Member Info for Porky9

@Olderandwiser
The market leader in the IBS space currently is Amitiza which later became lubiprostone. This product alone is in a 3.3bn pa market place

Amitiza was acquired for 1.2bn and In my considered opinion, Blautix® is potentially a far far more effective solution. For one thing Amitiza does not work for all suffers of IBS. The trial results from 4D are higher in effectiveness than when Amitiza was on trials at the same stage when it was acquired and Blautix has zero side effects.

This product was acquired on funded P3. The only thing holding Blautix back from getting a license deal from a pharma where they fund P3 and take through to commercialisation IMO is the FDA delay. Moment we get the FDA approval i suspect a deal can be done on that specific line. Delays have been due to covid, FDA has to be close now????

BUT my point is, lets get some perspective. We are 69m currently, its a bloody joke. Blautix, I just mentioned has possibly the smallest potential and even that line that dwarfs the current mcap.

What is 0518 worth to Merck? a dam sight more than 69m, many many multiples of same frankly i can tell you,,,

See how events unfold

GL

We have explored the extent of shorting and the impact this has had on the Share Price, but it really is quite absurd now how low our market cap is now especially having just had a break though on 0518 proving its effectiveness in Cancer.

Tonight, we sit at a market cap of £69m yet we have a pipeline of 14 different drugs at different stages delivering amazing trial results.
https://www.4dpharmaplc.com/en/developing-science/pipeline

Maybe if they can get Blautix licensed shortly it will result in a re-rate? This drug alone has to be worth well north of £500m based on previous deals. This product IMO would smash the market leader due to it having zero side effects. But this is just one product line. We are crazy cheap. It’s beyond a joke.

1,000 patents in 16 classes, manufacturing capabilities established, amazing trial data and Game Changing Cures for serious issues including Cancer, Parkinson’s, Crohn’s, Multiple Sclerosis, Arthritis, Neurodegeneration, Psychiatric Disorders, Asthma & IBS

As a comparison, Seres Therapeutics which is in our peer group has a pipeline which consists of 6 different drug programs yet has a market cap of $700m USD so circa 8X our value: -
https://www.serestherapeutics.com/our-programs/

They are nowhere near the size and advancement of 4D, they are doing great things with their 109-c. difficile program which is not to be underestimated but no different to how amazing our 0518 Solid Tumour program is with Merck. Something really has to give here.

On Monday an Australian new entrant in our peer group called Microba listed on the Australian ASX market: -
https://www.advfn.com/stock-market/ASX/MAP/stock-news/87753767/microba-completes-successful-ipo

The business has just 2 drug programs just launched. One pre-clinical not even at P1 trial stage yet and one just at Discovery stage, it’s a microscopic compared to where we are: -
https://microba.com/therapeutic-platform/

It’s also started a home diagnostics test facility which is something 4D has capabilities to roll out if it wanted to but revenue from it fairly minimal so practically not worth the effort. Yet this new entry business, you guessed it, is also materially worth more than us. Ridiculous

The whole situation here now has become a total farse IMO. I fully accept that the AIM market really is just becoming a sentiment led trading casino and its only when a take-over or something major lands that stocks get rerated properly but come on….

See how events unfold, I continue to add, put simply either the science has to prevail and license deals get done resulting in a material value change or literally Merck move in and take it out just to support Keytruda, which let’s face it is now highly likely.

GLA

@PhilGekko
I guess this is the culture that has been created by SO winding down his position whilst actively shorting. It's created others like the previous idiot here who will post unfounded comments to support their short position having joined the same party. An update from Duncan regarding Oxford Finance will support but of course this is information we already know, We already know that they have sufficient capital into Q4 and into 2023 with Oxford capital but those short are not really interested in that anyhow are they, or researching what 4D are actually doing or the success in trials. They don't care about that. As you say they would if they needed Cancer treatment but these sorts of people don't think like that.
If it wasn't de-ramping with placings, or filling gaps or trend lines, it would be some other boll@x.

As i see it we must now be close to the tipping point. Bronte have 800,000 short with all the others the number is eyewatering. At some point this lot is going to start closing out and buying back. It will cause a major uplift in SP in the process. SO can't possibly have much left now in relation to the amount short.

What we could do with is one of the further major updates to land now, FDA Agreed, licensing deal, or a new fund or even Merck increasing their holding, some event that acts as a catalyst and brings awareness and coverage to the stock and frightens those short into closing out.

As frustrating as it is, it has to be a matter of time now and i believe that time is closer than we think. We will see. Lets hope ISA Season helps add some buying volumes in the meantime

GLA

The reporting of BUYs and Sell on LSE is at best hopeless half the time.
Manipulation is wild
A few of the further key updates will help, sooner they land the better
GLA

Goes without saying that I’m an advocate of this business, anything that makes a difference in the fields they are supporting gets a big tick from me.

One thing that I do find puzzling though is how these shorting syndicates manage to continue to increase their short positions, where does this stock come from? There must be a deal somewhere. Now, excuse my ignorance here, if anyone closer to the MMs work can point me in the right direction, I would appreciate it. To quantity what I’m referring to, I give the following as a casing point: -

Bronte Capital are currently 800,000 shares short tonight in total. This is .44% and a reduction from .50% on the 23/3. They are not on their own, there are others. Now, in this example they have sold shares they don’t own and keep selling shares in the market to drive prices down increasing their short position.

To increase profits, they buy some back and then sell them again to really rinse the retail Investor and push prices down.
If news lands and prices increase, they quickly sell more they don’t own to try and control the price and maintain down pressure to protect their short. We all get the name of game in this shoddy disgusting practice.

Now then, let’s say something left of field lands. Let’s say Merck table a bid at a few pounds a share, now to buy back the stock they are short they have to buy at a significant premium. How does the MM know they can afford it? What if Bronte were to go bust owing millions for stock they don’t own? Someone somewhere is underwriting this risk are they not?

Let’s say that it’s SO that underwrites it, agreed to loan Bronte the stock in the event of a catastrophe. But meanwhile SO has sold practically all his holding. There would now be risk in the market. IF Oliveira as at today had 800,000 shares left, I would be surprised, so tonight there could well be more short stock that needs buying back than shares that SO wants to sell?

So, what am I missing here?? How long can you risk being massively exposed short for? How long will MMs stand for this? How do they know you can cover it?

Ultimately, to materialise profits or maximise at some point the stock must be brought back but I would be interested in opinions on the above, they must now be past tipping point?. Thoughts anyone? Thanks in advance.

I can see why you might think that
393 trades today 402k sold and 838k buys - twice as many buys as sales yet only 2.2% up
OK Volumes not high but it was over done yesterday, Still massively oversold
100% price manipulation today but no change there this is AIM after all.
Some further updates or strong buying when the ISA season starts will hopefully encourage more shorts to close and add to the volumes.
Onwards and Upwards

@BuyHighSellLow1
Maybe your right... who knows, who cares... you can expect wild swings but ultimately the SP will follow the difference that they are making... Just a Matter of time IMO

Stock is so OVERSOLD now that its eyewatering
Bloody Ridiculous. I dread to think how big the short exposure is. It was up to about 3.7m short two weeks back. Bronte have 800,000 short. You wonder what will be the catalyst to trigger them closing??
Bonfire Night Soon IMO

BUT, lets take just say Bronte with 800,000 short, stock they have sold that they don't own. Is it possible for 4D to take legal action or somehow get MMs to force them to cover their position? what if Bronte went bust? there must be a guarantee or some hold over a block of stock somewhere to cover that position?

Hypothetically, lets say Merck tomorrow said, we want to BUY 4D and we are going to offer £2 a share. How would Bronte close the stock they don't own? what if a bid war started and it was £5. I'm talking hypothetically but you get my drift... has to come from somewhere. Currently MMs on L2 look like they are struggling to fills the buys we already have. Crazy.

Anyone seen situations where the shorting firm is made to close?

Cheers

Another 300k in BUYS just gone on
L2 looks like a rabbit stuck in the headlights.... LOL
Something got to give here....
Never a dull moment..

@TauntonBoy
Genuinely sorry to hear that, I really am. Parkinson's is just a god dam awful illness. Anything that can be done to find cures gets my full backing.
It doesn't matter what age you in life, it really hits you hard to lose people you care about. I'm 54 and age doesn't make things any easier, just miss not being able to have that conversation with them, you know.
Anyhow, don't want to bring the mood down, its depressing enough in here with the share price ...
Take care now
Pork's

Should also attract natural buying volume tomorrow from Retail as new money enters the market at the start of the ISA season. I will be adding 20k to both my son and daughters accounts. Also arranging funds to increase my own holding. More confident than ever that its de-risked since the 0518 data was released.

Now if FDA could get a move on stateside we could blow the doors off this SP this week, wouldn't that be something.

Anyhow, whatever the case with the SP, the 39% reduction on a tumour and extended life still resonates with me. There are a few people in my life that i wish had been around to be on that trial, i can tell you. Can't take money with you can you. It's Just game changing, life changing at 4D and i really wish them continued success with it.

GLA

We have had quite a bashing here on the SP despite the company not only being well capitalised But releasing trial data results that are just truly remarkable and prove that LBPs work.

The new ISA season starts Tuesday so hopefully with new money coming into the markets, we should pick up some here. So we could well see a big uplift next week. Further, if Duncan can update further on some of the reports due that could also boost us. GL

@TheBigHeroRises
I noticed the de-ramping on a couple of my holds where i actively post. Annoying but I'm not the vindictive type but i do have enough firepower to move direction on very small cap stuff. With VAL the poster claims to be in at 60p average, i have a material holding where i'm practically in for free, i could pull the lot if i wanted but that's not my style.

If Duncan releases updates here shortly and positive news that creates buying interest the shorts should start closing, we should see a major bounce. Bronte have 800,000 shares shorts but they are not on their own, sooner that lot buys back the better.

GLA

@HarChris
That's exactly my point. Firstly, i cant see Oxford Finance not supporting two further draw downs especially after the amazing trial results. I mean this is truly game changing stuff but secondly, 4D are in no hurry. There is no urgency, they can raise capital on the NASDAQ later this year or early 2023 if they need to.

Also, i really think a takeover my Merck could hit this shortly. They have just proven effective support with Keytruda, It's a total no brainer, if Merck don't move in one of the other big pharma will. We are talking a whole new class of drugs here proving to be highly effective and side effect free.

GLA

@uxm484
It's good to Troll isn't it ........
I have seen your posting history and now understand why you want to spread FUD here but your quest is quite absurd. There is no uncertainty, only that created by you.

You see the difference here between 4D and VAL is that 4D have sufficient working capital into Quarter 4, in fact 15.5m cash at bank, they also further have draw down facilities with Oxford Finance so they could pull on a further 15m of debt finance PLUS they have a massive R & D rebate due hence are in no hurry to raise ANY capital at the moment as they are secure well into 2023. Add to that licensing revenues and joint partnerships with Merck and well frankly they are very well placed.

Meanwhile, VAL on the other hand where i also own stock but not currently adding to my exposure, faces a guaranteed discounted placing shortly should the extended deadline not result in completion this quarter. You see it only had 598k odd at the end of the last year, they burn 350k a quarter so they run out of cash completely about mid May, a date we are fast approaching. The results out this month around the 20th? will confirm the exact cash position, it could be less than the estimate. And even if it does complete the deal they now want to buy a lab and that will also require a placing to fund it. I will support that placing when it happens as i have confidence in the future of the business and see it as a good idea but i'm not blind to that, i am not blind to the risks over there.

Now currently you are enjoying a bounce on VAL but without deal confirmation that bounce won't hold. Now if you continue to post here with your FUD along with Iceman spreading FUD i am quite prepared to return the favour to you on that board. The SP was damaged here by 16% on Friday after a fall of 8% the day before it so we have had quite a kicking here despite absolutely outstanding and game changing trial data results

So you have had your fun here, you are not invested here, so i would suggest you focus your energy on boards where you are invested. Now give it a rest

In addition:-

All these posts on finance predominantly from Shorter's, there is no urgent need this year. Only on Wednesday Duncan mentioned he is in talks with Oxford Finance hence, i suspect they will likely pull on this facility further this year making another 17m available if they need it.

See the Oxford Finance details:-
https://mobile.twitter.com/MCtwit101/status/1510563218380439557/photo/1

@Sileg
This is the issue with most drugs on the market, the side effects can sometimes be worse than what they are trying to cure. I remember a while back i sustained an injury to my right leg and was put on gabapentin to manage pain control whilst it healed. Jeeze, i was going for wee constantly i was like a watering can all night, i was tired and kept forgetting things and then had trouble getting off it.
It was a blessed relief when i came off them.

All 4Ds Drug lines are proven to be side effect free which i believe is VERY unique in itself.
Good Luck for the next few weeks

@Katstrangler
You are creating pure FUD, you are plucking figures out the air

Read the Results statement and watch the recent interviews.
They have £15.5m cash at bank, a massive R&D Tax Credit taking them into Q4, they are talking to Oxford Finance about two more draw downs later this year which will take them into 2023.

A lot can happen between now and the end of this year, not least licensing deals, joint partnerships, trial sponsorship and the one that concerns me Merck tabling a bid before the SP has fully recovered.

A heck of a lot of distraction from the amazing drug data reports just out, each to own i guess

Meanwhile, to illustrate my point lets just take one of the 14 drug lines, Blautix® for IBS-C and IBS-D
This is just in relation to its advanced IBS cure.

The market leader in this space currently is Amitiza which later became lubiprostone. This product alone is in a 3.3bn pa market place

Amitiza was acquired for 1.2bn and In my considered opinion, Blautix® is potentially a far far more effective solution. For one thing Amitiza does not work for all suffers of IBS. The trial results from 4D are higher in effectiveness than when Amitiza was on trials at the same stage when it was acquired.

Further lubiprostone lists:-
Common side effects:-
nausea
stomach pain or bloating
gas
vomiting
heartburn
headache
dizziness
swelling of the hands, feet, ankles, or lower legs
chest discomfort
tiredness

And serious side effects in some cases where you should contact your doctor immediately if you have any of the following side effects:-
severe diarrhea
shortness of breath or difficulty taking in a breath
chest tightness
fainting
lightheadedness
rash
swelling of the face, lips, mouth, tongue or throat
throat tightness

Meanwhile 4Ds cure for IBS Blautix® has ZERO side effects, its totally 100% proven safe. Which one would you buy?????

As i say the science is delivering results and the SP will take care of itself. We currently have a market cap down to 70m following the raid on Friday.

SH time will come.. matter of time. GLA

You shorter's can create as much FUD as you like. I hope you really get burn't on this one.

Your desperation to create FUD to encourage retail to sell their stock in #DDDD to support your short is truly breathtaking
They have sufficient capital into Q4 and additional funding with Oxford Capital into 2023
I only hope Duncan updates & your short blown out the water

I continue to buy and will give my best efforts to make the stock as expensive as i can for you to buy back. This is the time to BUY not SELL and ISA season starting on Tuesday will also add to new buying volume. That's if a Bid doesn't land in the meantime...

Further WHEN Merck do come knocking and they will, now 0518 is proven and supports Keytruda hopefully you are over exposed on your short and locked out of buying back only at a premium. Can and likely to happen at anytime. Would be poetic justice.

You might think the business is worth FA but i can tell you the current mcap doesn't reflect the value of these drugs out on the open market. Had trial results been dire i would agree BUT they are not, they are game changing, life changing and they have 14 runners at various stages.

See how events unfold

Shorters have no regard for what a business is doing, it’s simply a case of spread as much FUD as possible and encourage as many to sell as possible to reap the rewards.

It’s all stock that ultimately needs buying back so next week will be fun, last one to close out could take a beating. Especially if Duncan drops some of the updates now due not to mention new money coming into the markets Tuesday with the next ISA season starting.

I have no real concerns here, the SP will right itself shortly, the only niggle I have is that now 0518 data proves it is working in the highest risk cancer patients, which really is quite something to extend life and reduce a cancer tumour by 39% and it’s majorly supporting Merck’s Keytruda that with the SP this low they will bid to acquire with a low ball bid say £1.25 just above the placing rate because that is what I would do, would be daylight robbery for long term holder s but we are totally vulnerable now to a low ball bid of that nature.

If an RNS landed Monday to say Merck are in talks it really would no surprise me

Anyhow, GL holders, the science is there, this is ground breaking, life changing stuff. Let’s hope those shorting never need drugs for some of the life’s biggest killers eh, might think differently then.

Have a good weekend