Member Info for potnak

Yeah Krusty. was just thinking\dreaming over the weekend. There have been similar TYK2 deals done with upfront payments being in the hundreds of millions. If the company sat on that, yes the sp would reflect that cash reserve but you would have to sell your shares to release it. But for me, that cash is profit and as such should be shared out between the shareholders. The company are no longer a development company so they don't need cash to fund development. I don't believe Tim or John would want to continue anyway so the company would need to be structured in way to move cash from our partners to the shareholder. Just a thought and I don't recall ever being in this situation.

The point is. The LTH's have invested, we are not trading and we have waited a long time. The SP is meaningless. The deal sizes will rerate the SP accordingly. If news were buses then 3 could come at once. :-)

I'm a long term holder and i don't care.

Sarah - nobody really thinks we'll get £4 a share. It was a valuation based on numbers and market size if we get to market. I wouldn't rule out 10% of that under the current circumstances though. It all depends if we are in the Covid race , the upfront and the fast track options that will give us.

Potentially, There is approx £70 mill in milestones for CHK1 to come. £900 k for Aurora and maybe much more and who knows what size a TYK2 upfront could be could be.

Krusty - Yes, but it would make a difference. You would still have your shares and a small payback. The end game here is to get to market or a buyout. That doesn't mean that we won't be earning on the way.

My question isn't really about divis, its about the point the company becomes cash rich. Some of the example upfront sizes would put us into that bracket. Can\do companies pay one off divis in this situation? or is it a year end thing?

Yes, obviously. But say we got an upfront of £20 million. £5 mil would easily cover operating costs for a couple of years so we would be in profit. £15 mil could be given to shareholders as a one off divi. Just wondered if anyone has even been in this situation.

I was thinking over the weekend about the deals which may come our way. Specifically TYK2. If the upfront was sizeable and way more that the company needs to operate fora couple of years. Can the remainder be paid out as a one off dividend? Or does the divi have to be paid after year end etc..

What Warthog means is SAR don't do that. They only tell news when there is news. No waffle, they just tell us what is going to happen. Just look at the last few RNS's and you'll know everything you need to know as far as the company is concerned. The Covid thing is new and will, IMO force some updates to be issued before we were going to get them. Let the SP slip. Don.t really care. Could be 10 x today's SP on the sniff of some Covid acknowledgement.

They were retweets. If someone put another tweet out about TYK2 and cytokine storms. SAR will probably retweet. Makes perfect sense. Tim is stating what we have without stating what we have.

We also don't know what our royalties are either.

We'd effectively get a small percentage of of global sales. 1% of 10 billion would give us 2p a share divis every year. We don't know how big the market is but It's probably bigger that 10 billion.

If the deal is for Covid. I can see why they would want to remain anonymous. If they can't solve the Solubility and formulation issues at high doses. They can't mass produce enough for it to be of any value to anyone. Releasing the name and reason would just add to speculation. Much as i'd like all the dumb money to come piling in here. I'd rather we act responsibly and this is something SAR have always done. And also why he tweets are so unusual. Let the Chinese get on with it. If they crack the issues and it is for Covid. We'll be rich.

As RMM says. A good indication of the value the markets apply to a Covid treatment. 6% is billions of dollars.

I was reading an article yesterday. Can't remember where! It was about the 4 pronged approach to looking at Covid treatments.
1 Develop a vaccine - Possibly years away from the 70% of population needed for herd immunity
2 Anti Virals - Drugs in testing now, currently hit and miss but may help until point 3
3 Immunosuppressants - This is where SAR would fit in.
4 Blood plasma from people who had recovered - Would need millions of recovered donors

SAR are currently sitting on a possible solution and one that would be super fast tracked if efficacy was shown.

Good luck iamhappy! that's a proper way to sell up and leave the board. Will but back on the dips, I wonder? :-) I'm hovering around profit but staying put until at least 3p or bust!!

I think a lot of posters misunderstand the NDA thing. NDA are used all the time in business. It doesn't mean there is a deal about to be done. Every time we share data. If it isn't in the public domain there will be an NDA. I'd be really surprised if we haven't got multiple NDA's covering multiple parties. So i'd bet my shares on saying SAR are bound to an NDA if not multiple NDA's. Also. The Covid angle is massively important for SAR. If weren't talking to anyone about TYK2 1801 before Covid, we almost certainly are now.

Or loads of posts have been cut.

Can see yours but nothing for an hour unless it has gone really quiet.