizes several times. IMO, that's why we haven't got a deal yet. Tim is holding out for the true value.

The women thing always used to be said about Nottingham too. We have two universities so in normal circumstances there are up to 70k students here. It used to be great when I was young, free and single. It's still worth venturing into town when it's freshers week. Window shopping only now though :-)

Apologies then. It's just you said we have the bit and pieces.

gekgo = I read something about this the other week. Nice find and good to see Sheffield Uni and Teaching Hospitals on there. I'm from Sheffield :-)

Bighow - SAR are not in the vaccine business. We have nothing to do with creating a vaccine. If you replace "generic vaccine" with "targeted treatment"then I recommend your post.

Nearly blue again!

Think Stoney is surmising that because we are in negotiation, we are in a closed period where directors are not allowed to buy.

They don't really need to buy. They have a lot of options. Enough to be multi millionaires if it goes well.