Reality6 Apr 2026 12:39
This "drop" in oil prices is, in reality, a return to Thursday's levels, just before the stock market closed for Christmas. That's just the reality. In any case, the scenarios of an Easter military action didn't materialize, although (judging by the closing price of the entire stock market) such a situation has likely already been absorbed into valuations and forecasts by the largest financial portfolios. Apparently, the next 48 hours are key, but knowing Trump, that's not necessarily the case. Furthermore, an American withdrawal from military action (in a realistically losing position) won't actually solve the problem; it will instead shift it onto Europe. A strong and aggressive Iran, still supporting Russia, is a truly irreconcilable long-term problem for all of us. Unfortunately, regardless of one's attitude toward Trump, only he can solve this problem. Destroying the Iranian regime economically and then leaving the solutions to an officially uninvolved Europe offers the opportunity to weaken Russia, buys time for the rest of NATO to prepare militarily for another problems, and, contrary to appearances, offers the regime a chance to save face. However, the economic and political costs will be borne by all of us. These costs are inevitable. The ongoing degradation of the region's chemical industry, tourism, and shipping industries—these are impossible to quickly rebuild, even if the conflict were immediately ended. I believe this poses the greatest threat to financial markets and stock markets, which continue to underestimate the reality of what lies ahead. As I said before: The holidays will be over, and we'll all have to contend with rapidly rising prices for literally everything, as oil prices have practically doubled. Soon, we'll also experience shortages and sharp price increases for aluminum, sulfur, and industrial gases. Tough times are coming for industry, and consequently, for consumers.
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