In my opinion29 Mar 2026 15:09
Iran. ITV and the FIFA World Cup in the USA. Comcast and SKY deal.
The tense situation in Iran, rising airfare prices and indirect costs for fans, and US visa restrictions (for both fans and national team members) are, contrary to appearances, good news for ITV. They mean an increased role for direct television coverage, which will likely result in a shift of some advertisers' funds towards this direction. The primary threats remain the possibility of the World Cup being canceled, postponed, or threatened by terrorists during its duration. However, the first two, i.e. cancellation or postponement, are unlikely (if only because they are not held only in the USA, but also because of the decline in American prestige in such a case and we should not forgetting about the costs. So, despite fears, this championship will probably be a financial success for ITV. It is difficult to predict whether and how it will affect the ITV share price, as the market will take into account concerns about Iran in its valuations. However, in the long term, even after a sharp decline, we should return to at least the current price levels. The agreement with SKY, which I believe is essential, at least for Comcast, means 35-50 pence extra growth per ITV share, which we should immediately see in the valuation. The separation of STUDIO will attract a large group of institutional and individual investors to the ITV shares, with speculative capital at the forefront. So, despite the general pessimism associated with the market situation caused by the outbreak of the war with Iran, and the medium-term threat of a price decline, even to around 60 pence, I think the long-term picture is better than the share price rally suggests. This doesn't mean that fresh capital isn't finding better-priced and less risky short-term investments. In fact, I'll probably treat my private new ISA limit after April 6th this year that way.
I'm trying to keep my emotions in check for tomorrow. As I wrote, on the dividend record date, I expect ITV's valuation to be around 75 pence per ITV share. What will happen next, with the escalating conflict with Iran, the upcoming US land action (I think nothing will be resolved without it and it's inevitable), and without clear declarations regarding the Comcast deal—I prefer not to make predictions, although it may be difficult time for the ITV shares price.
All the best for the real long term ITV shareholders