Member Info for Pogo001

Sundezena

My portfolio is made up of ITV shares, yours is made up of Wizzair shares. Now compare the last 12 months, or even the last three. Then add the dividends paid, or those that will be paid to my account in May. Compare this with the losses suffered by Wizzair shareholders. This comparison clearly shows who the clown is. And when it comes to what will happen, always value the present, not the illusions. Especially when we are talking about money.

As usual, most on this forum ignore the facts and the growing threat to Wizzair's share price, watching at the stock market only under the contents of their investment portfolio. Without any reflection. Not my money, not my problem. Common sense and experience dictate that everyone should sit back and enjoy their popcorn. Every rebound in the share price after a decline is an opportunity to short-sell. No solution to the conflict in Iran will solve the supply problems in the jet fuel and oil markets over the next two months. Wizzair and Ryanair attempt to create the impression that they are putting on a good front, knowing that any flight cancellations will sharply reduce demand for new bookings and generate compensation costs. Therefore, they will continue to contribute to this business as long as possible. In the same time others airlines trying to cut their losses. We will see all about true situation in future financial forecasts and the upcoming ones. It's worth considering how the market will react to the losses already booked and the upcoming ones, which are realistically impossible to estimate. To all lovers of coronary artery disease and major adrenaline rushes, I wish you successful doctor's visits. I sat down long time ago in my armchair with a bag of my proverbial popcorn.

Regarding the current ITV share price. For some time now, any major changes have been determined by large, pre-arranged transactions. Historically, the share price has always fluctuated significantly between the two weeks before and the two weeks after the dividend. The direction of the fluctuations depended on market conditions, but also on the strategy adopted by the largest portfolios. Therefore, we typically saw either a low share price on the ex-dividend date, followed by an upward move, or the opposite, where, starting from a post-dividend price of around 80-82 pence, we managed to drop to yearly lows. In the meantime, we could observe the typical transfer of shares between portfolios to record the dividend in specific accounts or to properly settle the end of the tax year. This pattern has been recurring for years. What's different is the current all-time low free float ITV shares. In other words: the small players are selling off, while the big fish are still accumulating shares. Will this prevent the price from fluctuating between 70 and 84 pence and force a stabilization around 80 pence (until Comcast's decision)? I don't know. A lot depends on the external market. Because uncertainty forces liquidity. And that's worth remembering.

Inthedark1

I suggest carefully reading all comments, rather than relying on individual ones. The stock market is governed by psychology. All data is merely used by large players to build a line of growth or decline in share prices. This is especially important during such pivotal moments in the market as a whole, as we are currently experiencing. Therefore, it's crucial to be aware of potential threats, without overlooking any strong incentives that could generate large price changes. Comcast – large transactions are concluded quietly, and external market turmoil always causes them to be delayed. And I don't think I need to repeat why. Therefore, expecting the announcement of this transaction tomorrow, next week, or next month is simply foolish. Because in this way, we are only intensifying our own expectations for the share price. In the long term, what matters is our assessment of both the company that concludes the transaction and the one that doesn't materialize. And my opinion on this matter has not changed. That's why I'm not selling ITV shares. However, as I wrote, I am carefully assessing the risk. So I treat £20k in my ISA as a safety net. Today there are plenty of opportunities to earn 10% monthly. But for what? Or, to say it in another way ... greed can be painful. I value the opinions of others, especially made by BigEgo. Even though most of it is information I already know, it's nice to see someone who has their brain in the right place, uses it well, and treats the exchange of information on this forum as a selfless service to other investors.

Returning to my own perspective, I present many of my opinions here, always with the understanding that they are influenced by my ownership of a significant stake in ITV, and by the fact that, along with a group of my closest friends and acquaintances, we have a stake of over 4.4 million ITV shares. Therefore, in an effort to be honest, I show my transactions and discuss my concerns. That's why I sometimes repeat overheard, not necessarily fully verified, information - but always I say it that way, that's only someone point of view. No one is obliged to use this information / opinion or agree with it. Just like with the opinions of BigEgo or anyone else. This discussion is intended to help each of us evaluate an investment in ITV shares. However, in the end, each of us makes the choice.

That large transaction at the beginning of the day could have been a simple error or a prearranged transaction. However, those 100k Wizzair shares didn't appear out of nowhere. And judging by the trading volume up to now, most likely that this shares still didn't make it back into trading. What does this mean? Considering the volume of current transactions and the demand at each price level, it seems that exiting such a purchase and converting that paper profit into real money could be a significant problem. This is especially true since demand and volume were weakened, the charm of the opening transaction has faded, and now doubts are beginning to emerge. Even such an erroneous sale of 100k shares instead of 100 would have to come from a large portfolio (to sell, you need to physically hold the shares in your account). This means that whoever has to buy them back will certainly strive to minimize losses. Regardless today much more important is the context of information flowing into the market regarding potential financial losses made by airlines is crucial. And we're increasingly hearing about truly significant amounts of lost revenue and profit. This is exactly what I've been saying since mid-March. Therefore, I advise against counting on the value of short positions in Wizzair shares falling below 10%. A further increase in their number is more likely, following a correction in which short-term traders took profits. For those who can count and observe the market, I advise tracking the prices at which these first 10% of short positions were opened. In my opinion, the average exceeds 1400 pence, which guarantees both good security and a profit that can support further for opening new short positions.

But of course, I'll soon be hear that I'm a troll. And that, pessimistically, by the end of the year, Wizzair shares won't be worth 900 pence, but at least 1,500. Because of course, even though we'll soon see losses of €300-400 million, it means nothing. Ber all things are supposed to be fine. Because Iran, Ukraine, the Middle East... and Europe in general means whole market for Wizzair. Despite the analysts, despite the market, despite the financial data. Because what counts is faith (in miracles), and people like me are trolls and idiots.

But of course, I'll soon be hear again that I'm a troll. And that, pessimistically, by the end of the year, Wizzair shares won't be worth 900 pence, but at least 1,500. Because of course, even though we'll soon see maybe losses of €350-450 million, it means nothing. Ber all things are supposed to be fine. Because Iran, Ukraine, the Middle East... and Europe in general means whole market for Wizzair. Despite the analysts, despite the market, despite the financial data. Because what counts is faith (in miracles), and people like me are trolls and idiots.

And now. Oil prices are falling. 150 tankers are ready to buy and load in the US. The fuel crisis averted. Negotiations with Iran continue. Although what is happening: Trump suddenly states that an angry Iran refuses to make concessions. The ceasefire breaks down. The US blocks the Strait of Hormuz. The constant mate continues. Oil prices are rising to over $100, but because of oil from the US, there's no panic. US drilling companies have made billions of dollars. The conflict with Iran is on hold for the next three to six months until economic conditions and limited military action force Iran to make a deal. In the meantime, a minor American military intervention in Cuba, causing the fall of communist rule, allows Trump to once again declare his personal success on his way to the Nobel Peace Prize. Oil prices are stable, above $100. It takes some getting used to. You think this is absurd and stupid. Unfortunately, in recent years, reality has turned out to be even more absurd.

As for Wizzair, I maintain my view. We'll close this year in the 800-900 pence range. And that's an optimistic scenario.

The calm before the storm..

Investing in specific stocks isn't just about assessing a given company's potential. It's primarily about assessing the global factors that influence the environment in which our chosen company operates. After all, profits aren't created by pure willpower. Unexpected technical problems, armed conflicts, or natural disasters can disrupt the best investment plans. As investors, we must consider all of this to ensure that the worst-case scenarios don't become the best-case scenarios.

So let's be realistic first, and then start making money. Listening to the pessimists is our voice of reason. Because ultimately, we're the ones making investment decisions.

Regarding Iran, the situation will remain unstable for a long time to come. On the one hand, we have a defeated Trump, who is already feeling domestic pressure from the US (not to mention pressure from his allies) to end the conflict. In the background are the rapidly depleting US military potential, rising inflation, and the upcoming midterm elections. Other players include Europe and the Western world, eager to end this conflict, which is devastating their economies, as quickly as possible. But that's not all. The current state of the conflict and the potential political solutions certainly do not satisfy Israel and the countries in the region, as they strengthen Iran's position and guarantee further problems and armed conflicts in the coming years. From Iran's perspective, its politicians see that they can still gain a great deal. They know that they are actually winning this conflict politically and want to turn this into concrete political and economic benefits. And that's the best recipe for prolonging the conflict or breaking off negotiations. In my opinion, even though we're not economically prepared, we can't allow Iran to achieve its long-term goals. Because it will backfire on us all. Western political restraint, as a remedy for economic problems or threats, has brought us the still-unresolved conflict in Ukraine. The long-term costs of non-intervention are much greater. Another question is how we would react today to China's aggression towards Taiwan. This demonstrates the scale of the problem, the West's economic and military incompetence, and the stupidity of the current way of thinking. Because hiding growing problems never solves them; it only increases pressure and costs.

Tawse57

I agree with you, but I guarantee that government leaders know exactly what the situation is and what's coming. Ordinary people, including investors, are naive or greedy. They still believe in miracles and, above all, they don't realize the complexity of the global economy. In the UK, we're seeing the first alarm signals. Food producer inflation exceeded 7% in March, while the official rate was barely above 1%. And we're talking about the beginning of this conflict's impact on prices. April and May will reveal the true scale of the problem. We can expect food price increases of up to 20%, depending on the product. Increases in the prices of transportation and raw materials such as aluminum and sulfur, as well as products like Styrofoam (70% price increase), will all translate into a sharp increase in prices and the cost of living. consequently, consumer demand will also decline. I think we won't see a real chance for an improvement in sentiment until the turn of the year. But that's only if the situation with Iran calms down. Otherwise, we're facing a rather bleak and uncertain future. All of this is bound to impact stock valuations and trigger certain migration of investment capital. Because the market abhors a vacuum, and long-term investment and speculative capital must earn a living.

The 4.85 - point drop is what I feared when yesterday the dividend set point was 79.60p and with heavy volume, we even reached the daily high of 80.80p for ITV shares. Unfortunately, I think today's level doesn't mark the end of the share price decline. On the other hand, we have a 3.30p dividend, which will credit our accounts in seven weeks. Additionally, while the share price of 74.75p may be concerning, it realistically represents a value of 78.05p for the shareholder, which isn't so bad in today's market. The potential psychological limit is again set by the range (70:86p), so we'll see how it plays out. From a long-term investment perspective, our passive income is growing steadily, and we're currently waiting for the start of the FIFA World Cup (which will confirm projected by ITV advertising revenue) and the outcome of the negotiations with Comcast. Until then, the share price will likely continue to move in sync with speculation and the military and political activity surrounding Iran. This provides significant excitement and the potential for losses/gains for those with spare cash and a still-available £20,000 limit in their ISA. From my perspective, we shouldn't change our approach regarding our ITV shares, waiting for the reasons I mentioned earlier.

To summarise the performance of my investment portfolio since February 2022: Based on the investment in ITV shares that began then, combined with the gradual accumulation and reinvestment of most dividends, it looks as follows. I still have 540150 ITV shares and with about £17825 May' dividend payment, my total passive income from ITV will reach the amount of £103095.45. It gives me total spend down to £340179 and average price £0.629786 per ITV share.

All the best for the real long term ITV shareholders

I won't bet on the year-end share price. I'm not a fortune teller, just an investor. Realistically, after today's news regarding March inflation from food producers, I don't expect the stock to reach above 800 pence in December.

Thinking doesn't hurt (though not everyone does). What does hurt are poor investment decisions, poor judgments, lack of knowledge, and simple human greed. I advise you to remember this.

I'm pleased with today's gains. I'm glad I was wrong and the share price on the dividend date is above 75 pence. However, my £20,000 ISA limit for the current tax year remains intact. No extra buy, no any sell. The reasons for today's increase are divorced from market realities, and above all, from the ongoing conflict in Iran. This means that the principle of "protect your capital," although in my case only covering new investments, is the fundamental one currently in effect. We'll see soon whether the market will prevent the share price from falling to around 72 pence. This price level takes into account the benefits of the acquired dividend. In any case, until the World Cup starts and Comcast makes a decision, we're in a wait-and-see mode.

All the best for the real ITV long term shareholders

This way of ending this conflict is a mistake. We will all suffer the consequences. And in reality, it's not the end of the armed conflict at all, but merely a suspension of its most violent actions, giving both sides a chance to regroup. I think it's much more advisable for Iran - it will give it a chance to resume mass-scale drone production. For Trump, it's supposed to be a political breather, although in reality, his party has already lost the upcoming midterm elections. I think the conflict will flare up again within a few days, and due to the US military weakening, it will also draw the Gulf countries into the fray, as the current solution leaves them at Iran's mercy. In response, Trump will officially support his allies, and we will return to the previous situation. What will change is the military support of other Gulf countries in the fight against Iran. Unfortunately, this is a war of attrition, and as long as Iran believes it can blackmail its neighbors and Europe, it will not make concessions.

In any case, congratulates the holders of Wizzair shares who have divested. The high, but not enormous, turnover and the lack of panic in short positions indicate that my concerns are justified. Furthermore, the enormous costs of this conflict, even if it were to end immediately, still lie ahead. This means that a decline in the Wizzair share price to levels below 800 pence is still likely.

In today's world, not much is certain. But?! The dividend is in two days, and then we wait until May for payment. In the meantime, something might move in the Comcast and SKY case, although in the current political climate, I believe all similar financial solutions (including this one) are frozen. The positive thing is that there's no announcement about a halt in negotiations. And getting back to the dividend: once the rights are established, won't it be cheaper than those 3.3 pence? We have that risk and that the share price will drop under 70 pence, what I said before. That is the reason why I'm not adding more shares to my portfolio, despite the start of the new tax year. However, the remaining, previously purchased shares remain intact. This guarantees as for myself almost £18,000 in passive income from dividend. And it will remain that way regardless of market turmoil.

All the best for the real long term ITV shareholders

Well, Trump gave you Easter. Tuesday, however, turns out to be a return to normalcy. In the background, we have new oil prices set by Saudi Arabia and the Arab Emirates, extra $27 per barrel sold to Europe. And at the current market price, this already means a level of around $140 for us. Everyone here probably knows how this will affect inflation, consumer demand, and airline profits. My forecast from the Thursday before Easter may have shifted and moved by a few days, but the £7.50 figure is still valid. The other side of this forecast - £9.20 definitely came true. Incidentally, I believe that in my initial scenario, the price trough for Wizzair shares would have been flatter, but because so many people believe that this war is going to finnish, because of people's greed - it will be a much more painful. So, that could be very interesting. Hope dies last.

Shopping by ISA. We have a look how much money would like to invest small investors.

It's looking good but on my opinion we finish tomorrow about 74.5-75. I hope, that I'm not right.

All the best for the real long term ITV shareholders