Member Info for Plebleens

Bays - clearly not lost money but new projects (reps ok deal) need financing.

SOL should come down now imo, as the new investors receive their allocation, they hand back the shares that they borrowed and pre sold to pay for the tax implications…windfall levy will have caused some massive headaches…should mean the selling pressure has now ended…no more large ut trades

Windfall levy couldn’t have come at a worse time for EIG , no wonder the buyback was put in place so quickly….and helped mop up the pre selling of the tax liabilities of the new investors (possibly US hedge funds)?

EIG would like to make clear that:

No shares of the Company were sold as part of this distribution.
Following this distribution, EIG will remain the largest shareholder of the Company, holding approximately 16% of its outstanding shares through managed vehicles and proprietary ownership.
R. Blair Thomas and Steven Farris will remain as Chairman and Director, respectively, of the Company.
The distribution is a taxable event for certain EIG affiliated shareholders, so some of these shareholders may sell shares to cover such tax obligations as and when necessary.
“Today, EIG has distributed shares in Harbour Energy to our fund investors. As EIG is still the largest shareholder following the distribution, we remain committed to the sector, confident in the Company’s current strategy and supportive of its management team,” said R. Blair Thomas, EIG’s Chief Executive Officer.

And there’s your answer to the stock on loan…borrowed and sold to pay for the tax implications of the ‘new’ investors.

Mmm jeffferey …bit unspock like…as 12 months ago , Brent was $70 ish , gas was under 100p and hbr had $1b more debt, wasn’t paying a dividend and not buying 5% of the company back ….,not sure how I got it so wrong! Should have stuck to my technicals and beloved 26d ema…..if it wasn’t for those meddling kids….

Think the conclusion from both of us is that the Euroclear SOL isn’t sinister this time and the sell off has been all part of the worldwide oil stock reset /profit take/ commodity recession worry just with higher Greeks than the rest. Indonesia could be a game changer as long as xi doesn’t continue to poke his nose in

Yes I know the difference between EIG and GIC! And your EIG theory is valid but still a small fry amount of money compared to the size of the potential deal. Unless you hive off the Repsol/Sinopec nsea assets into HBR? Need to work out what value that has and if it can be separated from the rest of the upstream. Sadly don’t think it saves you 91p in the pound under current legislation….although would be mega if it did. The GIC connection was trying to work out why they sold down and maybe that’s all part of their ESG agenda

Yep, just trying to join the dots…about the synergies of Repsol upstream in the North Sea ….and GIC a major green investor with Sinopec . …

Repsol Sinopec Resources UK is an oil and gas exploration and production company operating in the North Sea.

The company is a joint venture between Repsol and Addax Petroleum UK Limited, a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Petrochemical Corporation (Sinopec Group). It arose from the acquisition, in 2015, by Repsol, of the global assets of the former Talisman Energy Inc, including its 51% equity interest in the joint venture, previously called Talisman Sinopec Energy UK.
Our assets include producing oil fields, major new developments and a number of assets that have ceased production or are approaching decommissioning.

Based in Aberdeen, Scotland, we have interests in 48 fields, of which we operate 38, on the UK Continental Shelf with 11 offshore installations (ten fixed and one floating) and two onshore terminals - at Flotta in Orkney and at Nigg in the Cromarty Firth. Supported by our shareholders we have a long-term commitment to the UKCS.

….Or hedge fund (or another private equity) asks investment bank for a leveraged hbr position and gets charged sweetly for it on a daily basis . Bank then borrows stock from EIG or similar shareholder for a fee to offset their exposure and locks in the profit…only problem is that 9.33% is a chunky position …unless your name is Warren Buffett or an M&A specialist…

To clarify they said US hedge fund Length, using CFD for a more leveraged position and being lent stock to offset their position….they didn’t see it as a concern…but they said that about ARCM ….but that was a bet about the company going bust and offset against the debt, which under current price regime looks highly unlikely especially with the debt trading without a discount.

Jefff is talking about the cftc report

Login as a guest under my euroclear to get free access to the data. Capricorn and tullow both have reasonable sized stock on loan numbers but tullow also has declared shorts on fca spreadsheet and likely all to do with the merger. SSE and Centrica both had large SOL numbers bu they started from earlier in the year; also with no declared shorts above 0.5%

IR explain the SOL as US hedge fund CFD positions and reiterated that EIG would have to declare via tR1 if their position had changed. Although still very opaque . But with current rapid reduction in debt, there shouldn’t be another ARCM like incident….the Neptune angle is also still intriguing…but why would EIG let another PE cash out before them although would make a monster upstream titan. further windfall levy legislation changes before Monday with all the ministerial chaos hopefully.

Gas curve still above 400 winter 2022/23, and above 290 winter 22/23…phenomenal….physical oil tighter than …and that’s before the Chinese teapots start rebuying to cure the product /refining problem… Concur on your bullish divergence on the RSI and the chart signal rarely fails… mirror of Talos is unreal and quashes some of the private equity bs on hbr that keeps getting spouted…Citibank morse has already been stopped out once already this year…not the smartest commodity traders on the street and small shop pinching pennies off the back end of the curve, and small fry on the street…looking like a double up tomorrow but suspect that we api nonsense will be bought up tomorrow….

June stock on loan average 9.33% , virtually unchanged from May and more likely slight increase from the share but backs reducing total stock. Allegedly created by US funds trading cfd rather than owning outright stock. Still no actual short positions over 0.5% showing on the FCA register.

Winter gas curve all over 400p /therm today. Dated Brent has also been trading $5 over actual Brent price and is what Hbr sells plenty of its physical oil against. Extra FCF more than offsetting the windfall levy before the project incentive offset taken into consideration.

Interesting push back from Sam Laidlaw (Neptune) in FT over the weekend , asking for current NSea project spends to be included in the offset rather than fresh projects, which have a time lag in generating new offset costs. Also hedging losses need to be taken into account…guess we will find out next week, if the lobbying has had any effect.

And for the chartists, and the more cautious looking for an entry, watch for a break of that 26d EMA… solid resistance yesterday but has been a key line on the bigger moves up and down. Currently around 381is

That’s winter 23/24 gas curve above 230! Imagine the cash situation in Dec .23 if the Great Depression hasn’t ridden into town

I’m totally with you OnedB, Dec 22 has settled at an incredible 391.53! And winter 23 gas is all above 230. Unhedged volumes are driving fcf through the roof. OPEC have very little in the tank… just hope get to see the hbr numbers sooner rather than later …have to suspect like others that the buyback volume will be done by Aug results and likely a vote to repeat.

Impossible for them to put out any ‘even with the windfall levy, everything will be more than alright’ after vehemently objecting to it….and the final legislation has not been written into law…suspect they have enough projects being brought forward to offset, should their be absolutely no changes to the current format (but suspect there will be tweaks)…and to repeat with timpan results due in next couple of weeks, the buybacks would not be progressing at such a pace if there was mediocre news on the way…..

Fully back in….good luck all

If Timpan results are not due til early July, judging by the current rate of share buy backs, doesn’t look like they’re going to be a disappointment …even with those Chinese walls in place….

UK Gas spiking up 32% on the major delay in bringing back the LNG terminal and US gas plunging as a result

Sadly unlikely to hear Timpam news before July and also no company response on the windfall levy until they have fully lobbied/engaged with the government, before it gets put into law ahead of the summer recess, meaning the ravages of wider markets dominate and keep the legacy holders chipping away…reasons enough for why I am out for the next week or two , but the fcf of the company is too hard to ignore and all will come good eventually, and oil price is not collapsing any time soon, so will be a great investment going forward.