Member Info for Pogo001

If things are as good as some people say, where is the demand for shares? So far, an hour of trading has passed and we have a paltry volume of 65,000 Wizzair shares, with a rise to 910 pence. It's easy to push the price up, but even easier to put it down.

Stille

The speculative increase in the Wizzair share price by 30 points (over 3%) on Friday is now finding its way out....

I'm curious when our speculative short positions (not those securing shares held) will conclude that deducting the dividend after April 9th ​​won't weaken the ITV share price, but will relatively mitigate the impact of potential declines. It may not seem like much, but those 20 million shares in short positions represent a multi-day supply from small investors,.. if they want to sell your shares. Today, we're in a state of stagnation with minimal volume. As I've written before, in my opinion those who were supposed to sell shares have sold, while those who want to buy still believe in an opportunity. The war in Iran hasn't provided the basis for such an opportunity so far. Time is clicking.

This entire situation doesn't change my view on one thing. Regardless of Trump and Netanyahu's intentions -this war, which many see as foolish, a conflict over oil and influence, political survival, or imagined honors - this war was necessary and should have broken out at least 10 years ago. It would have protected Europe from the aggressive policies of not only Iran but also Russia, as well as China's covert support. I hope that ultimately it will bring a favorable outcome not only for the Trump administration but also for the entire region and the rest of the world. Iran's defeat is a red card to all regimes, a warning that there are no more sacred cows, and that any dictator could wake up at night to the sound of bombs exploding outside their windows. It is also a warning to China, which, if it wanted to, could build its power based on goodwill, not fear. Their economic power would be a powerful magnet in this case, and their policies would complement the inevitable expansion. Today, their actions deter potential allies, and the political examples of Hong Kong and Tiananmen continue to demonstrate that this country seeks to dominate, not be a partner. Therefore, on the Iran issue, I side with Trump and Israel, regardless of the costs we incur. Because the consequences of defeat would not only spread throughout the region but also affect us, for many the next years to come. This problem should have been resolved by force years ago, without taking about democracy, which the other side uses against us.

Teddy100

Hopes and prayers have nothing to do with reality. Currently, since Friday, during the closing time of European stock exchanges, we have another increase in oil prices, ranging from 3-4% (after Friday's close of trading at +3.11%). Let's wait to see how Asian stock markets react when trading begins on Sunday. As I've written many times, most of the happy Wizzair shareholder's here are still delusional. Not to mention the fact that they don't care about the opinions published by people like me. However, it is foolish to ignore analysts' opinions regarding the impact of the current conflict on all costs incurred by airlines, in the background its impact on the tourism industry, and consequently on demand for air services. Currently, the market is not realistically pricing in costs and losses beyond the end of March. However, faith in the possibility of restoring an adequate supply of crude oil, and therefore also of aviation fuel, is slowly fading. As I've already written, I believe the average price per barrel will exceed $120 by the end of this year, which will translate into at least a doubling of the price of jet fuel since mid-January. This also means a 10-20% loss in global air travel (the regional market will be hit hardest, as it has the lowest margins and the highest percentage of fuel in costs). In such a scenario, we'll also face a consumer market, as airlines will compete on price for every ticket sold, slashing margins to avoid losing slots. Liquidity concerns are slowly starting to creep into the airline order market, with the largest Asian and Middle Eastern airlines being the first to suspend orders for new aircraft, announcing a broad review of options based on new market realities. The rest of the market will soon face this, although Wizzair shareholders from this forum will probably consider this situation beneficial, because "the wonderful Wizzair" will remain unmoved with the chance of receiving the ordered planes sooner... This year will be a test of the survival of many airlines.

Let's hope all the confusion in Iran isn't further compounded by the collapse of the investment bubble on AI and the decline in BTC price to the $20,000 mark. The recent upward movement in BTC's valuation is merely a capital flight from Iran and the region. After all, it's easier to transport a USB than 100 kg of gold. And that's BTC's only advantage, which, however, also demonstrates its weakness and lack of value compared to the tangible value of investments in the market for goods, not ideas (and if I'm right, it will lose its future to a stablecoin, representing a value based on specific currencies).

Doesn't matter. The future and especially next 9 -12 months of Wizzair and a whole flying industry isn't looking good.

YesIam

I said that he's only capable of rude and idiotic posts with no substance, and he's acting like a teenager, reacting to the hate he gets at school. The post has been removed ;)

DavidKov

I see my comment about you has been deleted. That doesn't change the fact that, aside from barking, I haven't heard any substantive comments from you. FILTERS.

To all those observing and commenting on the changes in the ITV share price, volume, strange block trades, or the sudden price swings between 4:30 and 4:35 p.m., I would like to remind you that it's the end of the tax year, and immediately afterward, the dividend is booked. Therefore, any profits or losses generated during the fiscal year, as well as any future dividends, should be credited to the "appropriate" accounts. And that's exactly what happens, as it does every year. The reality is that in a falling market for most shares, ITV shares are performing more than well.

Personally, I'm hoping (as I wrote last week) I won't have to invest my tax-free ISA allowance above 85-90 pence. This will give me a healthy yield of around 4%, or an additional £480 when the dividend is paid in May.

All the best for the real long term ITV shareholders.

Garydav2

A crash suggests a quick, corrective rebound. I currently believe we're in for a 3-5% slowly daily decline, sometimes bigger or less, which should attracting "bargain" buyers and causing a gradual price decline and lost of capital. The ceiling? It doesn't really matter. We could see 500-550. A slow move generates larger losses, but it also allows for a hedged short position, so when the time comes, you can either own a large block of shares (counting on a retracement and consolidation on the price level 30-50% higher than minimum) or exit the market without real losses. Unfortunately, the average individual Wizzair shareholder, with little cash, is at a disadvantage here at the end he will be at losses. People will adapt or perish. Nothing more.

Do you think you're right? Do you want to fight reality and the market? No problem! Buy Wizz Air shares. Average the purchase price of these shares .., again, again and again. Try to catch local corrections, if you can afford it. But can you afford it and do you have enough capital to ignore market realities?

I wish you all a lot of fun. Especially when it comes to checking the valuation of your investment portfolio.

UPS... should be:

If the conflict lasts longer and we see market oil prices in the 120-150 USD

Why doesn't this surprise me?

What now?

Now we're moving on to the long-term pessimistic scenario. So, it's time to test the 760-720 pence level. Will that end the fun? If the conflict begins to turn political by the end of the April, we'll see consolidation with movements around the 700-850 pence level. If the conflict lasts longer and we see market oil prices in the 120-150 pence range for weeks (not like more than a few days), then any pessimistic scenario is likely. Just calculate Wizzair's standard cash burn (regardless of the situation), factor in flight cancellations, compensation, a decline in traffic, and an increase in unit costs per passenger.

To all those who think I'm an idiot, who think I'll respond to their taunts or have an obligation to do so, I recommend closely monitoring the value of your investment portfolio based on Wizzair shares.

A correction of the downward trend from the first "pain level" at 840 pence in my optimistic scenario. High volume above 1.7 million on the rebound, allowing latecomers to sell and exit. There is no real chance of tanker convoys, a quick reduction in oil prices, or an end to the conflict – I think until the US and Israel achieve their military objectives and the current political leadership of Iran is eliminated. "Trump's empty talk" - No - maybe he is stupid but only for idiots, as he is understandable and it tones down the panic mood. There is no real chance of a decline in oil prices – we should expect a significant increase in the average price, I think to at least $100-110 annually. Given the negative developments, I wouldn't be surprised if the price go up to around $150-170, with an annual average of $120-130 (remember the $60 trough at the beginning of the year). A collapse in demand due to rising prices, a medium-term increase in inflation, and a hit to industrial production, also through the lifeblood of international transport. Consequently, the tourism market is also being refocused by consumers who are switching from global to local markets, reducing expenses and travel risks. And fortunately, we still haven't had any acts of terrorism, which will become increasingly likely as the armed conflict drags on.

Why doesn't this surprise me?

What now?

OPTIMISM

I have nothing against optimism. Let's see if it finds the strength to support capital eagerly buying discounted shares in a market that remains volatile.

Don't pay attention to my pessimism or optimism. Think. And clearly assess your financial capabilities and existing investment portfolio. I know my pain threshold, as well as my investment opportunities and the risks I accept. You can try to fight the market. However, when the financial resources for further averaging run out, what remains is an emptiness and the awareness that everything we did was foolish.

Always is better to make no profits than to sink into losses.

YesIam

Wizzair will be able to recharge only small parts of this costs in to the customers. However, excessive increases in ticket prices, coupled with rising living costs, will significantly reduce demand. Therefore, transferring more than 30-40% of the losses to ticket prices is unrealistic. Furthermore, tickets already sold, together with registered and paid charter flights are practically untouchable and will generate significant losses. The potential for profit in the American market in the context of the FIFA World Cup only seems lunatic dream. Wizzair won't risk further losses.

I suspect and I hope, that all the impatient bargain hunters hoping for a cheaper price have closed their long positions on ITV. Now the question is, who was buying and generating a volume of 6.5 million shares on the buy side by 1 p.m., with an average price exceeding 86 pence? ;)

And me...? ;) I'll wait for an increase in ITV's share rating, maybe another reported increase in share ownership by BlackRock or different "big fish",

and at the end for the growing nervousness among those who sold shares while the price continues to trend slowly east.

What will the release of oil reserves achieve? I think we'll initially see prices drop to around $90-95 per barrel. However, the price will quickly return to the $100-105 range, where it should remain for the foreseeable future. Why? Because without progress in the war, larger declines are unlikely. A breakthrough must occur, and this could be achieved, for example, by the assassination of another religious Iranian leader together with their army losses, the destruction of a potential rackets & drones threat to fuel supplies and refineries in the region, and the launch of maritime oil transport based on military and financial guarantees from the US. Until then, we'll likely face significant fluctuations, and prices above $150 could become a reality.

Ups...

"They won't accept this" - I am talking about USA & Israel

Survive = win

They won't accept this. The only solution for Iran is to surrender its uranium reserves, halt its nuclear and weapons programs, lose its delivery systems and missiles themselves, and achieve a political thaw focused on cooperation with the US, religious freedom, and limiting the power of the ayatollahs. Or chaos will reign in the region, oil resources will fall under US control, and politically and financially, Iran will become another Libya mixed with Iraq.

Thinking about politics or the capital market itself through the prism of your investment portfolio is unfortunately the cause of financial losses.