Member Info for potnak

Those tweets aren't just random observations or a cynical way to raise awareness. They are a clear message to what we have. I just don't know who they are aimed at. News is near.

Do you think they may be waiting until all is ready to announce? Genuine question. I don't think there would be much point in putting an RNS out for grant approval, then extra funding and P1 approval. They will all happen quickly. Still think there will be a raise on the back of any sustained SP rise and honestly let do it. Lets go all in on this.

Because. That's my feeling. Could just be wind I suppose :-)

Like I said. Keep selling guys. Us LTH need the volume to fuel the rise. Sell orders are great too. Show your hand to the mm's. They'll take em off you. GLA.

Like I said. Keep selling guys. Us LTH need the volume to fuel the rise. Sell orders are great too. Show your hand to the mm's. They'll take em off you. GLA.

Its still great whether the sp is 0.5 or 1.5. When the inevitable deal comes, the SP will rerate according to the deal. Usually in a straight line.

Without something tangible e.g. cash from a deal. We need sellers or the MM's cant make a market. let them sell. For your prediction, we need sellers to be selling all the way up to 10p and then you need some buyers who are willing to buy your shares.

We'll have sailed through P1 and possibly P2.

Yes, before Covid. I would have sold at the first sniff of 5p. But Covid has changed everything. Even if our drugs don't show any efficacy for Covid. We'll have got them ready for P3 for autoimmune and in super quick time.

Just think news of a grant will come first. I'm happy to wait this out but something will give in the next couple of weeks.

I'm going to stick my neck out and say grant news this week. Short week too so 3 and a bit trading days to go. As others have said. If we get a grant, we have to put 20% in so. Grant news followed by a raise. I wouldn't worry too much about the raise. VAL announced the offer price as 6p this morning and the SP promptly went to 15p. This would be a raise worth doing as the SP can only go up because of the Covid factor.

aa - that seems reasonable. Its good to have a strategy but If TYK2 got into P3 for Covid. 30p would come and go.

No one really believes £8 is possible. Thoth has set his sell orders at that so the MM's can't borrow his shares. £4 is only possible if everything goes right. Chances are, some if not all compounds will fail a p3. That's where the risk is but don't underestimate the Covid factor. Remdesivir only shortens the length of the illness by 5 days and only against 51% of patients. The market thinks that's still worth about 6 billion dollars. Can you imagine what treatment would be valued at? These are eye watering amounts and like RMM says. 60p a share to us might just be worth the gamble.

Same market cap though.

Yes. but for the last 7 years our compounds weren't ready. They are now and Covid has just torn up the rule book. We could have a TYK2 in P3 by the end of the year.

I often think that Tim will use that number as his backstop. nothing less than that. Right now, with what we know. I'd take it.

Hi RMM. How have you worked that out? My own fag packet (a tried and tested method) calculation for a buyout is £200 million for CHK1, £800 mil each for the TYK2 and £200 mil for Aurora. Which isn't far off you lower value. With the patent application still not resolved, I don't think we'll get a buyout though. I know we are covered but a new patent resets the clock and obviously gives more time to make profits.

Then maybe a small raise on the back of the higher SP. Then news of progress over the next few weeks. If we go into clinics for P1 and 2. Breaks are off. All IMO etc. etc.

FWIW, I think it's impossible to value SAR because we know very little. I don't disagree with any valuations here or the methods used to get them. All we know it what other compounds have been valued at and the value will be far different if you are talking buyout or licence. Until we know more. The value is anything between 0 and over a pound. Not helpful but I personally think I'll be selling over 10p.

Better link. https://tinyurl.com/yblurogv