RE: 4 Acid Tests for 4D in next few months14 Apr 2022 06:46
Hi @Michaelhighbar
I totally agree with much of what you say
We do however have to factor in that Biotech’s in the market per sae, especially stateside specifically over the last year have had serious declines in value.
UP to the peak of the pandemic in March 21 Biotech’s were still doing OK but then came the sell off, many seen as overvalued and there were also backlogs at the FDA getting programs approved, also creating lack of interest, concerns over interest rates rising and many Biotech’s not getting funding at all and closing down. Lost appetite for the sector.
https://www.biospace.com/article/biotech-stocks-take-hit-as-wary-investors-look-elsewhere/
The Market fell out of love with biotech’s. Over the last two years 83% are trading below their IPO price. On average at least 27% below their IPO value. So 4D are not on their own in suffering from damaged value.
I would say that 4D have been hit harder than most in the sector, not least due to market sentiment BUT also that dam Oliveria fund closing out following the collapse of Forte, that’s 12% of the company that was sold off and of course the plateau of big shorting syndicates plus two bit short traders jumping on the bandwagon helping the value slide even further. That period has now ended IMO, but our SP has plummeted massively, and company value destroyed in the process.
On a positive note, for new investors here moving in at 40-50p range what an absolute golden opportunity they have… I see this now as not just a solid Biotech play but also a major recovery play.
The good news is that with values on the floor, the sector is starting to pick up. Some Biotech’s are already starting to recover nicely, some big investment deals are starting to get done, M&A on the increase and buying picking up. I really believe it’s our turn now.
Yes, I’m uber bullish here, I’m only vocal where I consider upside is huge but by George, I think the rise from here will be stratospheric. Time will tell, but as I see it the market cap here tonight is painfully low, eye wateringly so and I would go as far as to say that even at a 5 bag from here the stock would still be cheap. We will see.
GLA
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